nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Believe in the day before rule in effect... alright maybe not.... what was everyone's forecast highs today and how are we verifying so far? Forecast high was 96F here in Dobbs Ferry. Currently 91.8/72....we probably won't make the forecast but close enough. Dewpoints are miserably high, just a total yuck airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 MAV/MET are 98/99 for them again tomorrow. Is it possible this is the hottest air of the whole summer? 2008 redux? You seeing any signals for winter yet, HM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Forecast high was 96F here in Dobbs Ferry. Currently 91.8/72....we probably won't make the forecast but close enough. Dewpoints are miserably high, just a total yuck airmass. Definitely not enough "mixing out" going on that's for sure. Does anyone remember the heatwaves of 1995? They had considerably higher dewpoints than anything last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Newark's dewpoint is considerably lower at 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Definitely not enough "mixing out" going on that's for sure. Does anyone remember the heatwaves of 1995? They had considerably higher dewpoints than anything last year. Yeah, I think it would get warmer if we had the higher dewpoints mixed out...mixing is just not that great today so we're not tapping any of the really dry air that would allow temperatures to rise faster. Also, the lack of a downsloping breeze this morning probably hurt our chances in Westchester to bag upper 90s. HPN is NW@10 right now and reporting 91/66, so it's starting to get in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Holding at 94.6. I had to remove my pullover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 HRRR getting more and more bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 kewr broke their record high of 97. 98 as of 4 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 MAV/MET are 98/99 for them again tomorrow. Is it possible this is the hottest air of the whole summer? really already? on June 8th? that would be pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 really already? on June 8th? that would be pretty lame LOL it doesn't get much hotter than upper 90s here, dude. HM, care to share any thoughts about the winter? Really want to hear your thinking with the QBO being more negative, ENSO looking to remain neutral-negative/weak Niña, and the -PDO holding its ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 HRRR getting more and more bullish the convection is probably going to stay well to our north http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=New_York&numimages=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 really already? on June 8th? that would be pretty lame Yesterday's conversation at this time revolved around that idea, so I was sort of referencing that in a second-guessing manner. I still feel we haven't seen the last of this type of heat. I know a lot of guys are going much colder in July/Aug, but I just don't think we do a 2008 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 MAV/MET are 98/99 for them again tomorrow. Is it possible this is the hottest air of the whole summer? you don't think this pattern will happen again in late june/july? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 What is your dewpoint? 65* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 kewr broke their record high of 97. 98 as of 4 pm I'm seeing the obs as 99 degrees. that's weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 LOL it doesn't get much hotter than upper 90s here, dude. HM, care to share any thoughts about the winter? Really want to hear your thinking with the QBO being more negative, ENSO looking to remain neutral-negative/weak Niña, and the -PDO holding its ground? Trying not to think about it really and certainly not in this thread. It could potentially be a very cold winter (again) in the N-C States and West. If the sun decides to have another dormancy period just in time for winter (I am not counting on it but I suspect this cycle will have larger swings than normal) or portion of the winter, that will be the time the Northeast sees their heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 LOL it doesn't get much hotter than upper 90s here, dude. HM, care to share any thoughts about the winter? Really want to hear your thinking with the QBO being more negative, ENSO looking to remain neutral-negative/weak Niña, and the -PDO holding its ground? well definately for you since you are only at 92 but i bet we see upper 90's multiple times this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 The weather observed at NEWARK, NJ (KEWR) at 03:51 PM EDT was: The skies were partly cloudy. Temperature: 99F ( 37C) Dewpoint: 64F ( 18C) Relative Humidity: 33% Winds from the W (270 degs) at 8 mph. Pressure: 1010.5 millibars. Altimeter:29.84 inches of mercury. The prevailing visibility was 9 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 the convection is probably going to stay well to our north http://climate.cod.e...rk&numimages=24 point taken, and the HRRR has been less than perfect as of late, but the NAM did show a dying cluster of storms advancing from the west later today and I don't think a storm or two is out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 65* Wow, my dewpoint is in the 70s...must have downsloping effects up there. With 850s around 20C, we could have made a run at upper 90s had we mixed out better in Westchester. Looks as if 91.8F was probably the high here. For those not enjoying this heat wave, the 12z ECM has a stout cooldown from Sunday-Wednesday with 850s getting down to around 5C. Monday could be particularly chilly if the Euro holds serve, looks like 850s are mid single digits and we may have some remaining clouds/showers from the weekend. Can't see the QPF though for Monday, so just guessing about precipitation/cloud cover. Would be interesting to see a couple days with highs in the 60s after this torch. One thing that's preventing this summer from being oppressive like 2010 is that we seem to be getting pretty strong cold shots interspersed with the heat, just as we had last week with nights dropping into the 40s following the late May warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 you don't think this pattern will happen again in late june/july? See above; that was in reference to yesterday. I am not on the 2008 bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 See above; that was in reference to yesterday. I am not on the 2008 bandwagon. 2 for 2 on a july 4th heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Definitely not enough "mixing out" going on that's for sure. Does anyone remember the heatwaves of 1995? They had considerably higher dewpoints than anything last year. Been worried about the mixing since last night. NAM had 93 F and 22c 850s. Obviously that busted low, but you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Trying not to think about it really and certainly not in this thread. It could potentially be a very cold winter (again) in the N-C States and West. If the sun decides to have another dormancy period just in time for winter (I am not counting on it but I suspect this cycle will have larger swings than normal) or portion of the winter, that will be the time the Northeast sees their heaviest snow. A bit off topic, but sounds like you're counting on a -EPO with a more neutral NAO causing the brunt of cold weather to be to our west. Definitely leaning more towards a cold ENSO pattern, I see, if I'm interpreting this correctly. Could be interesting in the Northeast if the -QBO/solar minimum team up again like 09-10 for a nice blocking pattern. Still a long ways away, however. One thing that is not good is that the cryosphere is really being depleted with lots of areas in the Arctic near record lows for sea ice, such as the Beaufort. That could also be a factor in muting any late-summer cooldowns if we have a lack of cold air over Canada to tap due to the deterioration of the ice pack. well definately for you since you are only at 92 but i bet we see upper 90's multiple times this summer . I think the core of the heat ridge is going to drift West as the summer goes on, and definitely for the next 2 weeks. Extended drought over the S. Plains will maintain a death ridge in that area, which will continue the chance for Sonoran outbreaks, as the ridge oscillates between its climo position in TX/NM and occasionally popping into the Midwest and East. Unlike 1988 however, when the warm anomalies expanded from the Southern Plains northward as the warm season went on, I think this year might be the reverse with the heat dome slowly migrating further west. We've had some cool Augusts after moderate-strong La Niñas with blocking similar to this past winter....here are two that were analogs for this year. August 1956 temps: August 1971: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 94.4 and still going up here in Monmouth County. Tomorrow's probably hotter for us with a much higher morning launching pad. My low was 66F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 93.9 That sea breeze sure didn't get far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 more fantasy land model porn if you want storms tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 more fantasy land model porn if you want storms tonight that doesnt even look impressive, and thats a rare occurrence coming from the hrrr which is always too bullish and the colors on that map can be deceiving.. i wouldnt get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That could definitely be the beginnings of a derecho coming for upstate NY. Looks nasty... QLCS=one of the worst modern wx acronyms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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