Weathergun Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: Looks like some big supercell structures over PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Does Theta Advection do anything to help our cause for some storms? If so, its really increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Does Theta Advection do anything to help our cause for some storms? If so, its really increasing. Theta E has a direct correlation to the instability, but not necessarily associated with the lifting mechanism itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Regarding the severe threat next week, I know it's early in the game, but I'm actually pretty impressed with the signal, and I'm not excited too often for T-storm threats in the Northeast. However, here's a map Nate (zucker) posted last night of an infamous outbreak in the NE: Note the deep low tracking through southern Quebec and the associated pressure falls. Below is the D7 12Z GFS valid Wednesday afternoon: You have a fairly similar set-up -- deep low to the north of Maine and trailing strong cold front. Looks like an intense thermal gradient as well, 850s of +5 to 10c behind the front with high temps in the 60s/70s. We'll probably be soupy and around 90/70 mid next week. Again, it's just somehting to monitor at this stage, but what we see progged for mid next week is certainly favorable for strong convection in the Northeast. Sfc lows of 1004-1008mb or stronger coupled with the antecedent airmass having 65-70F TD's and 85-90 ambient temps are among the signals you'd like to see. This low is well under 1000mb, quite powerful for the beginning of June, but we'll see if that remains consistent. Also note the position of the upper ridge and wind flow pattern -- marine layer should not be a major factor atm w/ this threat as SWLY winds are present. That is good news I hope the trend keeps it that way and nothing goes wrong that day because one worry could be the cape not be broken like what happen on Tuesday that why most of the area got screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 ok so now I'm going to get very dissapointed if we end up with nothing over north Jersey, looks like a possible supercell. I don't expect that, but it would be nice to get anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Theta E has a direct correlation to the instability, but not necessarily associated with the lifting mechanism itself. Jay does the amount of cape really dictate how severe storms that develop are in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Jay does the amount of cape really dictate how severe storms that develop are in the area? Cape indicates the convective available potential energy and is a function of the instability of the atmosphere. The severity of the storms can depend on a number of things including the degree of shear (for updraft organization), the amount of moisture, the type of cape (surface, mixed layer, elevated), and the amout of forcing/ascent. So I guess the answer would be no--it's not a direct tool to determine the severity of storms that develop. In fact, you can have CAPE over 6000 and have a thermo cap--and have not one single storm develop at all. Convection is really an incredibly fragile process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 ok so now I'm going to get very dissapointed if we end up with nothing over north Jersey, looks like a possible supercell. I don't expect that, but it would be nice to get anything at this point. The next couple days is the ultimate tease scenario, intense convection firing all around me and dying out once it reaches the NJ border. I'm not getting my hopes up, especially with strong ridging and a surface southerly wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Cape indicates the convective available potential energy and is a function of the instability of the atmosphere. The severity of the storms can depend on a number of things including the degree of shear (for updraft organization), the amount of moisture, the type of cape (surface, mixed layer, elevated), and the amout of forcing/ascent. So I guess the answer would be no--it's not a direct tool to determine the severity of storms that develop. In fact, you can have CAPE over 6000 and have a thermo cap--and have not one single storm develop at all. Convection is really an incredibly fragile process. Especially in this area of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 88 here. +14 departure. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 88 here. +14 departure. Awesome! Was just about to post, that low level boundary is situated right over KEWR. To the west we've got temps near 90F this afternoon -- KSMQ: 88F, KTTN: 88F, KPHL: 88F. Caldwell and Teterboro are in the low-mid 80s. 85.1/71 right now in Monmouth County. To my east there's 60s on the immediate coast. Great summer day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The next couple days is the ultimate tease scenario, intense convection firing all around me and dying out once it reaches the NJ border. I'm not getting my hopes up, especially with strong ridging and a surface southerly wind. I'm not expecting much to reach the NYC area until Wed. Most of this of will stay well N&W of NYC, because of the ridging aloft and no triggers close enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 67 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Cape indicates the convective available potential energy and is a function of the instability of the atmosphere. The severity of the storms can depend on a number of things including the degree of shear (for updraft organization), the amount of moisture, the type of cape (surface, mixed layer, elevated), and the amout of forcing/ascent. So I guess the answer would be no--it's not a direct tool to determine the severity of storms that develop. In fact, you can have CAPE over 6000 and have a thermo cap--and have not one single storm develop at all. Convection is really an incredibly fragile process. Thanks earthlight been hearing a lot about it lately and wanted to really find out what kind of correlation to the development of severe storms it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Was just about to post, that low level boundary is situated right over KEWR. To the west we've got temps near 90F this afternoon -- KSMQ: 88F, KTTN: 88F, KPHL: 88F. Caldwell and Teterboro are in the low-mid 80s. 85.1/71 right now in Monmouth County. To my east there's 60s on the immediate coast. Great summer day. It's good being on the warm side of the boundary, isn't it? Tomorrow is going to be another warm one, but I am really excited for next week. Should be awesome with 90s and them a very nice synoptic setup for organized convection bring advertised later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 so tantalizing, 89...one more degree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wicked marine layer in the city right now. 72F in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 How DARE this marine layer. Lol well at least it feels very warm outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 TTN and PHL are at 90F at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Some decent supercells now over PA, especially the one that just crossed over from MD, tornado warned now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Go away marine layer!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 This weather stinks. 68 and really humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 This weather stinks. 68 and really humid. Yea, in the city it feels like those tropical rain forest exhibits at the zoo. It's about 73 here, and the fog has lifted significantly. Sun is out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 earhtlight and isotherm need their own subforum, they are the only warm ones here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 earhtlight and isotherm need their own subforum, they are the only warm ones here today. The sun and the marine layer have been battling all day in the city. It's not bad out, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 No marine layer in da bronx, still sunny and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 earhtlight and isotherm need their own subforum, they are the only warm ones here today. only the immediate shore of new jersey is cool, the rest of the state is very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The marine air is strong here with 68 F and cloudy and after a high of 76 F. Will the marine layer be strong again tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 76 after a high of 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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