May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion

[Isotherm]

A lot of LI wasn't in the 80s...Islip only got up to 78F, Westhampton Beach only got to 69F...so farther out on the Island it wasn't nearly as warm, as expected. You've definitely been exaggerating the extent and intensity of this heat. Everyone certainly wasn't well into the mid 80s considering that several official stations in LI and Westchester only reached 60s and 70s, KNYC only seems to have gotten to 80F and is now down to 79F, Sussex Airport in NNJ looks to have topped out around 79-80F, etc. That doesn't equate to "you are the only location that failed. everybody was well into the mid 80s." Don't know where you're getting this stuff from but this isn't even close to a torch...every day starting with Sunday has been considerably cooler than expected. Where is the 85-90F that Tom promised me? Where were the mid 70s yesterday?

Winds are fairly light and are more SW/W...we tend to do better on a NW wind as it downslopes more off the Catskills, especially in the northern suburbs. 12z ECM shows the potential for a more northwest component to the flow at Day 7/8 which could bring the big heat.

Anyway, the warmest station hitting 86F with most in upper 70s to around 80 doesn't constitute a torch. If the average high in Dobbs Ferry for 5/24 is 75F, then places like Central NJ probably have averages in the upper 70s right now. Pretty much everyone is within 5F or so of their normal high temperatures for late May. Rest of the week looks a bit cooler with the exception of potential warmth Friday.

Central/Eastern LI is irrelevant to this discussion; they require W/NW winds to torch well through the 80s. If you look at the wunderground stations, most of C, NE NJ, NYC, W LI is blanketed in 82-86 degree temps, with the exception of Central Park and the Westchester area. I don't know if you'll ever get to 85+, but most of NJ, and NYC area westward should reach those numbers at least a couple times this week.

[nzucker]

No, you can't utilize your backyard (which seems to be one of the coldest highs anywhere in the tristate) to represent the area. You, Trials and the cool crew busted and will continue to bust hard the rest of the week. The majority of the area was well into the 80s today, save for central/eastern LI and your area NE.

EWR hit 86 so far today, and will likely top 86 at least 2 more times in the next 4 days (Friday 85-90 most places, save LI and immediate coast). Your area is obviously a local microclimate as even SW Ct is near 80F. Bridgeport at 79F last ob.

Who cares about Newark's temperatures? It's a massive miles-long tarmac surrounded by 12-lane highways. My backyard and official stations like HPN, Islip, Central Park, etc are a much better measure of heat than EWR. You said that we would all see 85-90F temperatures, addressing me. I haven't seen these temperatures. So unless we get them repeatedly for the rest of the week, this forecast was incorrect. Also, every day since Sunday has been cooler than what the NWS forecasted...they had mid 60s Sunday, we ended up with 59F; they had low 70s yesterday, it verified as low 60s; they had upper 80s today, and we've verified in the 70s. So how is the "cool crew" busting? If every day ends up cooler than expected for the majority of locales, then how have people not forecasting a torch busted? It seems like we hit the nail on the head, but of course you seem to be so intent on defending a forecast that obviously isn't working out.

As I've pointed out repeatedly, temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is not a "torch" in late May. "Torch" implies way above normal temperatures, and that's not what we're really getting here. Having 2 days of highs in the upper 50s/low 60s, followed by one day in the upper 70s, and then some more days in the 70s, is not a torch at this time of year, in any sense of the word. It's almost summer, guys...it has to be upper 80s-90s to qualify as a torch at this point. Also, today has long been viewed as the warmest day of the week, so considering we didn't match temperature expectations on Sunday/Monday, today ended up just being a slightly warmer than normal spring afternoon, it doesn't seem like your forecast is working.

[IsentropicLift]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning now in Southern Jersey, might be the smallest warned cell I've ever seen.

[nzucker]

Central/Eastern LI is irrelevant to this discussion; they require W/NW winds to torch well through the 80s. If you look at the wunderground stations, most of C, NE NJ, NYC, W LI is blanketed in 82-86 degree temps, with the exception of Central Park and the Westchester area. I don't know if you'll ever get to 85+, but most of NJ, and NYC area westward should reach those numbers at least a couple times this week.

You said everyone in the Metro area should see 85-90F readings for most of the week. On what has long been billed as the warmest day, (though I personally think Friday is a good candidate) Central Park hasn't gotten there, Westchester hasn't gotten there, central LI hasn't gotten there, NNJ hasn't gotten there. That's a large chunk of the metro's real estate that hasn't had the temperatures you forecasted, and additionally Sunday and Monday were both MUCH cooler than expected. So those speaking out against the idea of "torch" were correct. You also said multiple days of 85-90F, and the "hot day" of the week hasn't gotten there for the majority of areas. EWR hitting 86-87F doesn't matter, as that's a notoriously warm station, especially on SW flow, and they're surrounded by cooler readings in other parts of the Metro.

Even Logan11, who lives in Upstate NY at 1000', said it has to be 85F to be a torch at this point in late May. You have to remember that it's expected to be in the 80s here during summer, and we're just 7 days from the start of meteorological summer, so these aren't exactly abnormally warm readings. Central Park's record high today was 93F (1975), yesterday's was 94F (1964), and the day before was 96F (1961). We're like 15F short of records and 5F above average on the warmest day of the week, and you're screaming torch. Doesn't make sense.

[earthlight]

the average high here is 74. we got near 87. it's forecast to be very warm this week and in the 90s next week. how is that not a torch?

using your subtropical elevated subclimate which didn't go past 80 as reasoning that it's not a torch is silly. even tarrytown hit 80.

[TheTrials]

Newark 85 last hour (perhaps that 86 gets corrected back, never know). So, 86 was the high water mark. Not a bad call, one degree short. I think both groups in this thread can claim partial victory today. The cooler group def. had a larger geographical area not really come close to torch, and the warmer group had the normally warmer locations break 85 by a degree. No one however approached 90, and the 88-90 crew didn't verify today. Friday may be a different story. Again, we were drier, and we all needed that.

[nzucker]

the average high here is 74. we got near 87. it's forecast to be very warm this week and in the 90s next week. how is that not a torch?

using your subtropical elevated subclimate which didn't go past 80 as reasoning that it's not a torch is silly. even tarrytown hit 80.

I'm surprised your average high is only 74F given that Weather Channel shows 75F for here, but I think their averages may be short-term and thus a bit on the warmer side. You definitely have a slightly warmer climate than I do, especially in spring when NJ tends to torch a lot more on SW flow that has more of a maritime influence here. I agree, today was a torch for a few isolated areas of NJ...but that's far offset by the fact that most places in NYC metro got stuck in the upper 70s-80F range, that Sunday and Monday were well cooler than expected, and that tomorrow is only supposed to be upper 70s. Having one day where the NYC metro is 80F when the last two days were like -10F departures for highs, especially given that it's late May, just isn't that impressive. I think we're all a bit susceptible to feeling the warmth because of the fact that this spring has had a very low temperature range compared to normal, with few sub-freezing nights and no heat waves.

I'm not using my climate as justification. Central Park average is 73/57 and they're going to top out around 81F, this after being -4F cumulative departure for yesterday and -9F departure for the day before with larger departures in the high temperatures. Most places in LI and Westchester were in the 75-80F range, which is just a few ticks above normal if you use the Weather Channel's more recent average temperatures. Also, we had cloud cover and fog for much of the day in Westchester, so subjectively it didn't feel like a torch. Obviously, you and Tom live in much warmer areas that are more like PHL in terms of climo, so you're going to be faster to claim a torch than someone who lives at 400' in the northern suburbs. But I do think that you guys are focusing too much on EWR and not the whole picture, as well as ignoring the fact that yesterday is part of this week and ended up being much chillier than forecasted.

Isotherm clearly implied 85-90F multiple days for all parts of NYC metro. I live like 7 miles from the Bronx border, nowhere near the Atlantic Ocean/LI Sound, and I don't see any chance of Dobbs Ferry reaching this criteria. I'm not that much of a microclimate. Nor will it be possible for LI, NNJ, and probably not Central Park either to record multiple days of >85F highs. I think the week is going much more the way I envisioned with clouds/showers remaining an obstacle to warmth, two very cool days followed by a few unexceptionally mild ones around 80F...not the 85-90F for days on end that Isotherm claimed.

It looks as if we've reached the high here...sitting at 78.3F with partly cloudy skies after a high of 78.6F. Maybe we can make one more push towards 80F but doubt we get there. Victory! You guys will get your heat next week though, so not to worry, it's coming.

[jasonli18t]

We made it to 83 degrees all the way out here, you can see my location in my sig.

[TheTrials]

No, you can't utilize your backyard (which seems to be one of the coldest highs anywhere in the tristate) to represent the area. You, Trials and the cool crew busted and will continue to bust hard the rest of the week. The majority of the area was well into the 80s today, save for central/eastern LI and your area NE.

EWR hit 86 so far today, and will likely top 86 at least 2 more times in the next 4 days (Friday 85-90 most places, save LI and immediate coast). Your area is obviously a local microclimate as even SW Ct is near 80F. Bridgeport at 79F last ob.

Dude, I pulled your post from a few days ago, you had us into the mid 80's starting Sunday (not even close sunday or monday).

As to today, I was off by a degree (my call was 85), while you were calling for upper 80's, which didn't materialize, as the warmest official station in the nyc metro was 86 at newark. That isn't busting hard, and you didn't bust hard either, we were both off a little either way.

As to the rest of the week, your next chance is Friday, and with a flow more off the water, I wouldn't be jumping up and down.

[nzucker]

We made it to 83 degrees all the way out here, you can see my location in my sig.

ISP only made 78F, are you routinely warmer than them?

[Isotherm]

Who cares about Newark's temperatures? It's a massive miles-long tarmac surrounded by 12-lane highways. My backyard and official stations like HPN, Islip, Central Park, etc are a much better measure of heat than EWR. You said that we would all see 85-90F temperatures, addressing me. I haven't seen these temperatures. So unless we get them repeatedly for the rest of the week, this forecast was incorrect. Also, every day since Sunday has been cooler than what the NWS forecasted...they had mid 60s Sunday, we ended up with 59F; they had low 70s yesterday, it verified as low 60s; they had upper 80s today, and we've verified in the 70s. So how is the "cool crew" busting? If every day ends up cooler than expected for the majority of locales, then how have people not forecasting a torch busted? It seems like we hit the nail on the head, but of course you seem to be so intent on defending a forecast that obviously isn't working out.

As I've pointed out repeatedly, temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s is not a "torch" in late May. "Torch" implies way above normal temperatures, and that's not what we're really getting here. Having 2 days of highs in the upper 50s/low 60s, followed by one day in the upper 70s, and then some more days in the 70s, is not a torch at this time of year, in any sense of the word. It's almost summer, guys...it has to be upper 80s-90s to qualify as a torch at this point. Also, today has long been viewed as the warmest day of the week, so considering we didn't match temperature expectations on Sunday/Monday, today ended up just being a slightly warmer than normal spring afternoon, it doesn't seem like your forecast is working.

You said everyone in the Metro area should see 85-90F readings for most of the week. On what has long been billed as the warmest day, (though I personally think Friday is a good candidate) Central Park hasn't gotten there, Westchester hasn't gotten there, central LI hasn't gotten there, NNJ hasn't gotten there. That's a large chunk of the metro's real estate that hasn't had the temperatures you forecasted, and additionally Sunday and Monday were both MUCH cooler than expected. So those speaking out against the idea of "torch" were correct. You also said multiple days of 85-90F, and the "hot day" of the week hasn't gotten there for the majority of areas. EWR hitting 86-87F doesn't matter, as that's a notoriously warm station, especially on SW flow, and they're surrounded by cooler readings in other parts of the Metro.

Even Logan11, who lives in Upstate NY at 1000', said it has to be 85F to be a torch at this point in late May. You have to remember that it's expected to be in the 80s here during summer, and we're just 7 days from the start of meteorological summer, so these aren't exactly abnormally warm readings. Central Park's record high today was 93F (1975), yesterday's was 94F (1964), and the day before was 96F (1961). We're like 15F short of records and 5F above average on the warmest day of the week, and you're screaming torch. Doesn't make sense.

Late last week, NWS and other sources had high temps progged in the 70s (generally the 74-78 degree range) for this entire week, at a time when John, myself, and a couple others thought we'd be summery with 80s and high humidity. Trials even posted a NAM map a couple days ago indicating no one northeast of Delaware would hit 80F today. Obviously that was way off, as most of NJ fell within the 83-86 range for highs.

NWS now has fcst highs in the low/mid 80s tomorrow, mid 80s Thursday, and upper 80s Friday for most of the area, a huge correction from several days ago, and in line with what we've been saying.

No, today was not an all out torch, but when you add up the temp departures for the next 5 days, with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s, it will certainly verify as a torch for this time of year.

I also believe Friday will be the warmest day this week. Regarding the NWS busting too warm, it depends where you are. For my area, they had low 60s Sunday, verified as low 60s, Monday they had upper 60s, my high was 70, and today they had 80, my actual high was 84.

[ag3]

Late last week, NWS and other sources had high temps progged in the 70s (generally the 74-78 degree range) for this entire week, at a time when John, myself, and a couple others thought we'd be summery with 80s and high humidity. Trials even posted a NAM map a couple days ago indicating no one northeast of Delaware would hit 80F today. Obviously that was way off, as most of NJ fell within the 83-86 range for highs.

NWS now has fcst highs in the low/mid 80s tomorrow, mid 80s Thursday, and upper 80s Friday for most of the area, a huge correction from several days ago, and in line with what we've been saying.

No, today was not an all out torch, but when you add up the temp departures for the next 5 days, with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s, it will certainly verify as a torch for this time of year.

I also believe Friday will be the warmest day this week. Regarding the NWS busting too warm, it depends where you are. For my area, they had low 60s Sunday, verified as low 60s, Monday they had upper 60s, my high was 70, and today they had 80, my actual high was 84.

Good job for today but to be fair, Trials quoted a post that you made a few days ago where you said Sunday and yesterday would be 80's also. And that busted by 20 degrees on the cold side.

[TheTrials]

Late last week, NWS and other sources had high temps progged in the 70s (generally the 74-78 degree range) for this entire week, at a time when John, myself, and a couple others thought we'd be summery with 80s and high humidity. Trials even posted a NAM map a couple days ago indicating no one northeast of Delaware would hit 80F today. Obviously that was way off, as most of NJ fell within the 83-86 range for highs.

NWS now has fcst highs in the low/mid 80s tomorrow, mid 80s Thursday, and upper 80s Friday for most of the area, a huge correction from several days ago, and in line with what we've been saying.

No, today was not an all out torch, but when you add up the temp departures for the next 5 days, with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s, it will certainly verify as a torch for this time of year.

I also believe Friday will be the warmest day this week. Regarding the NWS busting too warm, it depends where you are. For my area, they had low 60s Sunday, verified as low 60s, Monday they had upper 60s, my high was 70, and today they had 80, my actual high was 84.

That map was to show the models backing off the 90's which they did, that was not my call, you had my call the other day when we were betting. You called for 80's yesterday, not even close. As I said earlier, both groups are right and wrong. This back and forth is stupid now, everyone can prove their position one way or another. Its just weather, but don't say people busted hard when they didn't especially when you were off by 20+ degrees yesterday and the week isn't over and the 90's may never materialize.

[BxEngine]

Christ.

You can't use nws forecasts from 3 days ago in your argument when you wanted to wait for "one more day of model runs" 2 days ago....that's silly. No one really got it right or wrong.

Can we move on to discussing the upcoming weather...or at least discuss the "bust" without the grandstanding? The dick measuring contest is hurting my eyes.

[TheTrials]

Christ.

You can't use nws forecasts from 3 days ago in your argument when you wanted to wait for "one more day of model runs" 2 days ago....that's silly. No one really got it right or wrong.

Can we move on to discussing the upcoming weather...or at least discuss the "bust" without the grandstanding? The dick measuring contest is hurting my eyes.

This, and agreed.

[Isotherm]

Dude, I pulled your post from a few days ago, you had us into the mid 80's starting Sunday (not even close sunday or monday).

As to today, I was off by a degree (my call was 85), while you were calling for upper 80's, which didn't materialize, as the warmest official station in the nyc metro was 86 at newark. That isn't busting hard, and you didn't bust hard either, we were both off a little either way.

As to the rest of the week, your next chance is Friday, and with a flow more off the water, I wouldn't be jumping up and down.

Ok, so if you're going to pull my post from 5 days ago (which I admit, busted too warm Sunday and yesterday), I'll pull yours from that time saying that this warmth would be a one day affair:

And the heat, as I have been saying, was way too aggressive. 80-85, especially western portions down to southern jersey, but approaching 90 is out and the immediate nyc metro may be stuck right around 80. It's a one day thing too it appears. Beautiful, but not a torch or heatwave by any stretch.

We also have to keep an eye on the convective debris

So with tomorrow, Thursday, Friday, and probably Saturday all being in the 80s, you would bust. No, I guess I shouldn't have said the cool crew busted for this week, let's watch it play out.

[ag3]

Christ.

You can't use nws forecasts from 3 days ago in your argument when you wanted to wait for "one more day of model runs" 2 days ago....that's silly. No one really got it right or wrong.

Can we move on to discussing the upcoming weather...or at least discuss the "bust" without the grandstanding? The dick measuring contest is hurting my eyes.

They're just having a fun competitive conversation. Big deal. Its a weather board full of weather enthusiasts.

Some have a major warm bias and some a cold bias. Makes for fun conversation.

[nzucker]

Good job for today but to be fair, Trials quoted a post that you made a few days ago where you said Sunday and yesterday would be 80's also. And that busted by 20 degrees on the cold side.

"Get ready for some big warmth next week; I think 90F is within reach for much of the area. Overall the next 5-7 days are very summery with high humidity, SWLY flows, temps in the 80s Mon-Thurs and frequent T-storm opportunities. Should be a precursor to the theme of this summer IMO: high humidity, plenty of rain, and warm temps."-Isotherm

My high was 62.4F Monday...what happened to the 80s? Even Central Park only got up to 65F yesterday afternoon, so that's a large mistake.

High of 78.6F today...what happened to the 80s?

And you say that 90F is within reach for most of the area, and you write in another post that 85-90F temps would occur on multiple days. On the warmest day, the warmest station got to 86F. You can't just say that LI and Westchester aren't part of NYC metro...you're excluding huge chunks of real estate to verify a forecast. The problem is that everyone always forecasts for the entire region based on his/her backyard's microclimate; I'm going to lean towards my knowledge of Westchester's climatology to make predictions, and you're going to lean towards Monmouth County's climo. So there's obviously going to be an inherent bias when these discussions occur.

Tom, I personally agree with many of your thoughts about the warm/humid summer with frequent thunderstorms and showers, as we've seen with the muggy weather this past week, and the potential for extreme heat next Tuesday/Wednesday, but I think you were overaggressive on temperatures this week. It doesn't pay to forecast really high temps with cloud cover and southerly winds in late May. NWS also has been a bit on the warm side...they had 64F Sunday (ended up 59F), 73F yesterday (ended up 62F), and 88F lowered to 83F today (ended up 79F). So there's been a lot of people going for a hardcore torch that hasn't happened. We also have to remember that, despite the low variations in temperatures this spring, it's not unusual to hit 80F in late May here. For most people, that's within 5F of average highs for the end of May.

[earthlight]

Man, it's so annoying when you keep quoting your specific locations temperatures which are so much cooler than everywhere else. It drives me crazy.

[pazzo83]

You guys are ridiculous (i.e. OMG it wasn't 88+F you busted!). It's warm and nice out. Enjoy it.

[BxEngine]

They're just having a fun competitive conversation. Big deal. Its a weather board full of weather enthusiasts.

Some have a major warm bias and some a cold bias. Makes for fun conversation.

Sure...but some of the same people pissin in the wind for the last few pages throw a fit when floodfan27 posts within his heavy rain bias.

[pazzo83]

Man, it's so annoying when you keep quoting your specific locations temperatures which are so much cooler than everywhere else. It drives me crazy.

Yea, the PWS in midtown got to 85 today (Central Park is always colder than practically everywhere else in Manhattan on days like this).

[Isotherm]

"Get ready for some big warmth next week; I think 90F is within reach for much of the area. Overall the next 5-7 days are very summery with high humidity, SWLY flows, temps in the 80s Mon-Thurs and frequent T-storm opportunities. Should be a precursor to the theme of this summer IMO: high humidity, plenty of rain, and warm temps."-Isotherm

My high was 62.4F Monday...what happened to the 80s? Even Central Park only got up to 65F yesterday afternoon, so that's a large mistake.

High of 78.6F today...what happened to the 80s?

And you say that 90F is within reach for most of the area, and you write in another post that 85-90F temps would occur on multiple days. On the warmest day, the warmest station got to 86F. You can't just say that LI and Westchester aren't part of NYC metro...you're excluding huge chunks of real estate to verify a forecast. The problem is that everyone always forecasts for the entire region based on his/her backyard's microclimate; I'm going to lean towards my knowledge of Westchester's climatology to make predictions, and you're going to lean towards Monmouth County's climo. So there's obviously going to be an inherent bias when these discussions occur.

Tom, I personally agree with many of your thoughts about the warm/humid summer with frequent thunderstorms and showers, as we've seen with the muggy weather this past week, and the potential for extreme heat next Tuesday/Wednesday, but I think you were overaggressive on temperatures this week. It doesn't pay to forecast really high temps with cloud cover and southerly winds in late May. NWS also has been a bit on the warm side...they had 64F Sunday (ended up 59F), 73F yesterday (ended up 62F), and 88F lowered to 83F today (ended up 79F). So there's been a lot of people going for a hardcore torch that hasn't happened. We also have to remember that, despite the low variations in temperatures this spring, it's not unusual to hit 80F in late May here. For most people, that's within 5F of average highs for the end of May.

Re that post you quoted, the only part that I see busted is Monday being in the 80s. Today was in the 80s for most spots. We have to watch the rest of the week play out, and yes, 90F is still within reach for, let me clarify, most of NJ and NYC. 85-90 could also occur on 2 days this week...for most of NJ and immediate NYC. As in not most of LI or the immediate coast.

[ag3]

Man, it's so annoying when you keep quoting your specific locations temperatures which are so much cooler than everywhere else. It drives me crazy.

The area was generally 80-82 degrees. EWR is a specific location as is Mt. Zucker.

A fair high temp average for the majority today was 80-82.

Gorgeous weather.

[ag3]

Sure...but some of the same people pissin in the wind for the last few pages throw a fit when floodfan27 posts within his heavy rain bias.

I think they're just having fun with him.

Some people prefer a dead NYC forum and others prefer a lively, active forum. Without these posts, our region would be dead like so many other regions. NYC and SNE are the most active because of the fun we have.

While a few posters don't like it and want more moderation, for some reason, most feel it's entertaining during boring weather times.

[jasonli18t]

ISP only made 78F, are you routinely warmer than them?

Yes...Islip is south shore, I live on the north shore, and that makes a big difference on most warm days.

[nzucker]

Man, it's so annoying when you keep quoting your specific locations temperatures which are so much cooler than everywhere else. It drives me crazy.

He specifically addressed me in a post saying that almost all areas should be able to reach these temperatures. I'm not a particularly cold microclimate with regards to spring temperatures...I'm relatively far from Long Island Sound, relatively far west, and only 7-8 miles from the Bronx border. You keep claiming that I am using an unusually cold area to prove my point, but Westchester actually tends to be pretty warm in spring compared to LI and parts of Brooklyn/Staten Island. Also, you two have been constantly referencing EWR hitting 86F and how warm it was in Central NJ, so I'd say the bias goes in both directions. Also, I have repeatedly posted temperatures for Central Park, ISP, HPN, and Sussex. Is that not a thorough representation of a good part of the NYC metro area?

Tom's quote:

Violently disagree. Should be 80+ Monday through Friday; 00z Euro indicated temps Wed-Thurs will be 86-90 for most areas. One day thing? This whole week looks very warm to me, with several days +10 or greater departures.

Monday was a total bust. NWS has upper 70s here tomorrow so I'm not sure where this 86-90F stuff is coming from. I certainly can't see anyone hitting 90F tomorrow with 850s of only around 10C.

[TheTrials]

The area was generally 80-82 degrees. EWR is a specific location as is Mt. Zucker.

A fair high temp average for the majority today was 80-82.

Gorgeous weather.

Yeah, I mean, throw out the two extremes, and you get a beautiful late spring day. Lets see what happens Friday. Winds won't be from the west, that could be a huge fly in the ointment.

[Dark Energy]

I just read the last page or so of this thread. o_O

[TheTrials]

He specifically addressed me in a post saying that almost all areas should be able to reach these temperatures. I'm not a particularly cold microclimate with regards to spring temperatures...I'm relatively far from Long Island Sound, relatively far west, and only 7-8 miles from the Bronx border. You keep claiming that I am using an unusually cold area to prove my point, but Westchester actually tends to be pretty warm in spring compared to LI and parts of Brooklyn/Staten Island. Also, you two have been constantly referencing EWR hitting 86F and how warm it was in Central NJ, so I'd say the bias goes in both directions. Also, I have repeatedly posted temperatures for Central Park, ISP, HPN, and Sussex. Is that not a thorough representation of a good part of the NYC metro area?

Tom's quote:

Violently disagree. Should be 80+ Monday through Friday; 00z Euro indicated temps Wed-Thurs will be 86-90 for most areas. One day thing? This whole week looks very warm to me, with several days +10 or greater departures.

Monday was a total bust. NWS has upper 70s here tomorrow so I'm not sure where this 86-90F stuff is coming from. I certainly can't see anyone hitting 90F tomorrow with 850s of only around 10C.

Next day to watch is Friday. Agree with you, this isn't a full week thing.