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May 21-22 Midwest & Great Lakes Severe Threat


SEMIweather

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I'm not too sure what his user name is. He's a very good friend of mine. kswx maybe?

Ah, that would be me. Shortly before we took shelter I looked outside and the wind had picked up a great deal (I'd estimate 60-70MPH), and I seen a lot of debris in the air. We then went to the basement and took shelter. While down there the lights went out. We then came up and went outside to find some pretty good size tree branches down and that was about it. I was quite surprised since I seen that debris in the air. I guess the NWS in Topeka says an EF-0 came thru southern and eastern Topeka and I am in southeast Topeka. I did get some pictures of the tree branches down but unfortunately did not get any pictures of the funnels and debris. I'm actually disappointed with the NWS and SPC. Only a Severe Thunderstorm watch was in effect, and I and others seen rotation on the radar for about 10 minutes before a tornado warning was issued. Shawnee County sounded the sirens about 3 minutes before a warning was issued. Fortunately this storm did not produce a large tornado and produce any deaths. It's unfortunate what happened in Reading though.

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Don't want to hijack this thread but I have a severe weather/tornadoe phobia post in the off topic section that I would be grateful if anyone had any calming words as tomorrows tornadoe probs really are freaking me out and want to know how afraid I should be.

Excuse me for being a fool and for posting out of turn and out of context/subject matter...I'm just really freaked by the hatcheted area...sorry again for the un-intended hijack.

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DTX's thoughts for today and then tonight/tomorrow

Today:

AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN THE AREA WILL BE UNDER

A REGION OF MODEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND RELATIVELY UNIFORM SWLY FLOW

ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMAS A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE

TRIGGER IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER SE MICHIGAN. A BROAD

30-40KT SSWLY LLJ OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL AID LATE AFTN

DESTABILIZATION AS IT USHERS IN A SECONDARY PUSH OF HIGHER THETA-E

AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE

MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE

ENVIRONMENT OVER SE LOWER MI WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED. GIVEN CONVECTIVE

TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27-29C....DIURNAL HEATING ALONE COULD GET

THINGS GOING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SBCAPE BETWEEN 1000-2000

J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE

OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR

SUPERCELLS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE THE LFC (GFS/NAM

750MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS > 15C) AND A DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING LAYER

WILL PROMOTE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE AS SFC

MOISTURE CONTENT IS MIXED OUT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEED 10C

THROUGH THE LOWEST 1500 FT AGL. CONSEQUENTLY...ENVIRONMENTAL LCLS

WILL BE AROUND 4KFT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THUS...DESPITE CAPE/SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...THINKING IS THAT

WITH THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN

THE AFTN WILL QUICKLY BECOME MODULATED BY EVAPORATION-INDUCED

DOWNDRAFTS RESULTING IN WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WIDESPREAD VERY ROBUST DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF

1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH ARE ACTUALLY SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO THE

PROGGED "UPDRAFT CAPE" VALUES. GIVEN MODERATE CAPE DENSITY AND THE

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES TO BECOME ORGANIZED...HAIL COULD

ALSO BE SEEN AS A POTENTIAL THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND

THE EXPECTED PROPENSITY FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE

DOWNDRAFT-DOMINATED CONVECTION...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS

EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...THOUGH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY

RULED OUT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION

IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY FORCED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY

MODERATE AT THIS TIME. THUS...MAINTAINED THE GOING CHC POPS THROUGH

THE PERIOD.

Tonight/Tomorrow

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW /850MB WINDS UP TO 45KTS/ INTO SW

LOWER MI WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS

THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MESO

SCALE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO LIFT INTO SRN MI...DEPENDENT UPON OVERALL

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TODAY. SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO RANGE

FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES AND A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW

FAIRLY GOOD CAPE DENSITY DURING THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH

INCREASING DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT A RISK OF

SEVERE CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE

MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT /PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND THE POTENTIAL

FOR ECHO TRAINING WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT AS WELL.

DECENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT

FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS

ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY AFTERNOON. DURATION

AND COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE INTO THE

AMOUNT OF RECOVERY ON MONDAY. SO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS

IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND

POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON INSOLATION HOWEVER MAY VERY WELL BE

ABLE TO ACHIEVE MLCAPE VALUES UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. GIVEN

THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THIS MODEST INSTABILITY WOULD BE

ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH BOTH LINEAR AND

SUPER CELLULAR MODES POSSIBLE.

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DVN..

THE MCS IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BETTER

SUPPORT IN THE PLAINS. THE TRENDS FROM THE RUC ARE HANDLING THE

OVERALL SITUATION THE BEST AND INDICATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE

CURRENT PRECIP WILL EXIT THE CWFA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THUS HAVE

GONE WITH SCHC POPS IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST TO COVER ANY LINGERING

PRECIP. MCS/LIFT TOOLS FROM THE RUC AND THE 310K THETA SFC INDICATE

DOWNWARD MOTION WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE

MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC

CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE AT 18Z WHICH SHOULD

PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL

LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP AS OF 18Z.

CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT

MAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT

CONVECTION FIRES IN THE CWFA OR JUST TO THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD POOL FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL PLAY

HEAVILY INTO THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE

AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING

UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.

STORMS SHOULD FIRE IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE

INTO A LINEAR MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN

HALF OF THE CWFA. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY AND THE

LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MIGHT RESULT IN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IF STORMS

INTERACT WITH THEM. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE STORMS

WOULD BE FROM 21Z TO 03Z.

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Just a slight shift in the momentum of the Plains season, eh? Next three days all look very ominous for KS/OK/TX, particularly Mon-Tue.

Don't get your hopes up too high, there's still a lot of uncertainties and it IS 2011. Modeling has been all over the place with this one.

Congrats on your catch... those are some amazing pics.

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Don't get your hopes up too high, there's still a lot of uncertainties and it IS 2011. Modeling has been all over the place with this one.

Congrats on your catch... those are some amazing pics.

This may be true, but the trend has been an uptick in potential with the Mon-Wed system in the models.

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outlook upgrade to moderate risk likely in next update

mcd0847.gif

AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE

DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE AT 13Z. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL AND

WESTERN/SOUTHERN WI...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED LATER

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL

DISCUSSION...SEE THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND

13Z. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /PWO/ WILL ALSO BE ISSUED EARLY

THIS MORNING.

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Southern WI works for me. :) Got me fired up to rub the sleep out of my eyes and see that beautiful pink-outlined MCD soon as the 'puter fired up.

Don't know about anyone else in S WI, but right now, I can't see 250'. This is REALLY dense fog this morning. 55F.

Location is 12 miles inland from Lake MI, about 45 mins. north of Downtown Milwaukee.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0755 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN PLNS NORTH AND

EAST INTO THE MID AND UPR MS VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK

AREA...FROM S TX NORTHEAST TO THE UPR GRT LKS...

..SYNOPSIS

SD CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE TO SRN MN THIS EVE AND EVOLVE

INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER WI EARLY MON AS BROAD...NEGATIVE TILT

UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BETWEEN THESE TWO

FEATURES...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E FROM THE CNTRL/SRN

RCKYS TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. AT THE SFC...A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT

WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND ACROSS ERN KS/MO LATER

TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE FARTHER S...DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM SE KS TO

THE TX BIG BEND. THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT IN KS

AND WILL RETREAT NW ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER IN THE PERIOD.

BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE TO FOCUS INTENSE TSTM

DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BOTH

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARIES...SOME OF THE

STORMS LIKELY WILL YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DMGG

WIND.

..MID/UPR MS VLY TO GRT LKS/OH VLY

STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ AHEAD OF UPR VORT MAX IN BASE OF SD UPR LOW

SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL AIR MAS RECOVERY NWD ACROSS MUCH OF

IA...SE MN...NRN MO...IL...AND WI THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF

OVERNIGHT SQLN. WITH TIME...LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO SPREAD

NEWD FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GRT LKS/OH VLY. COUPLED WITH

MODERATE SFC HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS...EXPECT

2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE BY AFTN WHERE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS.

COMBINATION OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD

OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...AND INCREASING UVV SHOULD

SUPPORT SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF STORMS OVER PARTS OF IA...SE

MN...AND WRN WI BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD AND

EWD INTO PARTS OF MO AND WRN/NRN IL BY MID TO LATE AFTN AS BAND OF

50 KT 700 MB FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION ON S SIDE OF UPR VORT.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL

WILL EXIST FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE DESTRUCTIVE

INTERFERENCE ULTIMATELY MAY LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY...A WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS POSING A

THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG

WIND....ESPECIALLY FROM WRN WI SWD THROUGH SE MN INTO ERN IA...WRN

IL...AND POSSIBLY NE MO. WITH TIME...STRENGTH OF FORCING AND

CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF UPR VORT SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL

EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QLCS...WITH A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL

AND ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUING EWD TO THE CHICAGO AREA AND POSSIBLY

INTO PARTS OF LWR MI/IND TONIGHT.

..SRN PLNS

VERY RICH GULF MOISTURE...WITH LOW 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND PW AROUND

1.75 INCHES...WILL PERSIST/SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE

PLNS TODAY BENEATH BROAD STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME ASSOCIATED

WITH SRN STREAM WSWLY FLOW/EML. COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC

HEATING...SETUP LIKELY WILL YIELD A CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG

INSTABILITY /SBCAPE UP TO 6000 J PER KG/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY

LINE/COLD FRONT FROM S CNTRL TX NEWD INTO SE KS...SW MO...AND NW AR

BY LATE TODAY.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE

PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES POSSIBLE AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE

APPROACHES REGION. IN ADDITION...APPRECIABLE CINH WILL BE PRESENT

DUE TO EML. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SLIGHTLY

CONFLUENT LOW LVL SSWLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WDLY SCTD

INTENSE STORMS FROM ERN OK INTO SW MO/NW AR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

MORE ISOLD INTENSE ACTIVITY ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL OK SWD INTO S

CNTRL TX.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR

SUPERCELLS...POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW

INSTANCES OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES/LOCALLY

DMGG WIND. STRENGTHENING LLJ AFTER NIGHTFALL AND CONTINUING

PRESENCE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT COULD

CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NW TX AND

CNTRL/WRN OK LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS LLJ CONTINUES TO

STRENGTHEN AND SLIGHTLY BACKS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM

TROUGH...ENHANCING WAA/MOISTURE FLUX INVOF RETREATING DRY LINE.

..LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS

TSTM COMPLEX NOW OVER AR MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AND BE

ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS

AS AREA OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN DESTABILIZES BENEATH SRN FRINGE

OF CYCLONIC MID/UPR LVL FLOW. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL

BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY

ORGANIZATION INTO ONE OR TWO NEW CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG

WIND/HAIL AND...ASSUMING FAVORABLE STORM MODE... POSSIBLY A COUPLE

TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/22/2011

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There is obviously still time for models to back off, but that time is becoming short. These kinds of increases in parameters in the hours leading up to an event generally lead to productive outbreaks of severe weather.

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f012.gif

09z run valid at 21z

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

Versus 03z run valid at 21z

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