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Day 15 GFS Blizzard!


Sarwx

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--NAO goes WAY off the charts from that run. Major cold would probably enter my area a couple of days later.

With that strong of a -NAO I suspect it is showing heights too high over the East, regardless of that western trough. Of course as Wes made note of in another post, the -NAO can yield less results for the East this time of year it seems. Although, one as strong as depicted here, I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo.

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Yeah the -ve NAO is pretty impressive on the ECM with some pretty strong heights heading into Greenland and also probably the start of a weaker Scandinavia upper block as well by 240hrs.

Still a fairly long way out even though most models agree on the general idea of a -ve NAO.

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With that strong of a -NAO I suspect it is showing heights too high over the East, regardless of that western trough. Of course as Wes made note of in another post, the -NAO can yield less results for the East this time of year it seems. Although, one as strong as depicted here, I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo.

As always, trying to learn ...

"I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo."

What does this mean? Trough where?

Thanks!

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With that strong of a -NAO I suspect it is showing heights too high over the East, regardless of that western trough. Of course as Wes made note of in another post, the -NAO can yield less results for the East this time of year it seems. Although, one as strong as depicted here, I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo.

It likely is somewhat overdone but the 12Z GFS is nearly identical at 240 hours, the SE ridge may even be a bit stronger on the GFS...the 12Z GFS and Euro are about as similar as you're ever going to see them be on on any given run at 240 hours. The GFS indicates the cold coming eastward within 48 hours afterward but it may be too late with it anyway with a -NAO such as that.

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We're going to have to see what other biases the GFS now has due to the fact the upgrades were put in to curb the SE Bias. So far the model has performed great within 120, with the exception of underforecasting coastal development further out.

Be interesting to see if it has some of the medium range SW biases the Euro often has.

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