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May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion


Snowlover11

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Wait. 80s in June is wishcasting heat waves?

80's in June is no gurantee on any given day in NY, I don't know about NYC but the highest the average high ever gets at MMU is 84 degrees which doesn't occur until July. It has nothing to do with the date and everything to do with the pattern taking shape. This year, I think we see an average June with some days well above average and a some days below average.

Perhaps you might consider moving back to VA where apparantly its hot and sunny all year long :axe:

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80's in June is no gurantee on any given day in NY, I don't know about NYC but the highest the average high ever gets at MMU is 84 degrees which doesn't occur until July. It has nothing to do with the date and everything to do with the pattern taking shape. This year, I think we see an average June with some days well above average and a some days below average.

Perhaps you might consider moving back to VA where apparantly its hot and sunny all year long :axe:

Seriously bro, you do this to yourself.

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80's in June is no gurantee on any given day in NY, I don't know about NYC but the highest the average high ever gets at MMU is 84 degrees which doesn't occur until July. It has nothing to do with the date and everything to do with the pattern taking shape. This year, I think we see an average June with some days well above average and a some days below average.

Perhaps you might consider moving back to VA where apparantly its hot and sunny all year long :axe:

From what I remember, the highest average high in NYC is 86 or so which occurs in late July. For EWR it's 88.

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From everything I've been reading a neg nao in the summer = scorching heat. Last summer was a neg nao.

I would think it matters if its a west based -nao or an east based -nao.

A met can chime in to correct me, if Im wrong.

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From everything I've been reading a neg nao in the summer = scorching heat. Last summer was a neg nao.

yeah I haven't fully studied that enough to make a legit comment on it. All I said was that the ridge axis looks to be shifting west over time, and the end result will be a trough somewhere to its east.

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From everything I've been reading a neg nao in the summer = scorching heat. Last summer was a neg nao.

A lot depends on ENSO state too, as 2009 was -NAO but b/c of the oncoming Nino, cool summer. 2010 was -NAO but with an oncoming Nina.

Here's temp composites I posted in my summer outlook for -NAO vs +NAO summers. Note the tendency for heat from the Plains to the mid atlantic and coastal Northeast for -NAO years.

2upg5tk.jpg

+NAO composite:

2s7uiog.png

I think 2008's a good fit overall for this summer...

33xhp20.png

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A lot depends on ENSO state too, as 2009 was -NAO but b/c of the oncoming Nino, cool summer. 2010 was -NAO but with an oncoming Nina.

Here's temp composites I posted in my winter outlook for -NAO vs +NAO summers. Note the tendency for heat from the Plains to the mid atlantic and coastal Northeast for -NAO years.

2upg5tk.jpg

+NAO composite:

2s7uiog.png

I think 2008's a good fit overall for this summer...

33xhp20.png

Also keep in mind some of those cool -NAO summers can be taken out due to a -AMO being present (i.e. the early/mid 80s years mainly). With the continued warm Atlantic this summer, temp departures should be warmer than that -NAO composite in the Northeast.

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so weird, on the first page, it has under alamanac 77

regardless, beautiful day with no humidity, would take this every day of the summer and twice on july 4.

Yea I saw that too, I think on that page it is Wunderground's own calculation of data since 1995.

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Nice day and near 80 F even for Long Island with dewpoints in the 50's can't beat that going outside but one question when the next threat for thunderstorms for the area since the midwest is getting the beating with the severe weather and tornadoes? I hope next week when the cold front comes and breaks the warmth and possible heat I hope the cold front doesn't come in dry. I hate dry cold fronts.

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