May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion

[Stormlover74]

They tend to come when we don't expect much....anytime it looks like an outbreak it tends to fizzle out

My policy of expect nothing and hope for nothing is working great. Let's just accept the fact we suck at T-storms in this area.

[nzucker]

i think alot of it has to do with the ocean influence and our wind direction. SE wind = bad 90% of the time. SW is the best direction of wind for storms here.

just taking a stab at your question but im not totally sure.

Part of it is the marine layer, the other part is the terrain. Tornadoes don't like hills, mountains, and trees as we have in the Northeast.

You'd still think we'd get more severe than we do with the juice we have in summer. We deal with a lot of 90/70 airmasses that rarely produce. I think a lot of the problem is that the time of year when temperature contrasts are greatest (spring) usually has storms forming over the Central Plains, as in a Colorado Low...the jet dynamics are much more juiced out there when the storm initially forms than later in its evolution. Also, the Appalachian Mountains prevent temperature contrasts in spring from being as great in the Northeast as they are in the Midwest/Plains, so you have less of a gradient to work with.

You can see the type of storm track that produces a severe event for the Northeast...here's the surface map for the Worcester 1953 F4/F5 tornado:

You don't see many situations like this....most storms in June track farther west so we are drier. When storms are likely to track in this location (late April/May), we don't have the juice to fuel severe.

[earthlight]

Another summer of earthlight forcasting busted t-storm chances...meh

Lol, I never really forecast severe weather, it's such a ceap shoot especially in this part of the country. What I do try to keep you guys aware of is the potential for severe weather when it does exist.

[Allsnow]

Lol, I never really forecast severe weather, it's such a ceap shoot especially in this part of the country. What I do try to keep you guys aware of is the potential for severe weather when it does exist.

Im jk with you pal. Its cool that we can joke around. Your going to be a great met one day. Your severe threads are very informing. Its prob best we don't deal with the storms the mid west gets. Last two years imby has been big snow storms and rain storms. I will take that every year.

[Isotherm]

Part of it is the marine layer, the other part is the terrain. Tornadoes don't like hills, mountains, and trees as we have in the Northeast.

You'd still think we'd get more severe than we do with the juice we have in summer. We deal with a lot of 90/70 airmasses that rarely produce. I think a lot of the problem is that the time of year when temperature contrasts are greatest (spring) usually has storms forming over the Central Plains, as in a Colorado Low...the jet dynamics are much more juiced out there when the storm initially forms than later in its evolution. Also, the Appalachian Mountains prevent temperature contrasts in spring from being as great in the Northeast as they are in the Midwest/Plains, so you have less of a gradient to work with.

You can see the type of storm track that produces a severe event for the Northeast...here's the surface map for the Worcester 1953 F4/F5 tornado:

You don't see many situations like this....most storms in June track farther west so we are drier. When storms are likely to track in this location (late April/May), we don't have the juice to fuel severe.

You raise a lot of great points in your post. Part of our problem is the time of year when thermal gradients are most impressive - April/May, we're usually stuck with the marine layer, and have no "juice" as you say to fuel the severe wx. Kinematically/wind shear wise we're in a good position during the spring but thermodynamically we suck. Then by June, we get the instability, sfc heating, thermodynamics, but gone are the powerful cold fronts and deep lows of March, April, May. In the Plains/OH Valley they seem to get the best of both worlds -- they torch (there's that word again) much more frequently and easily than we do in the spring months, in conjunction with cold airmasses dropping swd from Canada. They're in the perfect spot for severe wx -- dry air from the desert SW, cold to the north, and warm/moist air streaming NW from the GOM. As you noted, by the time systems reach the Northeast, those gradients are largely muted, as we're far displaced from the epicenter of ingredients in the mid section of the nation.

I remember some pretty decent outbreaks with warm fronts (often supercell producers), NWLY upper flow events, and sometimes strong cold fronts in the summer months. Ring of fire MCS activity also tends to screw this area, usually either going through the Lakes/OH valley, or Upstate NY and northern new england in the heart of the summer, when we're baking under a 588dm upper ridge.

[Isotherm]

Im jk with you pal. Its cool that we can joke around. Your going to be a great met one day. Your severe threads are very informing. Its prob best we don't deal with the storms the mid west gets. Last two years imby has been big snow storms and rain storms. I will take that every year.

Yeah if somebody handed me a contract trading off T-storms for a 50"+ winter every year, hell I'd take that deal any day of the week.

[RutgersWx92]

They tend to come when we don't expect much....anytime it looks like an outbreak it tends to fizzle out

Yeah this rule seems to hold true quite often around here; the past few years it seems like almost every time we've been put under a moderate risk the event turns out busting.

[Isotherm]

Yeah this rule seems to hold true quite often around here; the past few years it seems like almost every time we've been put under a moderate risk the event turns out busting.

Agree our best events seem to be sneak up from behind, surprise type deals. Forecasting severe wx is so difficult in the Northeast, and it often seems like we have one fly in the ointment that messes it all up. If we have the dynamics, its usually too cloudy, and when we have the sfc instability, the forcing mechanism often isn't strong enough to break the CAP. Tough to get everything to fall into place around these parts, although we are thrown a bone every once in awhile (at about the same frequency as accumulating snowfalls in Seattle).

[Alpha5]

It almost seems like the Northeast should be better at severe weather/tornadoes. We get the heat and high dewpoints for most of the summer, but we rarely see any storms. It just seems like the storm track in the spring is never really in the area.

Being on the wrong side of the apps and close to the water can do that too you.....It's a bit of blessing though, I cant imagine going through what those in the middle of the country have had to endure these past few weeks

[earthlight]

90 tomorrow over West-Central NJ and mid to upper 80's into the Northern part of the state!

[Thunderdude]

I hope it is not going one of those summer's where it is going to be dry cold fronts and get screwed most of the time with thunderstorm activity whether it is the marine air or cap not be broken. One positive note that I am glad this area is free from destructive tornadoes like the Midwest has been getting a beaten from. Once in while I would love to see a nice thunderstorm producing strong gust winds with hail and lots of thunder and lightning. The setup needs to perfect to get severe weather in this part of the country. I hope this summer is not all dry cold fronts. To be honest I could care less about how hot gets next week I would like to know when is the next threat for thunderstorms in general let own severe weather for the entire area?

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah if somebody handed me a contract trading off T-storms for a 50"+ winter every year, hell I'd take that deal any day of the week.

Agreed, the tracking of big snow storms day after day on the models and their sheer longevity and coverage makes them much better weather events than severe weather.

[Thunderdude]

Agreed, the tracking of big snow storms day after day on the models and their sheer longevity and coverage makes them much better weather events than severe weather.

As much I like big snowstorms in the winter I would never trade off with having no thunderstorms because I maybe one of those few weather weenies that I like thunderstorms the most out of weather events. I would like a big snowstorms once every winter too and they are most fun tracking from the models believe me but it is not winter right now and right now the mode is thunderstorms because it practically heading towards summer right now. I still like to know from someone when is the next thunderstorm chance for the entire area based on the models?

[6zNam]

I enjoy thunderstorms because of their lightning. I could care less about hail wind etc. The Midwest can keep that stuff. Nothing better than a good light show.

[Thunderdude]

I enjoy thunderstorms because of their lightning. I could care less about hail wind etc. The Midwest can keep that stuff. Nothing better than a good light show.

My favorite part of thunderstorms is more of thunder sound. I find the noise entertaining. Sometimes the sound of the thunder could be musical.

[earthlight]

You raise a lot of great points in your post. Part of our problem is the time of year when thermal gradients are most impressive - April/May, we're usually stuck with the marine layer, and have no "juice" as you say to fuel the severe wx. Kinematically/wind shear wise we're in a good position during the spring but thermodynamically we suck. Then by June, we get the instability, sfc heating, thermodynamics, but gone are the powerful cold fronts and deep lows of March, April, May. In the Plains/OH Valley they seem to get the best of both worlds -- they torch (there's that word again) much more frequently and easily than we do in the spring months, in conjunction with cold airmasses dropping swd from Canada. They're in the perfect spot for severe wx -- dry air from the desert SW, cold to the north, and warm/moist air streaming NW from the GOM. As you noted, by the time systems reach the Northeast, those gradients are largely muted, as we're far displaced from the epicenter of ingredients in the mid section of the nation.

I remember some pretty decent outbreaks with warm fronts (often supercell producers), NWLY upper flow events, and sometimes strong cold fronts in the summer months. Ring of fire MCS activity also tends to screw this area, usually either going through the Lakes/OH valley, or Upstate NY and northern new england in the heart of the summer, when we're baking under a 588dm upper ridge.

You are 100% correct about the warm front idea. More often than not, people around the meteorological community (at least that i have spoken to) refer to it as a bit of a myth. But the fact is that a good amount of our tornado warnings do, in fact, come front warm fronts. The low level shear along the warm fronts really help--especially in the summer when we typically have the thermodynamic support but are lacking the kinematics to get supercellular convection going.

We can also get big events from weak cold fronts and sea-breeze type interactions in the summer--July 18 2006 was a good example of this. I remember a few big storms went up on seabreeze boundaries earlier in the day--then the cold front got going and it was an outflow extravaganza with huge updrafts going everywhere and 300+reports in the Northeast alone. Remember, these were the days when SPC filtered the reports themselves, so they were all serious damage reports, too.

[Thunderdude]

You are 100% correct about the warm front idea. More often than not, people around the meteorological community (at least that i have spoken to) refer to it as a bit of a myth. But the fact is that a good amount of our tornado warnings do, in fact, come front warm fronts. The low level shear along the warm fronts really help--especially in the summer when we typically have the thermodynamic support but are lacking the kinematics to get supercellular convection going.

We can also get big events from weak cold fronts and sea-breeze type interactions in the summer--July 18 2006 was a good example of this. I remember a few big storms went up on seabreeze boundaries earlier in the day--then the cold front got going and it was an outflow extravaganza with huge updrafts going everywhere and 300+reports in the Northeast alone. Remember, these were the days when SPC filtered the reports themselves, so they were all serious damage reports, too.

Very point and Summer 2007 had two events where remember the tornadoes in Brooklyn and Staten Island in August and remember July 18th was one in Islip Terrance. 2008 was active severe weather for the area I remember too. I hope this summer really doesn't screw all year with dry cold fronts or just spotty boring rain showers from weakening storms.

[TheTrials]

90 tomorrow over West-Central NJ and mid to upper 80's into the Northern part of the state!

thats more like SW Jersey....lolz

[A-L-E-X]

Looks like it's just for Philly lol.

[TheTrials]

Looks like it's just for Philly lol.

Yeah, by no stretch of the imagination is that the NYC metro forecast area. Temps have cooled a little tomorrow as well I noticed.

[NorEaster27]

Yeah, by no stretch of the imagination is that the NYC metro forecast area. Temps have cooled a little tomorrow as well I noticed.

like I said a few days ago, the wind off the water doesn't support upper 80s for NYC east.

[forkyfork]

Yeah, by no stretch of the imagination is that the NYC metro forecast area. Temps have cooled a little tomorrow as well I noticed.

the 6z nam is the warmest run yet.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_6z/f15.gif

[forkyfork]

like I said a few days ago, the wind off the water doesn't support upper 80s for NYC east.

i don't recall anyone forecasting upper 80s for long island

[IsentropicLift]

6Z NAM brushes western areas with convection tonight

[NorEaster27]

i don't recall anyone forecasting upper 80s for long island

many are for NYC which will probably not work out.

[TheTrials]

i don't recall anyone forecasting upper 80s for long island

Even I haven't claimed that, lol.

[TheTrials]

many are for NYC which will probably not work out.

Its going to be a draw. S and W of the City on the extreme portion of the forecast area in the normally warmer spots will probably verify in the approaching 90 group tomorrow (87/88) although I don't think anyone actually hits 90. NYC, east and north west probably will stay at or under 85 subject to sea breeze which will cut temps back more.

[IsentropicLift]

I'm not sure how accurate it is, but I hit 90 degrees yesterday in my car while in Ramsey.

[tornadojay]

I'm not sure how accurate it is, but I hit 90 degrees yesterday in my car while in Ramsey.

I only had a high of 82 yesterday and I'm about 10 or so miles from Ramsey

[TheTrials]

I'm not sure how accurate it is, but I hit 90 degrees yesterday in my car while in Ramsey.

Not accurate.