Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Now I can look towards Friday. Lmao theres going to be some storms relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Visible satellite suggests it will not be hard to clear out tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Straightline winds and hail tmrw says box away from coast.. yet wiz gave up.. awkward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Straightline winds and hail tmrw says box away from coast.. yet wiz gave up.. awkward ? I always thought we'd see an isolated svt threat...I didn't give up. I have to work 11-6 so I won't be around anyways. I'm much more intrested in Friday anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 NO THUNDER OR LIGHTNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I bet someone in Central MA sees a severe thunderstorm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Well.. time to take a peek at stuff now that I'm home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It's kind of funny there is higher instability at BOS than BDL on both the GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 LOL all of SNE in a slight risk..... This is actually looking pretty good by our standards.. ...NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WWD INTO THE OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AWAY FROM LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BELT OF STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF THE OH RIVER...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ONGOING BOW APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ATTM. OVERALL...EXPECT BROAD/WIDESPREAD ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR AND SE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks like SE NH NE MA are going to be the prime areas for storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Winds are going to be the main and likely only threat other then slightly larger than pea sized hail. Looks like a north and along of pike event. Lack of helicity and shear will probably maintain some nice lines but not enough to drop any good hail or anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I am confident in a good day for maybe even me tomorrow.... we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY SUNRISE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING RAPIDLY INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SSW. BY MIDDAY A TRAILING SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS NY STATE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DILEMMA WILL BE HOW MUCH SOLAR HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUD APPROACHING LATER THIS MORNING FROM CONVECTION CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NY STATE AND PA. HOWEVER THE 00Z NAM SUGGEST 2M TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH IT/S SURFACE DEW PTS CLIMB TO AROUND 70S TAFTN WHICH RESULTS IN SB CAPES UPWARDS OF 1800 J/KG. GIVEN TD/S WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 70 DEG SB CAPES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 1000J/KG IS MORE LIKELY PER THE 00Z GFS...WHICH IS MARGINAL TO MODEST SB INSTABILITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. REGARDING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACTUALLY DECREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS MODEST WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH RRQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER...MARGINAL SB INSTAB AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER IF SURFACE HEATING IS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED /CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER PA AND NY ERODES/THINS QUICKER THAN EXPECTED/ CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS CLIMB TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES ALONG WITH SFC TD/S IN THE 60S! THEREFORE IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT THE LATE DAY COMMUTE. GIVEN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERATE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER 21Z SREF POPS AND WILL INSERT ENHANCED WORDING REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I guess there will be some scattered severe today. Good call Wiz and Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I guess there will be some scattered severe today. Good call Wiz and Jay This was always the potential, but hard to get excited when you think about what will happen in the Plains again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This was always the potential, but hard to get excited when you think about what will happen in the Plains again. We'll probably have 5-10 reports..mostly from Wiz..while the Plains have 200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This was always the potential, but hard to get excited when you think about what will happen in the Plains again. There may be some marginal reports but not a svr event to get excited about. I envision many "trees down" reports when it's really a dead branch on someone's lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 With marginal shear and only modest cape today won't be our day. If instability over performs isolated severe definitely possible but storm organization will be lacking with less than 30 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think I have to work all day so I really won't be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Storms probably become widespread this afternoon given the location of the 250mb jet streak. Weak mid level flow and paltry lapse rates will keep convection from becoming widespread severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just as long as we finally get some decent storms today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just as long as we finally get some decent storms today! I have no doubt in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 LOL jesus saw something insane on twitter... no rain in El Paso since Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 70/65 at BOS without any type of heating at 10am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Storms probably become widespread this afternoon given the location of the 250mb jet streak. Weak mid level flow and paltry lapse rates will keep convection from becoming widespread severe. Yeah lapse rates blow. They weren't half bad on the OKX sounding, but Albany sounding was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 HRRR seems to like the Pike area on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 At least lapse rates should be much better on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 HRRR seems to like the Pike area on south. could ya throw me the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 could ya throw me the link http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t5&run_time=24+May+2011+-+11Z Click on composite reflectivity. If you want to have some fun, choose the SC sector and check out the cells it's showing for Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.