earthlight Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Dont kill the messenger but the shortwaves tracking northeast through southeastern Canada and the EML advection means we are bound to experience an organized severe weather event--likely middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Newark the UHI capital of the northeast only reached 82.9 today but somehow earthlight reached 87. I guess that is what you get when you park your car in the sun underneath a dryer vent and read the thermometer after downing a few beers, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Really guys this heat is not impressive. When you can get 90s in April, having low 80s around Memorial Day is pretty much run of the mill weather. It's definitely nice but getting excited about this is like getting excited about a high of 35 in middle December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Average high temp for Newark is 77 today and they are at 82 right now as well. 82-77 = +5 Not according to this, its not... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/CLIEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Not according to this, its not... http://www.srh.noaa....data/OKX/CLIEWR yes, we covered that on the last page, there was a weird climate state on weatherunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hey, TheTrials, just in case you didn't know, you were wrong about Newark's average. It's 74, not 77. Just in case you didn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Really guys this heat is not impressive. When you can get 90s in April, having low 80s around Memorial Day is pretty much run of the mill weather. It's definitely nice but getting excited about this is like getting excited about a high of 35 in middle December. I tend to agree. 80s are nice this time of year, but not impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Newark the UHI capital of the northeast only reached 82.9 today but somehow earthlight reached 87. I guess that is what you get when you park your car in the sun underneath a dryer vent and read the thermometer after downing a few beers, lol 84 at EWR, actually. Here are some mesonet highs... don't trust all of them but there are enough that read above EWR to support John's 87. http://raws.wrh.noaa...rderby=e&type=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 The debate wasn't about whether we personally think each individual day is impressive or not. I thought we'd see about +10 departures every day this week, and so far that's what we've seen yesterday and today. Newark hit 84, a +10 departure. No, not a torch for a single day, but when you compile this 5 day period, Tuesday-Saturday, you're talking a total departure of +40 to +50, which certainly is a torch in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Newark the UHI capital of the northeast only reached 82.9 today but somehow earthlight reached 87. I guess that is what you get when you park your car in the sun underneath a dryer vent and read the thermometer after downing a few beers, lol Newark hit 84 on a S/SE wind all day, basically sitting right on the water. It's not that difficult to see 2-3 degrees higher in a much more inland, ocean protected area. Many locations topped 85F today in NJ. That corridor from SE Bergen County southwestward through Union and Middlesex is often the hottest part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 84 at EWR, actually. Here are some mesonet highs... don't trust all of them but there are enough that read above EWR to support John's 87. http://raws.wrh.noaa...rderby=e&type=0 3 PM (19) May 25 82.9 (28.3)57.9 (14.4)29.91 (1012)S 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 The debate wasn't about whether we personally think each individual day is impressive or not. I thought we'd see about +10 departures every day this week, and so far that's what we've seen yesterday and today. Newark hit 84, a +10 departure. No, not a torch for a single day, but when you compile this 5 day period, Tuesday-Saturday, you're talking a total departure of +40 to +50, which certainly is a torch in my mind. What it comes down to is the variance of the definition of the word "torch". My specific post was that "ill bet my account the usual hot locations get near 90 next week" (posted last week). with +10 departures on two straight days and several days of 80+ expected, with 90s for two days next week, I have no complaints. My account is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It is according the EC, granted not a huge dive but it was a big jump from its 12z run i think its comical that in your defense of a -NAO and troughiness period coming up, you show us a +NAO graph to back it up..wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Newark hit 84 on a S/SE wind all day, basically sitting right on the water. It's not that difficult to see 2-3 degrees higher in a much more inland, ocean protected area. Many locations topped 85F today in NJ. That corridor from SE Bergen County southwestward through Union and Middlesex is often the hottest part of the state. Yea but only Newark and other locales in the usual hot spots of Jersey are hitting those highs in the tristate area. Most places are much closer to 80 and spend most daylight hours in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yea but only Newark and other locales in the usual hot spots of Jersey are hitting those highs in the tristate area. Most places are much closer to 80 and spend most daylight hours in the 70s. still looking for the 84 degree observation. The hourly reports show 82.9 as the high temp. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KEWR.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 nam has a small spec of 90's directly over my house in southern bergen county on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 still looking for the 84 degree observation. The hourly reports show 82.9 as the high temp. http://weather.noaa....rrent/KEWR.html http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/CLIEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/CLIEWR Wasn't yesterdays high around the same? Two straight days of +10 departures. NAM for tomorrow has highs over 84 for EWR and points west---and 90 at EWR on Friday..mid 80's again on Saturday with more 90's coming Mon-Tue. Could be five or more straight days of near +10 departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Wasn't yesterdays high around the same? Two straight days of +10 departures. NAM for tomorrow has highs over 84 for EWR and points west---and 90 at EWR on Friday..mid 80's again on Saturday with more 90's coming Mon-Tue. Could be five or more straight days of near +10 departures. Yesterday was 86 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/CF6EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 What it comes down to is the variance of the definition of the word "torch". My specific post was that "ill bet my account the usual hot locations get near 90 next week" (posted last week). with +10 departures on two straight days and several days of 80+ expected, with 90s for two days next week, I have no complaints. My account is safe. Yeah, agree. We'll see what the rest of the week holds but I'm pretty happy with our calls for this warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tuesday looks like the warmest shot we have next week. With 850 mb temps of about 17-18, a fairly good west to west southwest synoptic flow.. and mixing at least up to 850 mb, that would support temps in the upper 80's with full sun. I believe that Newark will have a high temp of somewhere in the 85-88 degree range on Tuesday. well.. at least my Newark call from last Friday did well.. but I probably won't do well with Tuesday being the warmest day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yea but only Newark and other locales in the usual hot spots of Jersey are hitting those highs in the tristate area. Most places are much closer to 80 and spend most daylight hours in the 70s. Check out this mesonet list -- actually a lot of stations in Suffolk County in the mid 80s, save for the immediate coast: http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?rawsflag=290&state=OKX&type=0&orderby=n&day1=25&month1=5&year1=2011&hour1=23&timeobs=12 Even mid 80s up into the Hudson valley and higher elevations of Westchester County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Check out this mesonet list -- actually a lot of stations in Suffolk County in the mid 80s, save for the immediate coast: http://raws.wrh.noaa...1=23&timeobs=12 Even mid 80s up into the Hudson valley and higher elevations of Westchester County! The high was 82.9F here, much warmer than yesterday, although the drier airmass made it feel comfortable. Looks as if Tarrytown had a high of 84.4F. I don't think we were expecting today to be this warm but never doubt the power of NW flow in early summer as compared to a southerly wind. Looks as if a repeat is on tap tomorrow with temperatures in the low-mid 80s for most of the metro area. Not big heat but enjoyably summery weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Since highs were yet again "controversial"... here's today's: NYC 84 LGA 82 JFK 79 TEB 87 (highly questionable) EWR 84 HPN 80 CDW 84 FRG 79 MMU 82 ISP 81 BLM 79 SMQ 84 DXR 80 BDR 79 12N 82 FWN 83 SWF 81 HWV 79 MGJ 82 NEL 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 well.. at least my Newark call from last Friday did well.. but I probably won't do well with Tuesday being the warmest day of the week. Yeah, I think we are both screwed there, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Since highs were yet again "controversial"... here's today's: NYC 84 LGA 82 JFK 79 TEB 87 (highly questionable) EWR 84 HPN 80 CDW 84 FRG 79 MMU 82 ISP 81 BLM 79 SMQ 84 DXR 80 BDR 79 12N 82 FWN 83 SWF 81 HWV 79 MGJ 82 NEL 82 Earthlight or Isotherm hacked that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Another summer of earthlight forcasting busted t-storm chances...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Another summer of earthlight forcasting busted t-storm chances...meh My policy of expect nothing and hope for nothing is working great. Let's just accept the fact we suck at T-storms in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 My policy of expect nothing and hope for nothing is working great. Let's just accept the fact we suck at T-storms in this area. It almost seems like the Northeast should be better at severe weather/tornadoes. We get the heat and high dewpoints for most of the summer, but we rarely see any storms. It just seems like the storm track in the spring is never really in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 It almost seems like the Northeast should be better at severe weather/tornadoes. We get the heat and high dewpoints for most of the summer, but we rarely see any storms. It just seems like the storm track in the spring is never really in the area. i think alot of it has to do with the ocean influence and our wind direction. SE wind = bad 90% of the time. SW is the best direction of wind for storms here. just taking a stab at your question but im not totally sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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