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June likely to come in with a summer-like scorch


earthlight

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Tommorows forecast to be hotter correct?.....another question too with some of the models showing a "chance" of storms for the evening you think that could happen?

we're all in at least a slight risk for severe storms and the models have been quite bullish in showing a solid convective line coming through. Damaging winds look to be the primary threat.

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It may not happen, GFS looks a little extreme with 570dm heights up to the Yukon. It's pretty certain though that the heat ridge is going to retreat to the SW for a while as we move into more normal conditions. 70s to low 80s this weekend with the occasional shower, then some cool/dry weather as we get into next week.

Yeah, with the SOI being positive again and strong trade winds, I wouldn't be surprised if we went into a warmer than normal summer regime for a while if the Nina does indeed try to make a comeback. We've still seen slight ENSO warming in the last week, but perhaps if it flips back towards Nina we get a heat wave while lower heights return to the Arctic?

You seem always cool anti-thunderstorm bias I hate to say. During the weekend I see some models have a difference with a stalled out a front. The NAM seems to be cool side of thing and more aggressive with front being to our south where the Euro model seems to keep the front nearby to give us showers and thunderstorms. The GFS seems to be in middle where it could give maybe an overrunning rain event where we hopefully see thunderstorms tomorrow evening through Friday. We see a few cool dry days early next week with temps in the 70's to near 80 F but the GFS does hint warmer and more humid will come back later in the week where the ridge will return and that could mean more convention (thunderstorm) chances. By the 12z NAM does show a good line of convention plowing through most of the area including NYC and good part of LI as well tomorrow night.

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You seem always cool anti-thunderstorm bias I hate to say. During the weekend I see some models have a difference with a stalled out a front. The NAM seems to be cool side of thing and more aggressive with front being to our south where the Euro model seems to keep the front nearby to give us showers and thunderstorms. The GFS seems to be in middle where it could give maybe an overrunning rain event where we hopefully see thunderstorms tomorrow evening through Friday. We see a few cool dry days early next week with temps in the 70's to near 80 F but the GFS does hint warmer and more humid will come back later in the week where the ridge will return and that could mean more convention (thunderstorm) chances.

The GFS really keeps us away from any true "heat ridge" through at least day 10. One thing is for sure, the pattern looks wet and stormy east of the MS river and there are hints of something popping in the gulf which would be the wild card.

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You seem always cool anti-thunderstorm bias I hate to say. During the weekend I see some models have a difference with a stalled out a front. The NAM seems to be cool side of thing and more aggressive with front being to our south where the Euro model seems to keep the front nearby to give us showers and thunderstorms. The GFS seems to be in middle where it could give maybe an overrunning rain event where we hopefully see thunderstorms tomorrow evening through Friday. We see a few cool dry days early next week with temps in the 70's to near 80 F but the GFS does hint warmer and more humid will come back later in the week where the ridge will return and that could mean more convention (thunderstorm) chances. By the 12z NAM does show a good line of convention plowing through most of the area including NYC and good part of LI as well tomorrow night.

I'm just stating what the GFS shows for the next 7-10 days, not my personal thoughts. I'm not anti-thunderstorm.

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I'm just stating what the GFS shows for the next 7-10 days, not my personal thoughts. I'm not anti-thunderstorm.

I look at the GFS I see a couple cooler with low humidity days with highs mainly in the 70's to near 80 F from the weekend through Tuesday or Wednesday but I see that a warm front will set up during midweek and perhaps I won't surprise that showers and possibly some thunderstorms as well go along the warm front then warmer and more humid air mass for later next week with afternoon daily convention is possible for inland areas more. I think it will more mid to upper 80's for highs oppose to 90's except I won't rule a few warm spots cracking 90 F later next week but no big heat waves after this one for awhile.

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