Shades Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 New update concerning fog from Upton, under their aviation section, but I believe this should also be updated in public forecast grids. May yet still be. Typically I don't make an issue with forecasts, but fog is a thorn in my side, I was once involved in a near fatal accident with visibility/fog a culprit in its cause. There are more drivers at night on weekends than weekdays, especially late nights, which is when fog can be most dense. To not to include it in the forecast grids with additional emphasis but only give guidance/mention for aviation purposes is disconcerting, especially under what is ideal conditions for its advection/development. WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT EASTERLY.THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE REGION.IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES.TIMING OF THE LOWERING CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR SO EITHERWAY FROM WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURINGSUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSISTTHROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Interesting to see the divide between some here on the heat next week. Which side of that divide do you fall on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 A little OT, but this should be good for next winter....big winter incoming http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/21/icelands-active-volcano-erupts-scientists-say/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Did you miss out on the April rains? Trenton had over 6"... Hmm, I'll have to check my station, not home right now, but I do think April was very wet. May however has not been nearly as impressive as areas to the N/W of Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Which side of that divide do you fall on? I don't believe he has delcared his position yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 86-90F Wednesday through Friday? Even for up here? I think you're crazy. Most local forecasts have low-mid 70s for Westchester with clouds and showers. Nate, we both know local forecasts often can't be trusted at this range and certainly have high bust potential w/ the two heavy-hitter models world's apart. The reason for the difference b/t the ECM and GFS is due in large part to the handling of the short wave energy in central US -- The s/w as depicted on the ECMWF has quite a bit more amplitude than the same s/w portrayed on the GFS, valid Thursday 12z. As a result, heights on the ECMWF are pumped up to near 582dm along the east coast while the GFS indicates heights will only reach the mid 570s dm in NJ/NYC. I guess we'll see how it plays out, but my money is on the warmer solution, and those fcst highs you see in the low/mid 70s may bust by 10 degrees or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Yup, I posted about it a few days ago. The Sonoran heat release has pretty good support right now. I think early June lines up well with the pattern for a big time heat wave. The Euro is not quite there yet but the MREF are in relative agreement on the pattern progression. Yeah I'm definitely in your camp on this one. I have June as giving us the warmest departures of the summer, not necessarily the highest temps, but relative to normals I think the next few weeks could be interesting. Early month has potential to parallel 2008 with the intense Sonoran heat release. Also as progged on most modelling, upper level ridge position would support WNWLY/NWLY downsloping sfc winds (in conjunction with > +20c 850s), a favorable orientation for big heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 today was the warmest day so far this month...78 this afternoon...If this stands it will be the second coolest max for any May in NYC...The minimum so far is 46...That's the eight warmest in NYC May weather history... Warmest monthly minimum... 49 in 1982 48 in 1899 48 in 1910 47 in 1942 47 in 1944 47 in 1969 47 in 1991 46 in 2011 tied with other years... coolest monthly maximum... 75 in 1924 78 in 2011 79 in 2005 79 in 2003 79 in 1983 79 in 1928 79 in 1927 79 in 1915 80 in 1968 80 in 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Hmm, I'll have to check my station, not home right now, but I do think April was very wet. May however has not been nearly as impressive as areas to the N/W of Monmouth County. True, but its not over yet. 3" and counting and still 10 days to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Nate, we both know local forecasts often can't be trusted at this range and certainly have high bust potential w/ the two heavy-hitter models world's apart. The reason for the difference b/t the ECM and GFS is due in large part to the handling of the short wave energy in central US -- The s/w as depicted on the ECMWF has quite a bit more amplitude than the same s/w portrayed on the GFS, valid Thursday 12z. As a result, heights on the ECMWF are pumped up to near 582dm along the east coast while the GFS indicates heights will only reach the mid 570s dm in NJ/NYC. I guess we'll see how it plays out, but my money is on the warmer solution, and those fcst highs you see in the low/mid 70s may bust by 10 degrees or more. Well, after seeing this link, maybe it will become clearer? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18802-ecmwf-upgrade/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The fog and drizzel have rolled in...high of 81 to a temp of 57 now....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 22, 2011 Author Share Posted May 22, 2011 whoa, really foggy outside cant see a good 400 feet in front of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Nate, we both know local forecasts often can't be trusted at this range and certainly have high bust potential w/ the two heavy-hitter models world's apart. The reason for the difference b/t the ECM and GFS is due in large part to the handling of the short wave energy in central US -- The s/w as depicted on the ECMWF has quite a bit more amplitude than the same s/w portrayed on the GFS, valid Thursday 12z. As a result, heights on the ECMWF are pumped up to near 582dm along the east coast while the GFS indicates heights will only reach the mid 570s dm in NJ/NYC. I guess we'll see how it plays out, but my money is on the warmer solution, and those fcst highs you see in the low/mid 70s may bust by 10 degrees or more. Local forecasters are likely to hedge towards climatology in the long-range, but at the same time, they are also not embracing the heat wave idea for 2 good reasons: poor wind direction and cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday are going to see a predominantly S/SSW flow; this is fine for NJ to get into the 85-90F range, but not so much for Westchester and Long Island where the sea breeze will play a key role. Also, we're likely to see some showers Monday as the warm front lifts north, a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday due to instability out ahead of the cold front....and now the 18z and 0z GFS have trended hard towards the 12z ECM in establishing a wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary that gives us +RA and a much cooler day on Wednesday. This afternoon's Euro was the first to pick up on it, but now all the models seem to be recognizing that a synoptic system may be traversing the region mid-week. In the long-range, the 18z and 0z GFS trended towards the much cooler 12z Euro with a cut-off low developing in the Southeast instead of the Sonoran ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Local forecasters are likely to hedge towards climatology in the long-range, but at the same time, they are also not embracing the heat wave idea for 2 good reasons: poor wind direction and cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday are going to see a predominantly S/SSW flow; this is fine for NJ to get into the 85-90F range, but not so much for Westchester and Long Island where the sea breeze will play a key role. Also, we're likely to see some showers Monday as the warm front lifts north, a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday due to instability out ahead of the cold front....and now the 18z and 0z GFS have trended hard towards the 12z ECM in establishing a wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary that gives us +RA and a much cooler day on Wednesday. This afternoon's Euro was the first to pick up on it, but now all the models seem to be recognizing that a synoptic system may be traversing the region mid-week. In the long-range, the 18z and 0z GFS trended towards the much cooler 12z Euro with a cut-off low developing in the Southeast instead of the Sonoran ridge. My take is that Monday will still be cool while the approaching warm front comes where NYC will struggle to reach 70 F but SW of the city will get warm where points east will be in the low clouds and fog all days where temps will probably not get any higher than the low 60's with showers a good bet in the evening when the warm fronts get close. Tuesday will be warmest day perhaps in the year where I believe the warmest spot like Newark and inland areas in NJ will be in the 85-88 F range and I won't be surprise if some areas in these areas could touch 90 F while in even city may reach 85 F. While on most of LI and Coastal CT will still get well into the 70's with exception of eastern LI and south facing shore mays only stay in the 60's with S/SW flow with chance that there could be some afternoon or evening thunderstorms with the instability in place and some of the storms away from the coast could be strong. Tuesday night or Wednesday a cold front will approach I believe it will pass just south of the area and possibly some waves like the models including both the GFS and the Euro hint could produces periods of rain which could keep the temps alot cooler than currently thinking right now. Rain may taper off by Thursday where I believe will be the nice day with low humidity before the front lifts back north as warm front on Friday and once again it will be uncertain how far north it will get to region which most likely it to south of the area where the temps will be mainly in the 60's to lower 70's at best if warm front remains south and there also is another threat more showers and possibly some thunderstorms if we do get in the warm sector but then it may clear by Saturday which could bring nice day in the 70's in most areas.Then a possible cut off low developed as hinted by the models during that time frame on Friday and keep things cool and wet. In the long range models like the GFS is hinting there could be a possible heat wave while the Euro model is hinting more cut off lows taking place. Alot of uncertainly will happen in our weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Local forecasters are likely to hedge towards climatology in the long-range, but at the same time, they are also not embracing the heat wave idea for 2 good reasons: poor wind direction and cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday are going to see a predominantly S/SSW flow; this is fine for NJ to get into the 85-90F range, but not so much for Westchester and Long Island where the sea breeze will play a key role. Also, we're likely to see some showers Monday as the warm front lifts north, a chance of isolated thunderstorms Tuesday due to instability out ahead of the cold front....and now the 18z and 0z GFS have trended hard towards the 12z ECM in establishing a wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary that gives us +RA and a much cooler day on Wednesday. This afternoon's Euro was the first to pick up on it, but now all the models seem to be recognizing that a synoptic system may be traversing the region mid-week. In the long-range, the 18z and 0z GFS trended towards the much cooler 12z Euro with a cut-off low developing in the Southeast instead of the Sonoran ridge. Ugh why can't we get a decent SE ridge inland over the Carolinas and have this cut off crap stuck somewhere in the West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Ugh why can't we get a decent SE ridge inland over the Carolinas and have this cut off crap stuck somewhere in the West? I would a like pattern with 80's and afternoon evening thunderstorms with the front stalling to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 00z GFS ens seems to have caved to the EC tnt. Favoring a ATL ocean ridge with troffing to its W. 00z ens has 576 dam on the GFS, which is not a torch. Would need a bit higher heights than that. 588 dam or more. I will lean a bit twds the EC solution and not twds a torch at this point. Keep in mind, the EC pretty much always is 12hrs or more ahead of the GFS with it's U/A depiction. Tnt seems like no change in that. This reminds me a lot of when the GFS has a bitterly cold signal in wither in the long range, then backs off as we get closer. We may see some heat from this tho, but I dont see a prolonged torch. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Not sure about the ensembles, but the op GFS was quite wet through its entire run. 00z GFS ens seems to have caved to the EC tnt. Favoring a ATL ocean ridge with troffing to its W. 00z ens has 576 dam on the GFS, which is not a torch. Would need a bit higher heights than that. 588 dam or more. I will lean a bit twds the EC solution and not twds a torch at this point. Keep in mind, the EC pretty much always is 12hrs or more ahead of the GFS with it's U/A depiction. Tnt seems like no change in that. This reminds me a lot of when the GFS has a bitterly cold signal in wither in the long range, then backs off as we get closer. We may see some heat from this tho, but I dont see a prolonged torch. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Not sure about the ensembles, but the op GFS was quite wet through its entire run. With the OP gfs showing a trof around the region, no wonder. But that is likely overdone. It's the long range at low res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Not sure about the ensembles, but the op GFS was quite wet through its entire run. If this pattern continues through the summer, it looks more and more like a year after the apex of the 11 year cycle kind of summer.... we should be looking at analogs like 1956, 1967, 1989, 2000.... I'm leaving out 1978 because that was coming out of an el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Its possible, but the Euro has also been quite wet as well so the GFS may not be that overdone, only time will tell. With the OP gfs showing a trof around the region, no wonder. But that is likely overdone. It's the long range at low res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 00Z NAM has small area of 80s confined to southern jersey sw PA pretty much where I said it should set up. No one torches through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Monday evening could see some heavy thunderstorms with the warm front and a nice rise in the PW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Nate, we both know local forecasts often can't be trusted at this range and certainly have high bust potential w/ the two heavy-hitter models world's apart. The reason for the difference b/t the ECM and GFS is due in large part to the handling of the short wave energy in central US -- The s/w as depicted on the ECMWF has quite a bit more amplitude than the same s/w portrayed on the GFS, valid Thursday 12z. As a result, heights on the ECMWF are pumped up to near 582dm along the east coast while the GFS indicates heights will only reach the mid 570s dm in NJ/NYC. I guess we'll see how it plays out, but my money is on the warmer solution, and those fcst highs you see in the low/mid 70s may bust by 10 degrees or more. The GFS has less amplitude that s/w you circled, because it has stronger with s/w compressing the heights ahead of it on Wednesday. When were dealing with more than one s/w's, the lead s/w tends to dampen out. This why I lean towards the Euro. And the 6z GFS is already weaker with lead s/w on Tues night/Wednesday and therefore has higher heights and 850mb temps on Thursday. I think Thursday has best chance this week of seeing into deep SW flow and less rainfall, with high temps in 86-92F for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Back to the clouds but suspect we some some breaks of sun later this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 00Z NAM has small area of 80s confined to southern jersey sw PA pretty much where I said it should set up. No one torches through 84 hours. Good call Awt Hard to buy heat this spring in the long range as this has been the second or third bust with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 drizzle has broken out here in central union county, I think this makes 9 days straight with at least a trace of precip here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 drizzle has broken out here in central union county, I think this makes 9 days straight with at least a trace of precip here Since that most beautiful stretch of weather two weeks ago, we have really paid for hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Here are the NAM's warmest temps next week. The approaching 90 idea is pretty much shot. Far SW areas get warm, but not to 90 and not in the immediate nyc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Since that most beautiful stretch of weather two weeks ago, we have really paid for hit. Since that great stretch last spring/summer this has been an atrocious spring, mainly due to the seemingly endless days of clouds. Im still not sold on a cool summer but I do think its a near lock for being wetter than normal. If we can get into some sun as we saw yesterday this week will be very warm to hot especially tue - wed. Anyone's guess memorial day weekend. 60 / cloudy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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