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May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion


Snowlover11

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67 here in Port Jeff Village up on LI's North Shore. Low clouds been rolling in past hour after some clear skies and warm temps just over an hour ago. I saw the trouble when I left work in Islip at 4pm, and I saw an engorged fog bank rolling in to the south. All Spring a strong southern component has been decisive and wonder if this is corroborating the calls for an east coast hurricane strike this season based upon high pressure anomalies to our east and low pressure ones to our west

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looks like you learned the mid level flow orientation lesson today.

we did get a nice light show out of it though, which I didn't expect.

Eh, if it didn't get so clouded over by me it would have been a really nice light show with the storm tops visible. Still, I did spot a couple of CGs.

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I wish I didn't live on Long Island because then I wouldn't be missing out on all the fun. Elevated convention is best for LI. I wish tomorrow that a sea breeze could develop that would help spark storms on the coast but that won't happen. I guess the coast will have to wait until Wednesday a decent shot for thunderstorms with the cold front and only shot for awhile and the cold front itself is not definate where things could go wrong where my location could be left with either nothing or just general boring rain shower.

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looks like you learned the mid level flow orientation lesson today.

we did get a nice light show out of it though, which I didn't expect.

When that came through I was already down here by AC. Was talking to someone in West Milford and they had quite the storm come through up there. Looks like the 6Z NAM handled this the best.

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I never had anything here except, yes, more marine layer crap. T-storms and any other sensible weather knows what's boss the second it hits SE winds anywhere near the shore this (or any) time of year.

Tomorrow will not be the SE winds because the winds will be due South but the ridge will block the storms from coming to the storms where it sucks living on the coast. Marine air is the emeny when it comes to storms and SE winds and even worse wind direction is due East winds because that is the chilly wind direction and that will more likely weaken any thunderstorms that come to coast and bring just those general rain showers. Now the blocking ridge is what the coast is going to tell with this weekend keeping the storms tracking away from the coast from SW to NE and moving NW of NYC and LI.

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Today was another bust on the "torch." Only made it to 77.9F here in Southern Westchester....Central Park also had a high of 78F, and places on LI were even cooler with JFK having a high of 72F and Islip making it to 74F. Mid 70s just isn't impressive in late May, sorry. Starting Sunday, we've had highs here of: 59.0F, 62.4F, 78.6F, 82.9F, and 77.9F....it's been an enjoyable late spring week but calls for big feat have failed. Next week looks to be hotter but not as warm as the models originally showed; the 12z ECM really backed off, as just a few runs ago it had 22C 850s in here; now we're dealing with a warm but mundane 16C 850mb temperature for the hottest days.

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Today was another bust on the "torch." Only made it to 77.9F here in Southern Westchester....Central Park also had a high of 78F, and places on LI were even cooler with JFK having a high of 72F and Islip making it to 74F. Mid 70s just isn't impressive in late May, sorry. Starting Sunday, we've had highs here of: 59.0F, 62.4F, 78.6F, 82.9F, and 77.9F....it's been an enjoyable late spring week but calls for big feat have failed. Next week looks to be hotter but not as warm as the models originally showed; the 12z ECM really backed off, as just a few runs ago it had 22C 850s in here; now we're dealing with a warm but mundane 16C 850mb temperature for the hottest days.

Wind direction screwed you guys. Most of Philly metro was 1-2 degrees on either side of 90.

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Wind direction screwed you guys. Most of Philly metro was 1-2 degrees on either side of 90.

Yup, we had a stiff sea breeze from the south all day, which allowed dewpoints to reach 70F but held temperatures below their potential. There was also a lot of fog and low clouds in the morning hours here in Westchester, doubtless from the marine layer. NWS forecast of 83F from last night was too warm, with the highs in the upper 70s around here. They have been too warm every day since Sunday except for Wednesday, the one day where NW flow really helped us warm. The whole week has been pretty cloudy here...Sunday was dreary and cold, Monday also had rain showers and thick overcast from the warm front, Tuesday had morning clouds and fog, today had a lot of fog/haze earlier on. It's just hard to warm that much when 850s are like 12C and it's rainy or overcast, especially in May with the maritime influence.

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Yup, we had a stiff sea breeze from the south all day, which allowed dewpoints to reach 70F but held temperatures below their potential. There was also a lot of fog and low clouds in the morning hours here in Westchester, doubtless from the marine layer. NWS forecast of 83F from last night was too warm, with the highs in the upper 70s around here. They have been too warm every day since Sunday except for Wednesday, the one day where NW flow really helped us warm. The whole week has been pretty cloudy here...Sunday was dreary and cold, Monday also had rain showers and thick overcast from the warm front, Tuesday had morning clouds and fog, today had a lot of fog/haze earlier on. It's just hard to warm that much when 850s are like 12C and it's rainy or overcast, especially in May with the maritime influence.

SE is a bad wind direction for thunderstorms and really warm weather but I always thought East winds are the worse. On Long Island the Highs range from 70-76 F today with mainly clouds and strong marine influence but tomorrow I think the marine layer will not be as strong and will be at least a few degrees warmer tomorrow with less clouds and more south oppose to the nasty SE wind which will warm most of LI well into the 70's and at least 80 F for NYC if not warmer. For warm spots like Newark will get in the 80-85 F range. I think Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest and areas like Newark and other warm spots in Metro NJ have the shot of 90 F. Where for the city I will go with mid 80's and for LI still think onshore wind will keep in mostly in 70's to near 80 F and perhaps lower 80's on the north shore.

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SE is a bad wind direction for thunderstorms and really warm weather but I always thought East winds are the worse. On Long Island the Highs range from 70-76 F today with mainly clouds and strong marine influence but tomorrow I think the marine layer will not be as strong and will be at least a few degrees warmer tomorrow with less clouds and more south oppose to the nasty SE wind which will warm most of LI well into the 70's and at least 80 F for NYC if not warmer. For warm spots like Newark will get in the 80-85 F range. I think Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest and areas like Newark and other warm spots in Metro NJ have the shot of 90 F. Where for the city I will go with mid 80's and for LI still think onshore wind will keep in mostly in 70's to near 80 F and perhaps lower 80's on the north shore.

As I wrote in the other thread about early June, I'm losing confidence in big heat next week...I agree with the numbers you toss out, whereas two to three days ago I was thinking mid 90s for the suburbs and 95-100 for NYC and EWR. Not seeing that anymore with 850s showing up around 16C and the wind direction being more W as opposed to WNW or NW, which is better for downsloping and keeping the seabreeze at bay. Just as all of them have this spring, next week's warm spell will probably be relatively pedestrian for the last days of May with one or two moderately hot days and then a major cooldown with highs in the 60s to low 70s by the end of the week. 850s are only like +4C for a couple days after the cold front, so we're likely not to warm to average highs. Should be pleasant though with low dewpoints and cool nights.

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