earthlight Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Over the past few days we've seen several posters go back and forth on the general idea of heat over the next few weeks. Myself and Tom (Isotherm) have taken a very strong stance in support of a big time heat ridge building over the Central and Eastern United States. Although the next week may offer a few days in the mid 80's with temperatures maybe getting near 90 in the warm spots and sun, the real heat likely comes around Memorial Day and into the beginning of June. Around this time most global ensembles break down the block which was present over Canada. This blocking ridge rolls westward and heights fall over Central Canada, resulting in a large trough over the Western United States. We saw this exact same process occur at the end of the winter, when the blocking regime broke down and a large trough developed over the Western US. there is good support for Sonoroan heat release amongst telleconnectors and global index's. Todays 12z GFS offers a look into the potential that this period offers for the first real bout of summer-like heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 By the way, we shouldn't rule out the potential for 90 degree temperatures prior to the longer-range heat threat, either. Those who are writing it off completely are posting irrationally. The 06z DGEX shows this idea this coming Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 John, Great post and agree on all counts. Just posted in the other thread about Thursday hitting 90F at KEWR IMO. I think the whole Tues-Fri period will be very warm in the 80s. Beyond that, we have a surging NAO and diving PNA, which at this time of year generally still yeild lower than normal heights in the PAC NW and Eastern Canada, with a large upper ridge over the Central/Eastern US. Could see the heat ballooning eastward in a classic fashion, up and around the sfc ridge centered in the TN valley/OH valley. Thus the heat will be arriving from the W/WNW, a direction which offers more extreme, widespread heat potential. As this is still pretty far out into the future (D8-10), there's always a chance it falls apart. But I believe there's strong support in both the analog and model realms. We'll see how it goes, but I'm pumped to finally get some summer wx in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 yes i know, its the 192 hr 18z DGEX image but it still applies to the thread timeline of an early June heat wave. Its about to go nuts with the ridging over the plains and the rest of the east.. gfs/euro 8-10 day 500mb mean charts, gfs has a sharper trough over the west and the euro has it further off the coast. But this is pretty good agreement on heat making its way over the east, and potentially parking itself over the east until something breaks down the heat release. Nice posts btw, john/tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Excellent thread John and Excellent post Tom.I agree with you both.THe heat is going to come in quite viciously with a lot of people getting heatstroke and just plain lethargic from temps and high dewpoints.The body is going to be shocked from a sudden heat surge,especially given the spring we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 An official heat wave in NYC is three consecutive days 90 or above ...The following is a list of heat waves that came before the end of the first week in June... year...dates.......max. temps...95+ 1880...5/25-27.....96 95 95 1895...5/30-6/3... 96 96 96 1896...5/9-11...... 92 1899...6/5-8.........95 1919...6/2-4........ 95 1925...6/3-7........ 99 99 98 96 1930...6/3-5........ 94 1931...5/28-30.... 93 1933...6/7-9.........97 95 1966...6/4-6........ 95 1976...4/17-19.... 96 1984...6/7-11...... 96 95 1986...5/30-6/1... 94 1987...5/29-6/1... 97 2000...5/7-9........ 93 2001...5/2-4........ 92 2002...4/16-18.... 96 2008...6/7-10...... 96 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Awesome signal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 For the little that it's worth, the 18z GFS continues with the idea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 And one last thing...the height anomalies on the 18z GFS. Looks good from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Alot of the guidance has made shift towards the "Sonarian Heat ridge" at 12z. Including the Euro Ensemble mean:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 Major shift towards the warm solutions on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 John, Great post and agree on all counts. Just posted in the other thread about Thursday hitting 90F at KEWR IMO. I think the whole Tues-Fri period will be very warm in the 80s. Beyond that, we have a surging NAO and diving PNA, which at this time of year generally still yeild lower than normal heights in the PAC NW and Eastern Canada, with a large upper ridge over the Central/Eastern US. Could see the heat ballooning eastward in a classic fashion, up and around the sfc ridge centered in the TN valley/OH valley. Thus the heat will be arriving from the W/WNW, a direction which offers more extreme, widespread heat potential. As this is still pretty far out into the future (D8-10), there's always a chance it falls apart. But I believe there's strong support in both the analog and model realms. We'll see how it goes, but I'm pumped to finally get some summer wx in here. West North West is my favorite direction for heat-- it hasn't even hit 80 here this year, and we may clear that hurdle and go straight to 90+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Major shift towards the warm solutions on the Euro. It will be interesting to see how the guidance handle the omega block over the E PAC which pumps up the ridge over our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Excellent thread John and Excellent post Tom.I agree with you both.THe heat is going to come in quite viciously with a lot of people getting heatstroke and just plain lethargic from temps and high dewpoints.The body is going to be shocked from a sudden heat surge,especially given the spring we have had. I don't care for the heat much but I would like a nice active pattern for thunderstorms and severe weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Another GFS run with a huge heat ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Another GFS run with a huge heat ridge 13C h85 temps tho? note the s/w trof there perhaps knocking down the temps aloft. That is a crap shoot this far out. Under those heights, you would expect h85 temps at least 15-17C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 This is still way way out in an unstable pattern, I'm not giving any of these solutions much chance as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Even the Euro backed off somewhat last night. I think the extent of the heat/warmth is just question here. The forecast +NAO and -PNA connections last night still do support a rise in the heights over the Eastern US overall between 5/27-6/04 period. I believe some hot days are coming for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Tricky Tricky......will the pattern finally break or are the models still rushing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Heat always ten days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 At least so far, the Euro is not allowing the trough out west to dig enough to really pump up the ridge to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 At least so far, the Euro is not allowing the trough out west to dig enough to really pump up the ridge to the east. Last nights 00Z euro really back off, could be a blip run, but there are one or two warm days mixed in with highs in the mid 80's but no extended heat waves by any stretch. Still, if you were gonna get heat in the east, this would be a good setup if the trough really digs, as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I can't believe people are posting 276-hour GEFS maps as "proof" of this monster heat wave. There's really no point in discussing this until we get a bit closer, as the models can completely flip-flop in this range without any sensibility. Also, you have to ride the seasonal trend...most torches have failed this spring. This week was supposed to be so hot and yet we were stuck in the 50s yesterday, are stuck in the 50s today, and now the local forecasts are only calling for low 70s Wed-Fri. It's late May....it's supposed to be in the 70s and 80s sometimes to offset the crappy days with E winds and highs in the 50s. A real torch means 90+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 I can't believe people are posting 276-hour GEFS maps as "proof" of this monster heat wave. There's really no point in discussing this until we get a bit closer, as the models can completely flip-flop in this range without any sensibility. You've got to be kidding me. There are several posts detailing the transition of the blocking regime, the changing global index's towards a +NAO and -PNA, and the support for a Sonorian heat ridge. And also, who posted any maps as proof of a "monster heat wave"? We are posting the GEFS ensemble means as backup to the idea that a big heat ridge makes sense in the pattern and has support from global models. The general condescending tone of this post was completely irrelevant to the conversation, which is specifically discussing a long range heat wave potential. Regardless, the 10 day means continue to advertise this potential warmer pattern and heat wave potential again at 00z. The Euro backed off and has been flip flopping a good bit, but the GFS remains consistent. The pattern breakdown has plenty of support from all global ensemble means--it's just a matter of the amplitude and positioning of the shortwave trough on the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 You've got to be kidding me. There are several posts detailing the transition of the blocking regime, the changing global index's towards a +NAO and -PNA, and the support for a Sonorian heat ridge. And also, who posted any maps as proof of a "monster heat wave"? We are posting the GEFS ensemble means as backup to the idea that a big heat ridge makes sense in the pattern and has support from global models. The general condescending tone of this post was completely irrelevant to the conversation, which is specifically discussing a long range heat wave potential. Regardless, the 10 day means continue to advertise this potential warmer pattern and heat wave potential again at 00z. The Euro backed off and has been flip flopping a good bit, but the GFS remains consistent. The pattern breakdown has plenty of support from all global ensemble means--it's just a matter of the amplitude and positioning of the shortwave trough on the west coast. I'm just kidding you around as it seems several people are "heat happy" in this thread. I agree that most of the models show a pattern change towards warmer than normal conditions, although I question how much value there is in posting maps at 240 hours, 276 hours, etc. We've also had a +NAO for most of the late winter/spring without seeing any torches, so having a trough over Greenland doesn't guarantee much warmer than normal temperatures in the Northeast. We should see mild conditions with a +NAO/-PNA, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a "Sonoran ridge," a term that is being overused a lot lately...850s of +13C or +14C is not a Sonoran outbreak by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Summers like last year are not the norm in NY metro and I think alot of people need to realize this. Long range ensembles support a western atlantic ridge and mean trough in the Ohio valley keeping us in the transition zone. I think we see alot of remnants from east coast landfalls and convection due to high humidity and SW flow from the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Long range ensembles support a western atlantic ridge and mean trough in the Ohio valley keeping us in the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 12z GFS has the Sonoran look in the long-range, but tempers the heat for the Northeast with a couple days of showers and then a backdoor front that brings the 10C contour back south of us, We do have that big pool of 30C 850s over the Southern Plains to tap according to this run, so wouldn't be surprised if the heat arrives for a day or two. However, the high pressure being offshore argues for S/SE winds that would limit warmth on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Im talking about the overall pattern this summer, not the next few weeks. Lots of discussion about this in the tropical threads. The only way were going to see persistent heat is if blocking returns in a more favorable location with ridging over the east coast as oppose to the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 12z euro long range..Ridging near greenland keeps heights suppressed in the northeast, torch elsewhere. Subject to change obviousy, its a 200 hr map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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