Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The visible satellite continues to push the clearing NNE. Now about to hit Jersey. If it continues, it might actually pass thru us, in a couple hours. Fingers crossed. doesnt look like it--maybe south of I 195 in Jersey, but NYC north and east remains socked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Update: still cloudy and off and on showers. Grass to wet and high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Clearing past the Delaware River now in Western NJ..hoping to see the sun. Tomorrow looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Fog/Drizzle 60.6/60 SE@9mph 0.06" rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Clearing past the Delaware River now in Western NJ..hoping to see the sun. Tomorrow looks awesome. Been following the progression of it on satellite. Its trying very hard to push NNE. It might just make it into our area, in the next hour or 2. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Been following the progression of it on satellite. Its trying very hard to push NNE. It might just make it into our area, in the next hour or 2. Fingers crossed. Just in time for sunset. But none the less today should be the cooler/uglier days for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I'm sorry folks, whatever your take on this Spring may be, temp forecasts have been way too high from all sources for several weeks now. There is something called pattern persistence in meteorology and the good meteorologists should have factored that into their casts by now...I'm quite frankly shocked by how little credit is given to stepping out the door each morning and recognizing a pattern.<br><br>Here's to hoping for some warmth, or at least sun.<br><br>Incidentally, Fairbanks AK's highs have been running about 10f above NYC for quite a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I'm sorry folks, whatever your take on this Spring may be, temp forecasts have been way too high from all sources for several weeks now. There is something called pattern persistence in meteorology and the good meteorologists should have factored that into their casts by now...I'm quite frankly shocked by how little credit is given to stepping out the door each morning and recognizing a pattern.<br><br>Here's to hoping for some warmth, or at least sun.<br><br>Incidentally, Fairbanks AK's highs have been running about 10f above NYC for quite a while now. Clouds have been the biggest factor of late. Take Saturday with highs near 80 with a few hours of sun - thats all it takes. The next few days offer the bext hope of warmth in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Check out that nice supercell out near State College Right along the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Check out that nice supercell out near State College Right along the warm front BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 413 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... CENTRAL JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR ALLENSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BELLEVILLE AROUND 420 PM EDT... STRODES MILLS AROUND 425 PM EDT... YEAGERTOWN AND BURNHAM AROUND 435 PM EDT... MILROY AND WALNUT AROUND 440 PM EDT... ALFARATA AND REEDS GAP STATE PARK AROUND 445 PM EDT... WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. TAKE COVER INSIDE NOW. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. AVOID WINDOWS. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Check out that nice supercell out near State College Right along the warm front The rotation near MCALISTERVILLE, PA is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Nam now gets us into the 80s tomorrow ahead of the showers/storms. In previous runs it showed clouds/showers over us which is why is was so cool. We should still get warmer than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Tornado warning on that cell in central PA..Nice rotation, clear hook on radar. Tornado warning issued edit: some weakening now..and its in a mountanous area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I guess its all relative to location, out here in Jersey its been one of the best springs ever if you minus out the cutoff low. what are you smoking? The only consecutive nice days were that one 7 day stretch of sun and 70s and that was it. Every other day and then some have been cloudy. Thats not nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 what are you smoking? The only consecutive nice days were that one 7 day stretch of sun and 70s and that was it. Every other day and then some have been cloudy. Thats not nice weather. Agree.Update for the update: still cloudy. Drying out some. Looks like showers tonight from the pa storms. Make the rain stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 As many of us thought, the torch is failing miserably. Currently 58.5/58 with a light mist and deep overcast...where are my days and days of 85-90F weather, Isotherm? High of only 59.0F yesterday, almost 15 degrees below normal. Not impressive for late May....I was sleeping in heavy blankets last night. Let's wait until the week plays out before calling bust. Tuesday-Friday are the days in question. NYC/NJ was the region under debate, specifically the EWR bet that I raised last night (and still believe they'll surpass 86F, which BTW, I'm still waiting for TheTrials to man up and take the bet, he was too sissy to take it last night). PS - sleeping in heavy blankets? With temps in the 50s? Ball's up man, I had the fan going last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 what are you smoking? The only consecutive nice days were that one 7 day stretch of sun and 70s and that was it. Every other day and then some have been cloudy. Thats not nice weather. Why does it have to be warm to be nice. The other day it was pouring in the city and I was basking in the sun all day, once again all relative to ones local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 May 1998 had 16 or 17 consecutive days of rain IIRC.I believe one period in 2003 or 2004 had a similar stretch.While NYC has not had 11 consecutive days with measureable rainfall this past stretch,I know others have had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Let's wait until the week plays out before calling bust. Tuesday-Friday are the days in question. NYC/NJ was the region under debate, specifically the EWR bet that I raised last night (and still believe they'll surpass 86F, which BTW, I'm still waiting for TheTrials to man up and take the bet, he was too sissy to take it last night). PS - sleeping in heavy blankets? With temps in the 50s? Ball's up man, I had the fan going last night. It was cold last night. If I am cold then it's definitely cold. It was in the low 50's. I had to close the windows and I NEVER do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 With temps now climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s my guess is we won't see to much of a dropoff overnight and it will feel increasingly muggy. Tend to think that maybe far NW NJ gets in on the tstorm action but the rest of us just get some scattered showers out of it. Some of the forecasts now calling for dry weather Wednesday and Thursday and after tomorrow night no greater than a 30% chance of precip the rest of the week/weekend, but I'm guessing that will change. It was cold last night. If I am cold then it's definitely cold. It was in the low 50's. I had to close the windows and I NEVER do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Shameless plug...but here is our twitter page with constant updates throughout the day. Warnings..watches..thoughts...etc. http://www.twitter.com/nymetrowx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 730 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTHEASTERN CARBON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT * AT 728 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JORDAN VALLEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF LEHIGHTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... NEFFS...EMERALD...SLATINGTON AND SCHNECKSVILLE BY 735 PM EDT... WALNUTPORT AND COFFEETOWN BY 740 PM EDT... NORTHAMPTON BY 745 PM EDT... BEERSVILLE BY 750 PM EDT... BATH BY 800 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 758 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EASTON... EXTREME WEST CENTRAL HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 830 PM EDT * AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NORTHAMPTON...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF ALLENTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BATH BY 810 PM EDT... BETHLEHEM BY 815 PM EDT... NAZARETH AND 6 MILES NORTH OF HELLERTOWN BY 820 PM EDT... OLD ORCHARD AND TATAMY BY 825 PM EDT... GLENDON...WILSON...EASTON AND FORKS BY 830 PM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO TWO INCH SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 that updraft is at 47kft and riding directly along the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Good low level shear on the warm front..makes sense that this has a moderate couplet right now. 0-1km helicity values over 350 m2/s2 in isolated locations and you can see the higher values extending east. Instability is meager but it can survive a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 i think some of that rain will get into the area but don't think the instability can make it, too bad, I love storms at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 i think some of that rain will get into the area but don't think the instability can make it, too bad, I love storms at night. Everything is very stable towards the city and the warm front is draped kinda southeast..but it's very interesting to see severe convection maintained on the warm front. The low level shear on warm fronts is always impressive...cool to see rotation/couplet in a low instability environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Everything is very stable towards the city and the warm front is draped kinda southeast..but it's very interesting to see severe convection maintained on the warm front. The low level shear on warm fronts is always impressive...cool to see rotation/couplet in a low instability environment. warm fronts this time of year can really be delicious for severe weather and surprising too, they seem to sneak up just looking at this line, I don't know, it may bring the whole unstable environment with it and sustain the convection, not the severe tornadic convection, but some good lightning, thunder, and of course, more of what we don't need, rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 831 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MORRISTOWN... NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOMERVILLE... NORTHERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEWTON... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 930 PM EDT * AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF NEWTON TO OXFORD TO GLENDON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF NEWTON TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTON TO EASTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A WIND GUST OF 68 MPH WAS JUST RECEIVED IN FORKS TOWNSHIP. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... NEWTON...HACKETTSTOWN...BLOOMSBURY AND ALLAMUCHY AROUND 840 PM EDT... HAMPTON AND ANDOVER AROUND 845 PM EDT... STANHOPE...NETCONG...LONG VALLEY AND LAKE MOHAWK AROUND 850 PM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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