ORH_wxman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I've been one of the few not on board for storms today since Sunday. Others have been dryhumping today for days. And Tip says it's sunnier today than modelled There's been decent sunshine in E MA. Won't change that we have crappy ML lapse rates and no shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Not with a cloudy afternoon in place Then why do we have 1000 J/KG of SBcape with 500 J/KG of MLcape and LI values around -2C to -4C? Granted these higher dewpoints are helping but alot of the work came from what sun we did have. It didn't matter if we had full sun anyways, instability values wouldn't get much above 1500 J/KG (except sfc-based cape) due to the poor lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I've been one of the few not on board for storms today since Sunday. Others have been dryhumping today for days. And Tip says it's sunnier today than modelled Not sure why this event has always looked pretty crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 241734Z - 241930Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL MARGINAL/SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW...WITH A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ISSUANCE BY 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN VT THROUGH ERN/CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA WITHIN A BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO BECOME ROBUST GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 DEG C/KM AT 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS. DESPITE AREAS OF SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND PERHAPS YIELD ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CORES. ..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 40247430 40377586 41067697 41727672 42557602 43557418 43817228 43647120 43147080 42407089 41547153 41267212 40687347 40557409 40247430 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Don't fool boredom and interest for dryhumping... hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 What is the actual difference between base velocity and storm relative mean velocity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 84/64 in Central Sq Cambridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 15z HRRR suggests will and ORH gets in on a line that extends from maybe tolland up to Boston's north shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 There is a decent amount of 0-1km and 0-6km shear.. helicity is as marginal as it gets.. HRRR suggests place to be for any storms will be between ORH and BOS.. In the Boston Metro West area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 There is a decent amount of 0-1km and 0-6km shear.. helicity is as marginal as it gets.. HRRR suggests place to be for any storms will be between ORH and BOS.. In the Boston Metro West area.. 0-6km shear is less than 30 knots...that is horrid. What does the HRRR show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 0-6km shear is less than 30 knots...that is horrid. What does the HRRR show? 35-40 knots in some areas... decent maybe being an overexxageration LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 35-40 knots in some areas... decent maybe being an overexxageration LOL Well 35-40 knots of vertical shear would be pretty damn decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Well 35-40 knots of vertical shear would be pretty damn decent. It seems localized but it is there.. but then again.. this entire event will be localized.. lets get those storms out west into this more favorable environment now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 BOX radar went back up at 2:33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 BOX radar went back up at 2:33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I bored I feel like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm bored I want to feel you Absolutely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Absolutely not. Maybe lightning will strike the tip of ur weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 ML lapse rates steepened some to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 What timeframe for storms in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 ML lapse rates steepened some to our west That helps. Check this out Looks like tornado one of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 What timeframe for storms in CT? After 4pm to about 8pm.. although CT may not get much at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Decent cells in Cambridge, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks like I get to drive home through a lil' somethin somethin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 After 4pm to about 8pm.. although CT may not get much at all HRR says it's mostly a pike south event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 HRR says it's mostly a pike south event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah..looks like ORH south to me with some heavier plain showers north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah..looks like ORH south to me with some heavier plain showers north hahaha okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah..looks like ORH south to me with some heavier plain showers north The 17z run likes you however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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