Sarwx Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggwx Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Get your milk, bread, and TP...you have been warned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 That's a pretty sweet 500mb map. Count on seeing that same blizzard at least 30 more times this winter at day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Yeah Baby! Won't happen. Not............................................until Dec. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Yeah Baby! Won't happen. Not............................................until Dec. 5 My guess is December 7 when Eastern shuts down for good...I posted over there that the one AFTER the t-day weekend storm is the one that will work out since there is a history of early december snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 NW trend please!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 NW trend please!!! Hopefully not too far NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 18Z: aaaaaaaaaand it's gone. It'll come back soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 weather.gov's model page is down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harstorm Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 18Z: aaaaaaaaaand it's gone. It'll come back soon... Let the flip-flopping begin:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Hopefully not too far NW.. Hopefully ALL the way NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Hopefully ALL the way NW. The arctic is headed your way for the next few weeks. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 18Z: aaaaaaaaaand it's gone. It'll come back soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 move the heavy stuff east please!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 This is the same storm that was on the models this time last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Get your milk, bread, and TP...you have been warned! Something like the Thanksgiving 1971 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Atlantic looks to be in decent shape the week of 11/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Day 10 00Z Euro....50/50 low - check, -NAO - check, overall pattern over NOAM - CRAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 0z Euro hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Figures, a snowstorm dropping a foot over the house the week I take the family to Disney World. Nothing new there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 0z Euro hr 240 --NAO goes WAY off the charts from that run. Major cold would probably enter my area a couple of days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 --NAO goes WAY off the charts from that run. Major cold would probably enter my area a couple of days later. With that strong of a -NAO I suspect it is showing heights too high over the East, regardless of that western trough. Of course as Wes made note of in another post, the -NAO can yield less results for the East this time of year it seems. Although, one as strong as depicted here, I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Yeah the -ve NAO is pretty impressive on the ECM with some pretty strong heights heading into Greenland and also probably the start of a weaker Scandinavia upper block as well by 240hrs. Still a fairly long way out even though most models agree on the general idea of a -ve NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 With that strong of a -NAO I suspect it is showing heights too high over the East, regardless of that western trough. Of course as Wes made note of in another post, the -NAO can yield less results for the East this time of year it seems. Although, one as strong as depicted here, I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo. As always, trying to learn ... "I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo." What does this mean? Trough where? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 With that strong of a -NAO I suspect it is showing heights too high over the East, regardless of that western trough. Of course as Wes made note of in another post, the -NAO can yield less results for the East this time of year it seems. Although, one as strong as depicted here, I'm still thinking lower heights in the East and what should be more of a broader based trough in response to that, ala many times in the winter of 78-79 when there was a -PDO, -NAO combo. It likely is somewhat overdone but the 12Z GFS is nearly identical at 240 hours, the SE ridge may even be a bit stronger on the GFS...the 12Z GFS and Euro are about as similar as you're ever going to see them be on on any given run at 240 hours. The GFS indicates the cold coming eastward within 48 hours afterward but it may be too late with it anyway with a -NAO such as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 We're going to have to see what other biases the GFS now has due to the fact the upgrades were put in to curb the SE Bias. So far the model has performed great within 120, with the exception of underforecasting coastal development further out. Be interesting to see if it has some of the medium range SW biases the Euro often has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The 384h storm is back via the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Goes to show Winter is not too far around the corner lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I feel confident in the Nov 22nd storm. Good agreement with the GFS and Euro. Will be interesting to see where it tracks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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