Dark Energy Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 GFS mos for THU at KLGA, low of 78, high of 98? Jesus. A bit overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I will go with lower 90's in the city or probably 90-95 F range with some spots like Newark, and Teteroboro in the 96-98 F range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 well, looking at the CLI reports, most areas since JAN 1 are above normal for qpf by just a bit, so we dont have really dry soil so to speak. So the that means adding the usual 4F to the h85 conversion temps won't do much good, instead, we should look at the typical method. For summer, 20C h85 temps would lend to mid 90s for highs. I know we're not in summer, but it's close enuf. What is key is the sfc winds. Any W to NW flow will bring in the warmer temps and that seems to be what OKX is forecasting as they have NYC at 95 for mid week with a W wind. NYC does struggle to get too warm with all the vegetation around the sensor this time of year so it will be interesting to see if that pans out. May come a bit cooler than that. NE NJ should cook tho. If the BL flow can thwart the sea breeze, then those areas will be hot as well. Note OKX is playing it safe for those areas attm with cooler temps into the lower 90s or near 90 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 well, looking at the CLI reports, most areas since JAN 1 are above normal for qpf by just a bit, so we dont have really dry soil so to speak. So the that means adding the usual 4F to the h85 conversion temps won't do much good, instead, we should look at the typical method. For summer, 20C h85 temps would lend to mid 90s for highs. I know we're not in summer, but it's close enuf. What is key is the sfc winds. Any W to NW flow will bring in the warmer temps and that seems to be what OKX is forecasting as they have NYC at 95 for mid week with a W wind. NYC does struggle to get too warm with all the vegetation around the sensor this time of year so it will be interesting to see if that pans out. May come a bit cooler than that. NE NJ should cook tho. If the BL flow can thwart the sea breeze, then those areas will be hot as well. Note OKX is playing it safe for those areas attm with cooler temps into the lower 90s or near 90 for a high. The sea breexe has plagued us this year, but Im hoping the westerly wind comes in for Thursday and we steam all the way to the coast We hit 92 in early April last year, how hard could it be to hit 90 plus in June? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Nicest beaches around these parts are the north shore of Montauk (block island sound). Calm water, crystal clear and a pristine scenery. When on a boat in these parts, you can clearly see the bottom in 20' of water. I'm used to the stunning Mediterranean also but there are some nice beaches around here also. From Jersey shore to the Hamptons is all the same. Nice ocean beaches but no comparison to the crystal clear waters of Europe. There are nice beaches that stretch from Easy Marion, LI to Orient Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Right now, Thursday looks like the hottest day for much of the area, especially near the coast. On Wednesday, with the heat starting to come in, we risk setting up weak thermal through inland, which would cause the sea-breezes to develop early. On Thursday, we should be more entrenched in hot and muggy air mass, across the area. The GFS and Euro have 850mb temps to be +20C or higher from morning to evening with a 10m WSW flow. I think we could see temps mid-upper 90s over NYC and NJ on Thursday and low 90s for some coastal locations. I also don't think we see a big severe wx threat, with the cold front on Thurs. night or Friday. The cold front doesn't look as strong as last week, and most of shear and dynamics going over well to our north. Looks it be just cool us down somewhat from the big heat on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Right now, Thursday looks like the hottest day for much of the area, especially near the coast. On Wednesday, with the heat starting to come in, we risk setting up weak thermal through inland, which would cause the sea-breezes to develop early. On Thursday, we should be more entrenched in hot and muggy air mass, across the area. The GFS and Euro have 850mb temps to be +20C or higher from morning to evening with a 10m WSW flow. I think we could see temps mid-upper 90s over NYC and NJ on Thursday and low 90s for some coastal locations. I also don't think we see a big severe wx threat, with the cold front on Thurs. night or Friday. The cold front doesn't look as strong as last week, and most of shear and dynamics going over well to our north. Looks it be just cool us down somewhat from the big heat on Thursday. agreed, the heat dome looks to be over the area on Thursday and then another dry frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Nicest beaches around these parts are the north shore of Montauk (block island sound). Calm water, crystal clear and a pristine scenery. When on a boat in these parts, you can clearly see the bottom in 20' of water. I'm used to the stunning Mediterranean also but there are some nice beaches around here also. From Jersey shore to the Hamptons is all the same. Nice ocean beaches but no comparison to the crystal clear waters of Europe. There are nice beaches that stretch from Easy Marion, LI to Orient Point. Plus you have to drive forever and pay up the ass just to go to the beach. It costs like 40 bucks to park a car plus gas costs just to sit on sand on the east end. Back on topic, if it's really going to get into the upper 90's, then f* k it let's go for 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Plus you have to drive forever and pay up the ass just to go to the beach. It costs like 40 bucks to park a car plus gas costs just to sit on sand on the east end. Back on topic, if it's really going to get into the upper 90's, then f* k it let's go for 100. I agree. I don't really like the heat. But when it's unavoidable, I'm for us breaking records or just going really high. I like to see models show 850mb temps at +24C, before calling for 100Fs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 6z NAM has 90 degrees for NYC on Wednesday and 96+ for Thursday. Im going to earthlights' house for watermelon martinis and a tan by the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 This weather is boring, at least it is nice out, not looking forward to the disgusting heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 A-l-e-x, Waters around SNE are all still 50-55 degrees. Not sure where you saw that they are in the upper 60's. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44018 Our area waters are all 60-65. So we are 10 degrees warmer. Down in Cape May, NJ, the waters are up to 68 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Im going to earthlights' house for watermelon martinis and a tan by the pool. I'm coming in my bathing suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 6z NAM has 90 degrees for NYC on Wednesday and 96+ for Thursday. Im going to earthlights' house for watermelon martinis and a tan by the pool. I blame earthlight directly for this heat and will be sending my AC bill to him. He has been wishing it upon us since January. Maybe earthlights AC will break and his pool will spring a leak so he can suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 wow! Well son of a b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I blame earthlight directly for this heat and will be sending my AC bill to him. He has been wishing it upon us since January. Maybe earthlights AC will break and his pool will spring a leak so he can suffer. The local bodega may also be out of zima; there's more than one way to ruin an earthlight party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 The local bodega may also be out of zima; there's more than one way to ruin an earthlight party. hide the whip its too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 NAM now has 90 F tomorrow (Tuesday). Could be three days of 90 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 12z NAM for NYC: 86 tomorrow 93 for Wednesday Waiting for soundings to come out for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 98 degrees in the city Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 NAM now has 90 F tomorrow (Tuesday). Could be three days of 90 + For EWR: Soundings show 87 tomorrow and 94 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 For EWR: Soundings show 87 tomorrow and 94 on Wednesday. Weird..must be a resolution issue. The 12km NAM is showing 90 F for some reason (on the graphic). And Thursday is just an absolute blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 98 degrees in the city Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 For EWR: Soundings show 87 tomorrow and 94 on Wednesday. MOS is 89 and 95 http://www.nws.noaa....all.pl?sta=KEWR nyc is 86 and 92 http://www.nws.noaa....all.pl?sta=KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 MOS is 89 and 95 http://www.nws.noaa....all.pl?sta=KEWR nyc is 86 and 92 http://www.nws.noaa....all.pl?sta=KNYC 88 and 95 for LGA, with a low of 80 wed night http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 with a low of 80 wed night that rules. im sure algreek/sundog will love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Weird..must be a resolution issue. The 12km NAM is showing 90 F for some reason (on the graphic). And Thursday is just an absolute blowtorch. It's a very small area in NE NJ that the NAM has 90F Tuesday. The MOS has 90F in Teterboro: http://www.nws.noaa....met.pl?sta=KTEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 It's a very small area in NE NJ that the NAM has 90F Tuesday. The MOS has 90F in Teterboro: http://www.nws.noaa....met.pl?sta=KTEB Figured. Not bad. Upper 80s will do just fine. The 90 F is nitpicking for the consecutive 90+ days argument. If we get 90 F at EWR tomorrow there's a very good chance we could verify a heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 that rules. im sure algreek/sundog will love that. Alex can always go swimming in the sound to cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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