A-L-E-X Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 That 2009 summer really sucked lol-- most of the outlooks Ive seen had it much cooler than normal in the west, much warmer than normal in the southeast and about normal temps in the NE for the whole summer. The MA up to S PA was in somewhat above normal, but once you got to NJ and northward it was forecasted to be a normal summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 I doubt this is the last heat wave of the summer. I think we will get another one in late June or early July. Personal opinion. The summer itself won't average as well above average as last summer thanks to cooler periods behind frontal passages...but I can see some big heat in here through July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Briefly tapped 90, now I'm back to the upper 80's and the sun has been blocked by some clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Last rainfall here was .20" on May 30th. Totally dull...we missed the epic severe weather outbreak that hit SNE last week. I don't think we're going to see a lot of thunderstorms this week because the atmosphere is pretty capped with warm mid-level temperatures. 500mb heights are rising tomorrow; even though NWS has a chance of t-storms in the forecast, I doubt we'll see any meaningful, organized convection. I think the best shot would be Friday when the cold front comes through, although we don't have a strong surface low to the north so pressure falls are a bit limited...I'm thinking this is more of a straight-line wind and potential heavy rain threat rather than tornado activity. Looking at the sounding for White Plains/HPN on Friday, you can see that it's not such a great look...not much turning, poor lapse rates, downsloping NW flow at the surface which reduces dewpoints, etc. More of a classic arid heat wave from the Sonoran Desert than a humid/stormy pattern. I personally think this is the big heat wave for the summer. Of course it will be hot in July since average highs are in the 85-87F range, but I'm not seeing a signal for a real warm July...ENSO is still warming a bit, NAO has started to become more negative which brings cool Canadian airmasses into the Northern Tier (contrary to what some have been saying, the -NAO is correlated with below normal temperatures in summer), and I'm seeing 2008 as a very appropriate analog for this summer with the Sonoran outbreak in June, a cooler but somewhat humid/stormy July, and then a below normal and drier August. We'll see how this plays out but those are my thoughts. Jeez the rain drought may continue then.....I would've loved the severe weather last week minus the tornadoes and damage/deaths but that looks like our last severe threat for awhile now. as you said maybe some storms Friday if that cause it doesn't look good for that either, for sure a boring period of weather for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 This is far from the last heatwave. Volcanoes can make a summer pretty drab huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 thats a strong SW wind at JFK, SW20 gusting to 25. May try to go south soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Newark up to 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Jeez the rain drought may continue then.....I would've loved the severe weather last week minus the tornadoes and damage/deaths but that looks like our last severe threat for awhile now. as you said maybe some storms Friday if that cause it doesn't look good for that either, for sure a boring period of weather for a while We have a synoptic system passing through Sunday and Monday that should give us some showers/moderate rain. Nothing severe I think, but good for the soil and vegetation. This is far from the last heatwave. Volcanoes can make a summer pretty drab huh? Well of course it's not the last heatwave...with the NWS considering a heatwave three days above 90F, it's not exactly hard to verify given that normals for places like TTN and EWR have highs in the upper 80s by mid July. You're always going to meet those criteria a couple times in July and August at the hotter spots. I wonder if HPN (White Plains) meets heatwave criteria this week...probably going to miss it Friday. It's really hard for HPN to hit 90F since it's in a rural area of central Westchester at 400' elevation. One of the more honest stations in my opinion since it's surrounded by trees and fields, not development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 ^By heatwave I mean heat like this...what we've got going on now. As in, I think we will see temps near 100 for a stretch again at least once or twice this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Well of course it's not the last heatwave...with the NWS considering a heatwave three days above 90F, it's not exactly hard to verify given that normals for places like TTN and EWR have highs in the upper 80s by mid July. You're always going to meet those criteria a couple times in July and August at the hotter spots. I wonder if HPN (White Plains) meets heatwave criteria this week...probably going to miss it Friday. It's really hard for HPN to hit 90F since it's in a rural area of central Westchester at 400' elevation. One of the more honest stations in my opinion since it's surrounded by trees and fields, not development. Thanks for that tip on heatwaves....no seriously...forget the definition and forget what I said and let me rephrase. This won't be the last big anomalous heat of the summer and 100 will be attainable at least 2 more times this summer. HPN may be screwed Friday out of 90. But is that a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 By the way, HM, do you think the Chilean volcano is going to have a climate impact? Are you suggesting that other volcanoes are causing this hot summer right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 ^By heatwave I mean heat like this...what we've got going on now. As in, I think we will see temps near 100 for a stretch again at least once or twice this summer. I could definitely see that, esp before july 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 I could definitely see that, esp before july 15th. yes agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 By the way, HM, do you think the Chilean volcano is going to have a climate impact? Are you suggesting that other volcanoes are causing this hot summer right now? No... that was in reference to the Midwest cold summers of the past. The volcanism correlation worked well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 ^By heatwave I mean heat like this...what we've got going on now. As in, I think we will see temps near 100 for a stretch again at least once or twice this summer. yeah, August can see big heat as well as in 95+..These 2 days of high heat in early June arent the peak in heat for a summer that just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I could definitely see that, esp before july 15th. I could see it after too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 yes agreed With the SOI bouncing back to positive values and trade winds looking to take control as the Niña/-PDO attempts to reassert itself, I personally wouldn't be surprised if the cooldown is temporary and we get another hot period in mid-late June. I wonder if we could get a 1988 type summer given that the ENSO has warmed a lot but may cool back down significantly, somewhat mimicking the Nino-->Nina transition that's produced our hottest summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 heat advisory just went up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Fire Island, NY Harbor and Montauk buoys are all dead south winds now, gusting to 20. All north shore buoys are still reading WNW winds except for the Port Jeff buoy, which is now south and the air temp dropped from 81 to 71 degrees on the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 heat advisory just went up omg, the children! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 WOW just when I thought it was over for the day, I'm sitting at 92.7°F. I see it peaked at 93.4 though. omg, the children! LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 wouldnt be surprised if some locations spiked the last hour under full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I doubt this is the last heat wave of the summer. I think we will get another one in late June or early July. Personal opinion. The summer itself won't average as well above average as last summer thanks to cooler periods behind frontal passages...but I can see some big heat in here through July. Yeah, I think some people forget how hot a "normal" NYC summer actually is..... 17-20 90 degree days on average. It's pretty easy to have 90 degree days right through Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Fire Island, NY Harbor and Montauk buoys are all dead south winds now, gusting to 20. All north shore buoys are still reading WNW winds except for the Port Jeff buoy, which is now south and the air temp dropped from 81 to 71 degrees on the switch. Hopefully this doesn't happen the next two days-- this is the equivalent of snow changing to rain I hate these weakling highs that bend over for the ocean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 I'm thinking similarly; 2008 was my main analog for the summer, which of course featured a heat wave at the exact same time as the current one. Relative to normals, I definitely believe June wins by a mile w/ the heat. As for precip, maybe we can catch up w/ a stalling front this weekend. Hopefully there is chance for some thunderstorms this Friday to break to the heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 This is far from the last heatwave. Volcanoes can make a summer pretty drab huh? Yeah, I think people forget about how hot a typical summer around here is-- summers like last year are not very common but summers with less than 5 90 degree days are even less common lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 We all know the Mayor banned smoking at NY beaches, I think the next step will be to ban outdoor smoking altogether on days with heat advisories because of the accumulated effects of pollution causing problems for those with respiratory problems. I was standing at a bus stop earlier where a man was smoking and a women standing with her kid nearby was giving him glaring looks like she wanted to kill him. She stood there fanning the smoke away with her hat. Ideally, she could have just moved further down the sidewalk, but there were a lot of people waiting and they made a line waiting for the bus. There was an article on the Wall Street Journal about it a few months ago: http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/02/25/next-anti-smoking-target-bus-stops/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Jeez the rain drought may continue then.....I would've loved the severe weather last week minus the tornadoes and damage/deaths but that looks like our last severe threat for awhile now. as you said maybe some storms Friday if that cause it doesn't look good for that either, for sure a boring period of weather for a while I love it as dry as possible-- the bug population has really gone down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 love you too man love you too bro..... nothing better than a heatwave, Yankees vs Red Sox, poolside, drinks, etc..... the timing for this couldn't have been any better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 18z NAM continues to bring a chance of T-storms for our area on Thursday night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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