HM Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 HM does this remind you of 1994 a bit..... hot in June, and the heat tends to become less extreme as the summer goes on. Interesting in that 1993 was a scorcher like last summer was. I can see why you say that and yes there are some similarities. The -QBO wave that year peaked right around early summer and that's when the GLAAM had a temporary plunge before the 94-95 warm ENSO. This also gave the PDO a little bit of a relaxation from its positive state, too. June was the peak of the -GLAAM and may explain the similar pattern. However, in that June, the pipeline was a classic Southwest to Midwest to Northeast type of heat. So far this season, everything has been more east, likely to do with the different AMO, PDO setup mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I can see why you say that and yes there are some similarities. The -QBO wave that year peaked right around early summer and that's when the GLAAM had a temporary plunge before the 94-95 warm ENSO. This also gave the PDO a little bit of a relaxation from its positive state, too. June was the peak of the -GLAAM and may explain the similar pattern. However, in that June, the pipeline was a classic Southwest to Midwest to Northeast type of heat. So far this season, everything has been more east, likely to do with the different AMO, PDO setup mostly. Yep, that's the thing..... we were in the warm part of the PDO cycle back then and it was right before we went into the tropically active part of the AMO cycle, which started in 1995. I'm sure you've also noticed this, but since we went into the tropically active part of the AMO cycle, the winters up here have gotten much snowier (not necessarily colder though). Being in the colder phase of the PDO will likely keep us from going el nino next winter..... I agree that neutral is much more likely. I think we have a good chance of an el nino in winter 2012-13 though, because if you look at some of the historical analogs (55-56, 66-67, 95-96) to the previous winter..... the were followed by el ninos TWO winters later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 NAM MOS for Wednesday SMQ: 96 EWR: 95 LGA: 95 PHL: 94 NYC: 92 JFK: 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 NAM MOS for Wednesday SMQ: 96 EWR: 95 LGA: 95 PHL: 94 NYC: 92 JFK: 90 90s across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 12z NAM MOS (most recent, no 18z maps) for Tuesday & Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Shamless plug...new forecast discussion is out here: http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/p/forecast-discussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 90s across the board The west wind is crucial for Long Island folks to get above 90. The second the wind takes on a southerly component, it's over from JFK east. It has to be due west, or maybe preferably WNW. That's what really scorches it right to the beaches (although ironically it cools the waters down because of upwelling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 The west wind is crucial for Long Island folks to get above 90. The second the wind takes on a southerly component, it's over from JFK east. It has to be due west, or maybe preferably WNW. That's what really scorches it right to the beaches (although ironically it cools the waters down because of upwelling). Agreed.... SW or even S winds can get us to 90 but only late in the summer late July, August, early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Agreed.... SW or even S winds can get us to 90 but only late in the summer late July, August, early September. nice night outside tonight: Getting the pool ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Per Upton's AFD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE HEAT FOR WED AND THU. H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20-21C RANGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS. MIXING THESE TEMPS DOWN TO THE SFC EVEN WITHOUT ANY SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES RESULTS IN MID 90S FOR HIGHS. FCST MAX TEMPS INCLUDING THE SFC LAPSE RATES THEREFORE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH APPARENT T/S NEAR 100...ESPECIALLY THE CITY AND W. THE CITY WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR WED AND THU. MOST OF NORTHEASTERN NJ WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY ON THU. ELSEWHERE...POCKETS OF NEAR 100 POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 00z nam looking really hot..The reds and oranges on the hi res images are making me sweat already :blush: ..not gonna post the images, you get the point, mid - upper 90's for all on wed and thurs. enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 00z nam looking really hot..The reds and oranges on the hi res images are making me sweat already :blush: ..not gonna post the images, you get the point, mid - upper 90's for all on wed and thurs. enjoy on phone, need images. don't let me down bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 on phone, need images. don't let me down bro. I got you Wed: Thurs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 that rules, thanks bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 that rules, thanks bro. That rules monkey balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 As for severe weather, this weekend looks good for the Mid Atlantic. The two big obstacles at this stage in the game are: 1. Timing 2. Warm front positioning The 12z UKMET/ECMWF are more threatening than the GFS but I would say the GFS is still a legit threat. The positioning of important features look better for tornadoes in the Mid Atlantic this go-around. Does it include the NYC and LI area as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 We're on the periphery of some forcing tomorrow as a weak shortwave dives southeast.. and on the edge of the big ridging..don't be surprised if we get some convection into Western NJ later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 The west wind is crucial for Long Island folks to get above 90. The second the wind takes on a southerly component, it's over from JFK east. It has to be due west, or maybe preferably WNW. That's what really scorches it right to the beaches (although ironically it cools the waters down because of upwelling). Mid to upper 80's at least will be certain for Wednesday and Thursday for the South Shore of Long Island and I do think Islip Airport has good shot of cracking 90 F on Thursday with the West to Southwest wind. Thursday will be in fact the hottest day in all areas where I believe isolated areas in the hottest spot could be in the upper 90 to possibly even 100 F in NJ. The city I will be conservative with low to mid 90's right now. I think the dewpoints will be more in the low to mid 60's and so the heat index will be few degrees higher the temps so areas like Newark, Trenton, and Philly could see the Heat Index could near 100 . Note that Mount Holly already issued a Excessive Heat Watch for that area and in the city it could even go into the 95-100 F range with the dewpoints at least in the 60's but some mixing with West winds could lower slightly to make it more bearable and there is possibility it could dropped into the upper 50's to near 60 F oppose to having dewpoints near 70 F to really make insane hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 NAM MOS 00z GFS MOS 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 6z NAM isn't quite as warm with 850 mb temps on Thursday as the GFS, but regardless, it's gonna be blazing hot both tomorrow and Thursday. I think someone should be hitting 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 who here is thinking that parts of the city or northeast NJ may not drop below 80 on Wednesday night... looks like a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 who here is thinking that parts of the city or northeast NJ may not drop below 80 on Wednesday night... looks like a distinct possibility. it's possible...It almost happened in 1984 on 6/10...79 was the min...The earliest 80 minimum is 6/26/1952 when the min. was 81... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 wow NOAA has me at 98 thurs and 96 on weds, how accurate could that be? time will tell but man already? ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 who here is thinking that parts of the city or northeast NJ may not drop below 80 on Wednesday night... looks like a distinct possibility. Check out my forecast for EWR yesterday. That's a morning low: Forecast low/high temps for EWR: Tue: 66/88 Wed: 71/94 Thu: 80/98 Fri: 76/91 Also with the latest models showing 20C+ 850mb temp advecting faster over entire region tomorrow, the thermal trough axis will set-up further near or over NYC metro. Which means sea-breeze will be limited only to the immediate coast tomorrow. I can see inland LI getting well into the 90s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 6z NAM soundings for LGA: Today: 89 Wednesday: 95 Thursday: 94 with afternoon thunderstorms Friday: mid to upper 70's EWR and NYC very similar but we all know EWR will be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 12z NAM is 95-96 degrees for both tomorrow and Wednesday for LGA. Roasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 12z NAM is 95-96 degrees for both tomorrow and Wednesday for LGA. Roasting. based on 850 temps and projected clouds and precip alone.. would suggest that tomorrow is warmer than Thursday per 12Z NAM.. at least just by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 21 C 850 temps and west 10m winds should yield near 100 degree highs tomorrow especially at stations like SMQ and EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 21 C 850 temps and west 10m winds should yield near 100 degree highs tomorrow especially at stations like SMQ and EWR So your car thermometer should read what, 120? I won't be satisfied unless you report 120 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.