June likely to come in with a summer-like scorch

[tornadojay]

Newark at 90..looks to be fluctuating near 91.

the warming is pretty impressive. The steady west wind has got to be helping out.. Mesoanalysis shows 850 temps are only between about 14 and 15 C right now. 850 temps are progged to be a good 6 or 7 degrees higher tomorrow.. If today is any indication, I'm willing to hedge some bets that Newark might be able to top 100 fairly easily tomorrow.

[NorEaster27]

87 here.... we can hit 90 here on a WSW wind even early in the season.

my station says 89.2 now after hitting 90:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=11414

[pazzo83]

89.6 in midtown and continuing up. Wouldn't be surprised if the park hit 89/90.

[nzucker]

87.4/61 here in Westchester after a high of 88.3F today. A bit hazy look to the skies, certainly a sign of the impending heat wave. As Isotherm said, you can feel the hot airmass being advected into the region.

We really need some rain...I'm noticing a lot of dusty soil in my garden, haven't had much rain at all since the cut-off in mid May.

[A-L-E-X]

my station says 89.2 now after hitting 90:

http://www.wundergro...ast?query=11414

Hopefully mine does too-- didn't you also hit 90 on the last day of May? So this would be your second? Did you keep track of temps last summer too? I think we hit 103 here and were 100+ three days.

[blizzardof09]

87.4/61 here in Westchester after a high of 88.3F today. A bit hazy look to the skies, certainly a sign of the impending heat wave. As Isotherm said, you can feel the hot airmass being advected into the region.

We really need some rain...I'm noticing a lot of dusty soil in my garden, haven't had much rain at all since the cut-off in mid May.

Yea this has got to be one the longest period of dull dry weather in a while not even a thunderstorm to speak of....heat is nice but having a good thunderstorm to break a heat wave would be welcoming to a lot of weather folks, Thursday may bring some storms but I guess we'll see

[NorEaster27]

Hopefully mine does too-- didn't you also hit 90 on the last day of May? So this would be your second? Did you keep track of temps last summer too? I think we hit 103 here and were 100+ three days.

I did and I didn't but now its automatic since my station is online at wundergound.

[A-L-E-X]

the warming is pretty impressive. The steady west wind has got to be helping out.. Mesoanalysis shows 850 temps are only between about 14 and 15 C right now. 850 temps are progged to be a good 6 or 7 degrees higher tomorrow.. If today is any indication, I'm willing to hedge some bets that Newark might be able to top 100 fairly easily tomorrow.

102 might be a likely number for them tomorrow, they've hit that before in June. In 1993 NYC was at 95 and EWR was at 102 lol and in July when NYC was 98, EWR was 105.

[A-L-E-X]

I did and I didn't but now its automatic since my station is online at wundergound.

did and didn't eh so did you have 3 100+ degree days last summer too and a peak of 103?

[A-L-E-X]

The heat thread last summer was so awesomely busy during that record hot stretch in early July-- it really felt like being in the middle of a winter storm thread lol. Hope it happens again this summer

[NorEaster27]

did and didn't eh so did you have 3 100+ degree days last summer too and a peak of 103?

it was a few, i didn't keep track

[earthlight]

The heat thread last summer was so awesomely busy during that record hot stretch in early July-- it really felt like being in the middle of a winter storm thread lol. Hope it happens again this summer

I remember that...the threads are actually pretty busy now. I think we'll be good the next few days. I, for one, am stoked.

[Cfa]

@ 88.0°F

I hope 90 is attainable, still have a few hours of heating left.

[pazzo83]

90.1. Game on.

[A-L-E-X]

I remember that...the threads are actually pretty busy now. I think we'll be good the next few days. I, for one, am stoked.

Yeah.... typical late spring early summer weather would be like one post every 6 hours lol. A weather enthusiast lives for anomalous weather, no matter what kind

[nzucker]

Yea this has got to be one the longest period of dull dry weather in a while not even a thunderstorm to speak of....heat is nice but having a good thunderstorm to break a heat wave would be welcoming to a lot of weather folks, Thursday may bring some storms but I guess we'll see

Last rainfall here was .20" on May 30th. Totally dull...we missed the epic severe weather outbreak that hit SNE last week. I don't think we're going to see a lot of thunderstorms this week because the atmosphere is pretty capped with warm mid-level temperatures. 500mb heights are rising tomorrow; even though NWS has a chance of t-storms in the forecast, I doubt we'll see any meaningful, organized convection. I think the best shot would be Friday when the cold front comes through, although we don't have a strong surface low to the north so pressure falls are a bit limited...I'm thinking this is more of a straight-line wind and potential heavy rain threat rather than tornado activity.

Looking at the sounding for White Plains/HPN on Friday, you can see that it's not such a great look...not much turning, poor lapse rates, downsloping NW flow at the surface which reduces dewpoints, etc. More of a classic arid heat wave from the Sonoran Desert than a humid/stormy pattern.

The heat thread last summer was so awesomely busy during that record hot stretch in early July-- it really felt like being in the middle of a winter storm thread lol. Hope it happens again this summer

I personally think this is the big heat wave for the summer. Of course it will be hot in July since average highs are in the 85-87F range, but I'm not seeing a signal for a real warm July...ENSO is still warming a bit, NAO has started to become more negative which brings cool Canadian airmasses into the Northern Tier (contrary to what some have been saying, the -NAO is correlated with below normal temperatures in summer), and I'm seeing 2008 as a very appropriate analog for this summer with the Sonoran outbreak in June, a cooler but somewhat humid/stormy July, and then a below normal and drier August. We'll see how this plays out but those are my thoughts.

[Isotherm]

87 now. My dewpoint still pretty low, at 61. Wondering if we max out with much lower dews this go around b/c of WLY winds. Friday may be our most humid day.

[CooL]

Yeah.... typical late spring early summer weather would be like one post every 6 hours lol. A weather enthusiast lives for anomalous weather, no matter what kind

in my opinion, i think the NY forum is the best on the board. Nobody is too serious and we all know how to have fun and get real when the time comes. Great personalities and egos. Entertaining arguments and biases. ect ect.. It's the reason why i come back everyday.

[A-L-E-X]

Last rainfall here was .20" on May 30th. Totally dull...we missed the epic severe weather outbreak that hit SNE last week. I don't think we're going to see a lot of thunderstorms this week because the atmosphere is pretty capped with warm mid-level temperatures. 500mb heights are rising tomorrow; even though NWS has a chance of t-storms in the forecast, I doubt we'll see any meaningful, organized convection. I think the best shot would be Friday when the cold front comes through, although we don't have a strong surface low to the north so pressure falls are a bit limited...I'm thinking this is more of a straight-line wind and potential heavy rain threat rather than tornado activity.

Looking at the sounding for White Plains/HPN on Friday, you can see that it's not such a great look...not much turning, poor lapse rates, downsloping NW flow at the surface which reduces dewpoints, etc. More of a classic arid heat wave from the Sonoran Desert than a humid/stormy pattern.

I personally think this is the big heat wave for the summer. Of course it will be hot in July since average highs are in the 85-87F range, but I'm not seeing a signal for a real warm July...ENSO is still warming a bit, NAO has started to become more negative which brings cool Canadian airmasses into the Northern Tier (contrary to what some have been saying, the -NAO is correlated with below normal temperatures in summer), and I'm seeing 2008 as a very appropriate analog for this summer with the Sonoran outbreak in June, a cooler but somewhat humid/stormy July, and then a below normal and drier August. We'll see how this plays out but those are my thoughts.

But don't you remember Wes saying that -NAO means hotter weather in summer, like what happened in 1999 and 2010? I thought 1999 was a big analog for you

[Isotherm]

I personally think this is the big heat wave for the summer. Of course it will be hot in July since average highs are in the 85-87F range, but I'm not seeing a signal for a real warm July...ENSO is still warming a bit, NAO has started to become more negative which brings cool Canadian airmasses into the Northern Tier (contrary to what some have been saying, the -NAO is correlated with below normal temperatures in summer), and I'm seeing 2008 as a very appropriate analog for this summer with the Sonoran outbreak in June, a cooler but somewhat humid/stormy July, and then a below normal and drier August. We'll see how this plays out but those are my thoughts.

I'm thinking similarly; 2008 was my main analog for the summer, which of course featured a heat wave at the exact same time as the current one. Relative to normals, I definitely believe June wins by a mile w/ the heat. As for precip, maybe we can catch up w/ a stalling front this weekend.

[A-L-E-X]

in my opinion, i think the NY forum is the best on the board. Nobody is too serious and we all know how to have fun and get real when the time comes. Great personalities and egos. Entertaining arguments and biases. ect ect.. It's the reason why i come back everyday.

Plus Earthlight is the best ringmaster a circus-- err I mean subforum-- could ever have

[Stormlover74]

93 was also very dry. Didn't remember how dry the June - August period was. Only about 6" for the 90 day period in EWR, NYC was dry in June and July but had a wetter August.

102 might be a likely number for them tomorrow, they've hit that before in June. In 1993 NYC was at 95 and EWR was at 102 lol and in July when NYC was 98, EWR was 105.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm thinking similarly; 2008 was my main analog for the summer, which of course featured a heat wave at the exact same time as the current one. Relative to normals, I definitely believe June wins by a mile w/ the heat. As for precip, maybe we can catch up w/ a stalling front this weekend.

Question.... using 2008 as the analog, do you expect a similar winter to 2008-9 following it and if so, do you expect a significant el nino in the winter after that, somewhat like 2009-10? (or at least like 1957-58 or 2002-03).

[Isotherm]

in my opinion, i think the NY forum is the best on the board. Nobody is too serious and we all know how to have fun and get real when the time comes. Great personalities and egos. Entertaining arguments and biases. ect ect.. It's the reason why i come back everyday.

Violently agree.

[A-L-E-X]

93 was also very dry. Didn't remember how dry the June - August period was. Only about 6" for the 90 day period in EWR, NYC was dry in June and July but had a wetter August.

Yeah it was dry all summer..... we hit 90 once in May, I remember JFK hit 96 in late June and we all went over 100 for multiple days in early July, like last year. We had 90 degree days as late as the middle of September that year.

In early July NYC exceeded 100 degrees three days in a row, EWR five days in a row and NINE 100+ days for the whole season.

[earthlight]

Plus Earthlight is the best ringmaster a circus-- err I mean subforum-- could ever have

love you too man

[earthlight]

Violently agree.

dont hurt him bro

[A-L-E-X]

The 90s may have been the best decade for NYC summers ever..... probably like 00s for snow lol..... 91, 93, 95, 99 you can't find another cluster quite like that!

[Isotherm]

Question.... using 2008 as the analog, do you expect a similar winter to 2008-9 following it and if so, do you expect a significant el nino in the winter after that, somewhat like 2009-10? (or at least like 1957-58 or 2002-03).

I don't really like using one analog for a long period of time. Usually the carry-over technique doesn't work that well. With that said, a lot depends on the direction ENSO goes and other factors.

[nzucker]

in my opinion, i think the NY forum is the best on the board. Nobody is too serious and we all know how to have fun and get real when the time comes. Great personalities and egos. Entertaining arguments and biases. ect ect.. It's the reason why i come back everyday.

The SNE forum is the best on the board because they have the most meteorologists that post regularly. NYC threads are entertaining but sometimes devolve into useless personal arguments void of meteorological information even during important events like winter storms.

But don't you remember Wes saying that -NAO means hotter weather in summer, like what happened in 1999 and 2010? I thought 1999 was a big analog for you

For the Lower Mid-Atlantic and SE (where Wes lives), a -NAO means hotter weather in summer. The NAO doesn't have much impact here, but as you get towards New England or the Upper Midwest, a -NAO in summer usually means cooler than normal temperatures. During -NAO summers, the Northern Tier is generally cool and the Southern Tier is generally warm. 2008 and 2009 are good examples, and when you have a -AO combined with a -NAO like 2009, it tends to produce below normal conditions for NYC metro.

NAO correlation with air temperatures:

2008 summer temperature anomalies, coolest in the Upper Midwest/N Plains with -NAO, warmer in the South:

2009 summer temperatures, showing a strong -NAO/-AO pattern with cold in the North and mild in the South:

Overall, though, the NAO has less of an impact on summer temperature patterns than winter temperature regimes. In summer, temperatures are often dominated by local factors like soil dryness, sea breezes, etc...whereas winter is all about the jet stream placement and hence storm tracks.