Stormlover74 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Upton has taken any mention of storms out of the forecast...its now dry and 80s for the next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Upton has taken any mention of storms out of the forecast...its now dry and 80s for the next 7 days Fantastic news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The SREF's give western areas rain on Saturday for a time. I also think we see some thunderstorms over NJ later today, although most of the action stays well to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Upton has taken any mention of storms out of the forecast...its now dry and 80s for the next 7 days Mt. Holly disagrees, they have 20% and 30% pops through saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 For NW NJ yes but not really for Middlesex or the shore areas. My gut tells me we stay dry through the weekend, at least from NE NJ on north and eastward. Mt. Holly disagrees, they have 20% and 30% pops through saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 For NW NJ yes but not really for Middlesex or the shore areas. My gut tells me we stay dry through the weekend, at least from NE NJ on north and eastward. Going down to my shore house outside of AC tonight through Tuesday where there is a much better chance of staying completely dry so I won't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I know the best forcing stays well to our west, but look how much CAPE has increased over the past 3 hours. 2000 J/KG just to the SW of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Prime example today it seems of good shear profiles, decent lapse rates and very good instability, but no trigger. We can never seem to get everything together in one basket. Edit : I wonder if we can get some convection to fire off the sea breeze later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 crazy marine layer right now on the coast. mid 80s the entire way down the garden state, long branch socked in with clouds that are streaming south to north along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 It's beautiful here, although you can feel the difference in the humidity. 78/64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 70/65 here in southern queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Fog/Haze 71.3/66 Feels very muggy out, sun slowly winning the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 76/67 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 SPC is likely going to issue a tornado watch over Central PA and Upstate NY soon: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0979.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261555Z - 261730Z STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF PA AND NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IT APPEARS VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SOON CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS AND WITH TIME A MATURING CU FIELD THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE NOTED GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 18Z. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Very noticeable still. 60s to mid 70s along the coast, mid 80s just inland. crazy marine layer right now on the coast. mid 80s the entire way down the garden state, long branch socked in with clouds that are streaming south to north along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 82 here, back home now. still climbing at a pretty good pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 the cape can increase all it wants, but this area of subsidence will not allowe any storms to pop: the black area by NY, PA , NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Sun is winning out over the marine layer in the city. Muggy but very pleasant out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Upton has taken any mention of storms out of the forecast...its now dry and 80s for the next 7 days This is great news.I don't want it to rain because i'm playing baseball on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 This is great news.I don't want it to rain because i'm playing baseball on Saturday. I would like to see some storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Just wow, CAPE is at 4500 J/KGE southwest of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Just wow, CAPE is at 4500 J/KGE southwest of Philly. I hope when the cold front comes in next week and ends the warm strech weather and I hope there is a shot of thunderstorms and no dry cold fronts. I can't stand when there is dry cold fronts and then behind long stretch of dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I would like to see some storms though. how many times you gonna say this? lol 80 F right now..Beautiful sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The severe paramaters are so intense right now, especially over sothern PA. I think there is hope that we could get lucky and get initiation from outflow boundries. None of the high res models have anything over PA until after dinner time. We shall see. This wouldn't be the first time we got some suprise severe weather. NJ and upstate have the best shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 how many times you gonna say this? lol 80 F right now..Beautiful sun 72/67....hows this Saranac Lake was 46 this morning and they just had a big severe storm with 70+ wind and 3 inch hail....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Visible satalite imagery shows a distinct narrow line of cumulus building over NE PA which will probably miss most of us to the north, except mabye Sussex and Orange counties. Another area of cumulus is building to the southwest of Philly. Keeing my fingers crossed. It's showing up on infrared now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado Watch incoming.....looks like it doesn't include anyone from NY metro at first glance 724 WWUS30 KWNS 261814 SAW2 SPC AWW 261814 WW 382 TORNADO NY PA 261820Z - 270200Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NW GFL/GLENS FALLS NY/ - 20S BGM/BINGHAMTON NY/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /62NNW ALB - 31WSW HNK/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. LAT...LON 43727248 41907433 41907762 43727588 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Regarding the severe threat next week, I know it's early in the game, but I'm actually pretty impressed with the signal, and I'm not excited too often for T-storm threats in the Northeast. However, here's a map Nate (zucker) posted last night of an infamous outbreak in the NE: Note the deep low tracking through southern Quebec and the associated pressure falls. Below is the D7 12Z GFS valid Wednesday afternoon: You have a fairly similar set-up -- deep low to the north of Maine and trailing strong cold front. Looks like an intense thermal gradient as well, 850s of +5 to 10c behind the front with high temps in the 60s/70s. We'll probably be soupy and around 90/70 mid next week. Again, it's just somehting to monitor at this stage, but what we see progged for mid next week is certainly favorable for strong convection in the Northeast. Sfc lows of 1004-1008mb or stronger coupled with the antecedent airmass having 65-70F TD's and 85-90 ambient temps are among the signals you'd like to see. This low is well under 1000mb, quite powerful for the beginning of June, but we'll see if that remains consistent. Also note the position of the upper ridge and wind flow pattern -- marine layer should not be a major factor atm w/ this threat as SWLY winds are present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 There is very little chance for any convection in the area today--and by very little I mean virtually none save for a widely isolated storm along a magical seabreeze boundary that has enough convergence to pop an updraft. The mid level height field is awful for getting convection here from the west--the heights are rising tonight as the southeast ridge flex's. Nice thermodynamics though on display really for the first time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 There is very little chance for any convection in the area today--and by very little I mean virtually none save for a widely isolated storm along a magical seabreeze boundary that has enough convergence to pop an updraft. The mid level height field is awful for getting convection here from the west--the heights are rising tonight as the southeast ridge flex's. Nice thermodynamics though on display really for the first time this year. Agree strongly, I think our threat to watch is mid next week to break the heat spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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