A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 As I wrote in the other thread about early June, I'm losing confidence in big heat next week...I agree with the numbers you toss out, whereas two to three days ago I was thinking mid 90s for the suburbs and 95-100 for NYC and EWR. Not seeing that anymore with 850s showing up around 16C and the wind direction being more W as opposed to WNW or NW, which is better for downsloping and keeping the seabreeze at bay. Just as all of them have this spring, next week's warm spell will probably be relatively pedestrian for the last days of May with one or two moderately hot days and then a major cooldown with highs in the 60s to low 70s by the end of the week. 850s are only like +4C for a couple days after the cold front, so we're likely not to warm to average highs. Should be pleasant though with low dewpoints and cool nights. west winds will keep the seabreeze at bay dude..... last summer, JFK regularly beat NYC with west winds.... we just dont want a southerly component unless its like WSW lol..... later in the summer even SW will get us over 90 as water temps are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 My high was in the mid 70's. Right now, it's 67 and humid. I got my fan going in my room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 My high was in the mid 70's. Right now, it's 67 and humid. I got my fan going in my room. You'll have the AC on next week You've love it-- watching the Mets play, with the music on loud in the background (you dont want to hear them lose lol), and the AC on-- it's all a normal part of summer in NY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 As I wrote in the other thread about early June, I'm losing confidence in big heat next week...I agree with the numbers you toss out, whereas two to three days ago I was thinking mid 90s for the suburbs and 95-100 for NYC and EWR. Not seeing that anymore with 850s showing up around 16C and the wind direction being more W as opposed to WNW or NW, which is better for downsloping and keeping the seabreeze at bay. Just as all of them have this spring, next week's warm spell will probably be relatively pedestrian for the last days of May with one or two moderately hot days and then a major cooldown with highs in the 60s to low 70s by the end of the week. 850s are only like +4C for a couple days after the cold front, so we're likely not to warm to average highs. Should be pleasant though with low dewpoints and cool nights. I really hope that cool down doesn't last too long after that warm spell where I like pleasant days with low humidity but 60's for high's in June are too cool. Don't forgot the GFS overdoes cool spells in the long range with 850 of 4 C is way too low for this time of year and more likely it would be like 6-8 C with temps mostly in the low to mid 70's with some upper 60's in the cooler spots with lows in the 50's with coolest spot on LI and higher terrain could get into the 40's for one or two nights. I think we may have just few days following the cold front with hopefully widespread thunderstorms and possibly some locally severe weather of at or below average temps. Eventually it will warm back up again with the humidity eventually slowly returning within week after the cool spell with perhaps bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms hopefully ahead of warm front that brings the area the best threat for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 eh...its was dry...but i cut some saturday and sunday, it was like i was not even there when i got to them today....grass growing quick. the upcoming heat and dry spell should do some good work on slowing the grass down anyho I wouldnt believe Zuckers doom and gloom for 60s next week too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 the upcoming heat and dry spell should do some good work on slowing the grass down anyho I wouldnt believe Zuckers dyoom and gloom for 60s next week too much I hope so. I don't think I cut as much as you do, but that week of rain really screwed things up. On my last lawn saturday that was clumping like no other, random shower just poured on me. Made a complete mess. Just has been my luck last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 6z NAM has 80's everyday with the hottest day being Memorial day, which is 89-92 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 So far for this warm period in the NYC major stations: NYC: +9 (24th), +10 (25th), +5 (26th) Average: +8 EWR: +12, +9, +6 Average: +9 LGA: +8, +8, +4, Average: +7 JFK: +10, +8, +4 Average: +7 Total departures NYC: +24 EWR: +27 LGA: +21 JFK: +22 Newark and NYC should be exceeding +40 for the stretch by the time Sunday is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 73 and Sunny. Picture perfect weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 79.6 here at 10:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 78/70 feeling like 81. Rising quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 the winds have veered from east to south-southeast the past hour or two, and right on target low clouds have developed on the south shore of LI. Amazing to see the contrast, yesterday's southeast winds brought a marine layer tothe entire NJ coast and today they are perfectly clear (thus far) thanks to a slight veering in the wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 84.3F in Richmond Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 So far for this warm period in the NYC major stations: NYC: +9 (24th), +10 (25th), +5 (26th) Average: +8 EWR: +12, +9, +6 Average: +9 LGA: +8, +8, +4, Average: +7 JFK: +10, +8, +4 Average: +7 Total departures NYC: +24 EWR: +27 LGA: +21 JFK: +22 Newark and NYC should be exceeding +40 for the stretch by the time Sunday is over. Piling up a +40 or even a +50 over a week + is not that impressive. Yes it's a nice warm spell but the vast majority of the area is not seeing any huge spikes in departures. It's like having a month be +3 or +4 but the departure was created by every day being either +3 or +4 with no heatwaves to be seen. A bunch of +8s is good warm stretch but really low to mid 80s for the majority of the area at the end of May is quite common actually. We just happen to have a bunch of these days back to back adding to the positive departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Piling up a +40 or even a +50 over a week + is not that impressive. Yes it's a nice warm spell but the vast majority of the area is not seeing any huge spikes in departures. It's like having a month be +3 or +4 but the departure was created by every day being either +3 or +4 with no heatwaves to be seen. A bunch of +8s is good warm stretch but really low to mid 80s for the majority of the area at the end of May is quite common actually. We just happen to have a bunch of these days back to back adding to the positive departure. Yea this warm spell that were having is above average but really isn't all that impressive....to me a warm spell would be 90 degree temps widespread to the coast and lasting for 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Piling up a +40 or even a +50 over a week + is not that impressive. Yes it's a nice warm spell but the vast majority of the area is not seeing any huge spikes in departures. It's like having a month be +3 or +4 but the departure was created by every day being either +3 or +4 with no heatwaves to be seen. A bunch of +8s is good warm stretch but really low to mid 80s for the majority of the area at the end of May is quite common actually. We just happen to have a bunch of these days back to back adding to the positive departure. Well I think its pretty impressive. My temp departure for May was -2.6 at the start of this week, now I'm up to +0.1, and will probably finish May +1 to +2 based upon our likely temps through Tuesday. That's a significant turnaround in 7 days time -- a well below normal May to slightly above average. It'd be akin to having a 5-7 day stretch in mid January with highs of 25-30F and lows around 10F for suburbia. No - not record breaking - but nevertheless an anomalously cold period of weather. I went swimming yesterday for the first time and each of the next 5 days will feature swimming weather. I can count on my one hand the number of years I've gone swimming more than once in the month of May. It's not often that you get a whole week of temperatures 80F+ at any point in May. In fact I recall some years struggling to get 1-2 days in the pool before June 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Well I think its pretty impressive. My temp departure for May was -2.6 at the start of this week, now I'm up to +0.1, and will probably finish May +1 to +2 based upon our likely temps through Tuesday. That's a significant turnaround in 7 days time -- a well below normal May to slightly above average. It'd be akin to having a 5-7 day stretch in mid January with highs of 25-30F and lows around 10F for suburbia. No - not record breaking - but nevertheless an anomalously cold period of weather. I went swimming yesterday for the first time and each of the next 5 days will feature swimming weather. I can count on my one hand the number of years I've gone swimming more than once in the month of May. It's not often that you get a whole week of temperatures 80F+ at any point in May. In fact I recall some years struggling to get 1-2 days in the pool before June 15th. Heard a report yesterday that NJ beaches and NYC/LI beaches have had their lowest attendance in 25 years so far, because of the colder weather. Every single person in the general public is complaining about how terrible and cold this spring has been. Thats all I hear on news, sports shows and from the general public. Of course, we know the real numbers and we know its average to above average. But regardless, this spring has not been a warm and nice spring. We had 1 nice week a couple weeks ago and now this, at the end of May. Im interested to see the + or - departures from March 20th, for only HIGH temperatures. The numbers we use are being skewed by the higher low temps, due to clouds, uhe and wind directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The fog has rolled in here again at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 second day in a row that we are barely avoiding a southeast wind here. 83 now as of 12pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 i dont even bother going to the beach in may/early june. I cant tell you how many times i have driven from mid-island where it was 85 and sunny, and as i got to the barrier islands it is foggy and 70. Wait until mid-June, that is when real summer begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 All the blocking with higher surface pressures to our northeast has kept a dominant onshore flow in place this May. Last May we had the reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 i dont even bother going to the beach in may/early june. I cant tell you how many times i have driven from mid-island where it was 85 and sunny, and as i got to the barrier islands it is foggy and 70. Wait until mid-June, that is when real summer begins Wednesday was beautiful all the way down to the shore with west winds keeping the seabreeze and any marine layer at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Heard a report yesterday that NJ beaches and NYC/LI beaches have had their lowest attendance in 25 years so far, because of the colder weather. Every single person in the general public is complaining about how terrible and cold this spring has been. Thats all I hear on news, sports shows and from the general public. Of course, we know the real numbers and we know its average to above average. But regardless, this spring has not been a warm and nice spring. We had 1 nice week a couple weeks ago and now this, at the end of May. Im interested to see the + or - departures from March 20th, for only HIGH temperatures. The numbers we use are being skewed by the higher low temps, due to clouds, uhe and wind directions. Yeah no doubt it's been a horrendous spring cloud cover wise and very chilly at the beaches. I have a friend who's an avid beach volleyball player, and he told me this spring has been the worst BY FAR at Long Branch (he's been playing for 10+ years). Either too cold, too windy, or raining this spring. In contrast to last spring, which he said was the best spring ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 83/73 and sultry as hell here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 84/66 with south winds. Absolutely gorgeous. I love summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 82/70 in da park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I read this morning ocean temps in NJ are running about 10 degrees above normal and are already upper 60s/low 70s so I don't think the beaches will have any problems packin em in going forward Yeah no doubt it's been a horrendous spring cloud cover wise and very chilly at the beaches. I have a friend who's an avid beach volleyball player, and he told me this spring has been the worst BY FAR at Long Branch (he's been playing for 10+ years). Either too cold, too windy, or raining this spring. In contrast to last spring, which he said was the best spring ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I read this morning ocean temps in NJ are running about 10 degrees above normal and are already upper 60s/low 70s so I don't think the beaches will have any problems packin em in going forward Makes sense. The effects of the sea breeze were rather muted yesterday as we stayed in the mid 70s here in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 84/66 with south winds. Absolutely gorgeous. I love summer. Amazing day and the warmest of the week for the NJ shore. Belmar's at 84F on a brisk SE wind right now! 85/72 about 10 miles inland here in Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 who else needed the A/C today? 84 - hot, hazy, and summery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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