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June likely to come in with a summer-like scorch


earthlight

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http://www.lohud.com/article/20110530/NEWS02/105300344/Parolee-ID-d-victim-Mamaroneck-drowning?odyssey=nav%7Chead

Water was 59 degrees at the time and its suspected he died from muscles locking up after being in the water for over a half hour.

people have died from being outside in 95 degree weather. isolated incidents are not worth posting a hazard.

I agree you should always look out for water temp. but i don't see the big concern.

it's equally as dangerous to be outside in 95 degree weather for extended periods without water

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people have died from being outside in 95 degree weather. isolated incidents are not worth posting a hazard.

I agree you should always look out for water temp. but i don't see the big concern.

it's equally as dangerous to be outside in 95 degree weather for extended periods without water

Yup. Agreed.

Leaving now for my fishing trip and Isotherm swimming expedition.

Enjoy your pool tonight.

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Yeah, most of us intelligent people know how to quickly read through a thread, take in the information we need and ignore the rest.

don't see why in slow times, especially summer, its can't be one thread. What are we going to do, analzye the models for which ones show 98 and which ones show 95?

If there was a severe outbreak, then banter should be in the banter thread, but right now, whats the harm.

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don't see why in slow times, especially summer, its can't be one thread. What are we going to do, analzye the models for which ones show 98 and which ones show 95?

If there was a severe outbreak, then banter should be in the banter thread, but right now, whats the harm.

Exactly-- it's not life threatening weather.

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Will this be a case where the hottest day is actually Wednesday instead of Thursday? Did anyone here go for a cold June in the Northeast in their seasonal outlook? :devilsmiley:

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Will this be a case where the hottest day is actually Wednesday instead of Thursday? Did anyone here go for a cold June in the Northeast in their seasonal outlook? :devilsmiley:

Im hoping the heat can hold through at least July :devilsmiley:

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Will this be a case where the hottest day is actually Wednesday instead of Thursday? Did anyone here go for a cold June in the Northeast in their seasonal outlook? :devilsmiley:

i think we will get enough of a head start on thursday to beat wednesday

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As for severe weather, this weekend looks good for the Mid Atlantic. The two big obstacles at this stage in the game are:

1. Timing

2. Warm front positioning

The 12z UKMET/ECMWF are more threatening than the GFS but I would say the GFS is still a legit threat. The positioning of important features look better for tornadoes in the Mid Atlantic this go-around.

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i think we will get enough of a head start on thursday to beat wednesday

Great point. I just know I've seen this crap in the past where the day before over performs from deep westerly flow and little cloud cover and day two is more humid/oppressive but slightly less hot. Suppose tomorrow's MCS is faster, which has been the trend on the 12z runs...this will aid in subsidence/warming on Wednesday. Also, 12z GFS has a nice 21c pocket overhead. Meanwhile, if Thursday's front speeds up with more southwesterly wind and perhaps more CU, that could make Wednesday the winner. Just a possible scenario...either way...both days are bloody hot!

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Im hoping the heat can hold through at least July :devilsmiley:

The cold breaks will make this summer less oppressive than last year and offer some "sighs of relief" in between bursts of heat. The drought and warm waters near the East Coast and Gulf are both aiding in the heat and humidity. This is exactly why the EML's have been more prolific than normal.

Usually in summers like this, June heat in the East from Texas becomes more focused across the western states in July with weaknesses getting stuck in the Southeast. This isn't exactly a cold pattern in the Northeast and by no means 2008 like.

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As for severe weather, this weekend looks good for the Mid Atlantic. The two big obstacles at this stage in the game are:

1. Timing

2. Warm front positioning

The 12z UKMET/ECMWF are more threatening than the GFS but I would say the GFS is still a legit threat. The positioning of important features look better for tornadoes in the Mid Atlantic this go-around.

I'd like the shortwave and better forcing to be farther south again. Just something to think about. I think the best organized threat this week, as currently modeled, is over Northern New England.

I still think it will be active Friday though without the presence of a strong eml cap.

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I'd like the shortwave and better forcing to be farther south again. Just something to think about. I think the best organized threat this week, as currently modeled, is over Northern New England.

I still think it will be active Friday though without the presence of a strong eml cap.

Yeah but this time we have the -AO/NAO response and just like it would do in the winter, it is going to stop the northward motion of that s/w Sat-Sun eventually (I just don't know when). Notice the LLC's start to position southward on Sunday on the 12z data, offering a better setup further south. Don't get me wrong, I like this week for plenty of convective chances. I am just looking for the potential tornadic day, I guess.

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Yeah but this time we have the -AO/NAO response and just like it would do in the winter, it is going to stop the northward motion of that s/w Sat-Sun eventually (I just don't know when). Notice the LLC's start to position southward on Sunday on the 12z data, offering a better setup further south. Don't get me wrong, I like this week for plenty of convective chances. I am just looking for the potential tornadic day, I guess.

Yeah I agree. I guess much of it is still up in the air--there's going to be some event once the height falls work in. It's just a matter of the kinematics we can get to work with. The higher heights near Greenland will help.

It's interesting though--this is kind of a pattern that can screw us multiple times if the better forcing doesn't get down here.

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I think the GFS is overdoing the prefrontal trough /lee-trough on Wednesday a little bit. It's not that I think the solution is fantasy, it is just that I think it is overdoing the katabatic thing a little. This would help make Wednesday warmer than Thursday.

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The cold breaks will make this summer less oppressive than last year and offer some "sighs of relief" in between bursts of heat. The drought and warm waters near the East Coast and Gulf are both aiding in the heat and humidity. This is exactly why the EML's have been more prolific than normal.

Usually in summers like this, June heat in the East from Texas becomes more focused across the western states in July with weaknesses getting stuck in the Southeast. This isn't exactly a cold pattern in the Northeast and by no means 2008 like.

HM does this remind you of 1994 a bit..... hot in June, and the heat tends to become less extreme as the summer goes on. Interesting in that 1993 was a scorcher like last summer was.

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Great point. I just know I've seen this crap in the past where the day before over performs from deep westerly flow and little cloud cover and day two is more humid/oppressive but slightly less hot. Suppose tomorrow's MCS is faster, which has been the trend on the 12z runs...this will aid in subsidence/warming on Wednesday. Also, 12z GFS has a nice 21c pocket overhead. Meanwhile, if Thursday's front speeds up with more southwesterly wind and perhaps more CU, that could make Wednesday the winner. Just a possible scenario...either way...both days are bloody hot!

Im also wondering about how hot it can be on Friday.... oftentimes here, in the summer, we heat up even more after the passage of the front, with a dry downsloping westerly wind and cooler air lagging behind.

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I think the GFS is overdoing the prefrontal trough /lee-trough on Wednesday a little bit. It's not that I think the solution is fantasy, it is just that I think it is overdoing the katabatic thing a little. This would help make Wednesday warmer than Thursday.

HM, I have a feeling that places away from ocean and its associated marine layer will have a real good shot at approaching 100F on Wed-Thurs.

Where I live in central Jersey we often get some of the warmest temps of the NYC region (exception being the Newark Tarmack), so I have a feeling my area has a decent shot of reaching triple digits. :sun:

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