Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I just read the last page or so of this thread. o_O This is what happens when there's no snowstorms going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Tom said +10 departures...to be fair, today was a +13 departure from average here. NAM has 80+ tomorrow which would be at least +6, same on Thursday, and near 90 on Friday which would be a near +15 departure. Sounds like a decent forecast to me. Especially with the big heat coming next week which we both have been honking on for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Tom said +10 departures...to be fair, today was a +13 departure from average here. NAM has 80+ tomorrow which would be at least +6, same on Thursday, and near 90 on Friday which would be a near +15 departure. Sounds like a decent forecast to me. Especially with the big heat coming next week which we both have been honking on for days now. We are all trying hard to be as accurate as possibe. I am glad we all don't think the same thing, its more fun this way and I don't think anyone is taking anything personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think they're just having fun with him. Some people prefer a dead NYC forum and others prefer a lively, active forum. Without these posts, our region would be dead like so many other regions. NYC and SNE are the most active because of the fun we have. While a few posters don't like it and want more moderation, for some reason, most feel it's entertaining during boring weather times. Don't get me wrong, I don't want a dead forum. I'm the one who was attacked for creating a banter thread in the first place....since we have subforums, I have no problem with regional banter. My issue ids with the grandstanding (fun or not)...the weather side is still a "scientific forum" and the accusations and sensationalism sometimes go a bit too far. In the end, does it matter? Not to me, I'm not going to stop posting or only complain on other forums just because there is some stuff that I may not agree with. That being said...I'm not so sure floodfan takes everything so lightly. He's kinda flown off the handle for being chastised for doing some of the same stuff others are doing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think they're just having fun with him. Some people prefer a dead NYC forum and others prefer a lively, active forum. Without these posts, our region would be dead like so many other regions. NYC and SNE are the most active because of the fun we have. While a few posters don't like it and want more moderation, for some reason, most feel it's entertaining during boring weather times. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is what happens when there's no snowstorms going on. Seriously. I spent my free time today tracking the TORs in the plains with GR2. Those storms are epic. I never thought that some peeps would be more interested in bickering over a temp forecast and not tracking a major svr wx event. But that's just me. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Next day to watch is Friday. Agree with you, this isn't a full week thing. Definitely not a full week thing. Monday was 60-65F, below average and downright dreary up here where we didn't even get into the 60s until like 5pm. 850s are only 10-12C tomorrow which doesn't support 85-90F readings, especially with the lack of westerly downsloping winds. Thursday has slightly warmer 850s but strong S/SE winds and some approaching cloud cover/showers after 18z, which should preclude any temperatures much higher than 80F. Friday should be interesting...850s are around 16C on the 12z GFS ahead of a cold front, but the flow is due south. This should prevent places like JFK, ISP, and HPN from getting into the really warm values. I could see EWR and TEB cracking 85F, but probably not much more. There just isn't any one day this week where everything comes together for big heat. Either there's too much cloud cover, bad wind direction, lower 850s, etc. Just not a strong torch signal in my mind though we'll probably average slightly above normal Monday-Friday, less so Sunday-Friday since that was a -10F departure on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Agreed. I hate you, just kidding, love reading your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 PS. My question got buried before. How did todays Euro look for the weekend? Seemed to be maybe headed towards a drier solution the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Tom said +10 departures...to be fair, today was a +13 departure from average here. NAM has 80+ tomorrow which would be at least +6, same on Thursday, and near 90 on Friday which would be a near +15 departure. Sounds like a decent forecast to me. Especially with the big heat coming next week which we both have been honking on for days now. Monday was more like -5F than +10F...no one even came close to his forecast of 80s. You were one of the warmest areas today...LI and Westchester were much cooler as was much of SW CT. In your own words, you can't just use your own temperatures to verify a region-wide forecast. Average here tomorrow is 75/53...NWS has 79/60...that's like +5, not a torch. I also think coastal locations will really struggle with heat Thursday and Friday as there's a strong sea breeze nearly the whole day. It could be one of those days where you hit 90F in your backyard but Metfan and Alex are in the 60s, with Westchester a middle ground in the 70s somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I hate you, just kidding, love reading your posts. Yeah Isotherm is hands down one of the best posters on here. I'll be the first to admit he knows more meteorology than I do by a good amount. That being said, he and Earthlight have acquired a reputation for their "warm bias." I guess when you live in the Dirty Jerz, it's always hot and stinky. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Got up to 82 here today. If I may make a suggestion... maybe if we stopped using the word "torch" like some do for every warmup big and small there might be less confusion concerning peoples ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Who cares about Newark's temperatures? It's a massive miles-long tarmac surrounded by 12-lane highways. My backyard and official stations like HPN, HPN isn't official. Newark matters because it has a long period of record. Longer than HPN, LaGuardia, Islip, JFK, BDR, etc. NYC is the only CLI site with a longer period of record in NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I just read the last page or so of this thread. o_O You probably wanted to scream like I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 That being said, he and Earthlight have acquired a reputation for their "warm bias." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 HPN isn't official. Newark matters because it has a long period of record. Longer than HPN, LaGuardia, Islip, JFK, BDR, etc. NYC is the only CLI site with a longer period of record in NYC metro. Well, HPN is the station of record for Westchester so I consider it as official as we get here. It's also in a good spot for making a fair generalization as to Westchester's conditions since it's in the middle of the county latitude-wise with an elevation of 400', which is a good compromise between the lowlands of SE Westchester near the LI Sound and the more rugged terrain in the northern areas which approaches 1000' elevation. I find my climate to be slightly warmer than HPN, with the important exception of the 2/25/2010 Snowicane. I don't consider the period of record to be an important characteristic when we're talking about one day's high temperatures. EWR has the reputation of running warm, particularly in the summer when the heat really accumulates from the tarmac, nearby highways, etc. I think that's the most relevant aspect of the station, not the amount of time they've been taking observations. Clearly, Central Park is king with data going back to 1869, a real treasure for the weather enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I guess when you live in the Dirty Jerz, it's always hot and stinky. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Come on dude, you and Isotherm are always touting heat waves, and we know you love hot, humid summers with lots of beach/pool time. Anyway, when is the invitation to the pool coming? Just as I have a cold bias, you have a warm bias. We can all admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Well, HPN is the station of record for Westchester so I consider it as official as we get here. It hasn't been QC'd and published as an official climate station by NCDC since 2001. Sorry. I don't consider the period of record to be an important characteristic when we're talking about one day's high temperatures. EWR has the reputation of running warm, particularly in the summer when the heat really accumulates from the tarmac, nearby highways, etc. I think that's the most relevant aspect of the station, not the amount of time they've been taking observations. Clearly, Central Park is king with data going back to 1869, a real treasure for the weather enthusiast. EWR has always been surrounded by highways and tarmac. Its an airport. Route 1&9 has always been just west of the airport, the Turnpike has been just east of it for almost 60 years. Its a heavily industrialized area and has been for a long long time. The park has its own issues I won't go into here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 i love this thread, disputes over a couple degrees! nam has mid to upper 80's on friday..Next week is looking very hot..Pattern is flipping to summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 It hasn't been QC'd and published as an official climate station by NCDC since 2001. Sorry. EWR has always been surrounded by highways and tarmac. Its an airport. Route 1&9 has always been just west of the airport, the Turnpike has been just east of it for almost 60 years. Its a heavily industrialized area and has been for a long long time. The park has its own issues I won't go into here. But HPN is the closest you can get to official/high quality data for Westchester conditions. You are nitpicking. It's 1000X better than using Wunderground, and I frequently refer to HPN obs when talking about the weather here. I think you would also agree that it's a nice compromise station between the high northern terrain and the southern flatlands of Westchester County, so it's pretty much "average" for the County as a whole. It doesn't represent any one microclimate too heavily but has aspects of all areas in Westchester. It doesn't matter how long it's been surrounded by highways...it still affects the temperatures there, clearly. EWR is almost always the warmest station in NYC metro, and their temperatures are frequently several degrees higher than other people in Central NJ nearby but in slightly less developed areas. I am just pointing out that using EWR to verify a heat wave is akin to using Montauk to reject a heat wave...it's not representative of the average conditions in the metro area. Most people did not approach 86F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Euro? Anyone? Near term weather? Hep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Euro? Anyone? Near term weather? Hep! 12z ECM is warm for the weekend with 850s in the 14-16C range. I don't see any heavy rain but looks like storms could be possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12z ECM is warm for the weekend with 850s in the 14-16C range. I don't see any heavy rain but looks like storms could be possible... Gracias. Hopefully it keeps trending drier with the storms...a few days ago the weekend looked very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah Isotherm is hands down one of the best posters on here. I'll be the first to admit he knows more meteorology than I do by a good amount. That being said, he and Earthlight have acquired a reputation for their "warm bias." I guess when you live in the Dirty Jerz, it's always hot and stinky. Sorry. Thanks for the kind words man, but I also have to laugh at the warm bias comment. This is the first time I remember predicting a warm period in 9+ months. I genuinely believed that this week would be summery, and yes, you are correct that I enjoy warm/humid weather in the summer months. But I try not to let that influence my views on the weather. I'm sure you're the same way. You'd prefer cool wx in the summer, thus maybe your enthusiasm shows through more during cool times, and resistance during heat waves. With that said, the objective meteorology should take the front seat to our desires/wants. I've enjoyed our discussion/debate the past few days on this week's weather...should be interesting to see it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Gracias. Hopefully it keeps trending drier with the storms...a few days ago the weekend looked very wet. 12z GFS shows most of the precip to the north with the stalled cold front....18z GFS is even drier and only has a few raindrops and overcast skies for much of the weekend. Might see some peeks of sun Saturday morning and again on Sunday late AM/early afternoon before convection fires. In any case, it's going to be isolated t-storms, not widespread synoptic rainfall, looking at the current models. 18z has 850s warming quickly by Sunday evening with the 20C contour up to Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Thanks for the kind words man, but I also have to laugh at the warm bias comment. This is the first time I remember predicting a warm period in 9+ months. I genuinely believed that this week would be summery, and yes, you are correct that I enjoy warm/humid weather in the summer months. But I try not to let that influence my views on the weather. I'm sure you're the same way. You'd prefer cool wx in the summer, thus maybe your enthusiasm shows through more during cool times, and resistance during heat waves. With that said, the objective meteorology should take the front seat to our desires/wants. I've enjoyed our discussion/debate the past few days on this week's weather...should be interesting to see it play out. I am sort of split on heat...I don't personally tolerate it well, but I have a big vegetable garden with lots of heirloom tomatoes, eggplants, and peppers...these all thrive in hot temperatures. I have been harvesting a lot of arugula lately but that may come to an end with the heat wave as leafy greens are not the most tolerant of temperatures in the mid-upper 90s as the 12z ECM shows for Tuesday and Wednesday. I do think my tomatoes could set fruit next week if a heat wave occurs as they've already got dozens of blossoms opened up. Starting to see buds on the peppers as well, a great sign in late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 18z GFS warns of a potential backdoor cold front to offset the heat next Tuesday... Total torch after that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Does this picture of of a Joplin before and after photo make anyone sick? It sure made me sick http://twitpic.com/522mfn WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Thank God its May.....this would be painful in the winter Raging SE Ridge, SW cutting through plains, trough out west, +++NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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