Thundersnow12 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 had to post this here too in case people didn't see it in the May discussion thread.. now this is cool....don't think I've ever seen gravity waves like this on BREF/VEL before, pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Just a slight shift in the momentum of the Plains season, eh? Next three days all look very ominous for KS/OK/TX, particularly Mon-Tue. A couple highlights from today: Near Hickory, OK (0040 UTC) 3 W Ada, OK (0133 UTC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Likely overdone cause its the RUC but the 6z run increases CAPE in northern IL from about 250 j/kg at 15z to >3000 j/kg by 18z....crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Just a slight shift in the momentum of the Plains season, eh? Next three days all look very ominous for KS/OK/TX, particularly Mon-Tue. Day3 convective outlook is fairly strongly worded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswx29 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I'm not too sure what his user name is. He's a very good friend of mine. kswx maybe? Ah, that would be me. Shortly before we took shelter I looked outside and the wind had picked up a great deal (I'd estimate 60-70MPH), and I seen a lot of debris in the air. We then went to the basement and took shelter. While down there the lights went out. We then came up and went outside to find some pretty good size tree branches down and that was about it. I was quite surprised since I seen that debris in the air. I guess the NWS in Topeka says an EF-0 came thru southern and eastern Topeka and I am in southeast Topeka. I did get some pictures of the tree branches down but unfortunately did not get any pictures of the funnels and debris. I'm actually disappointed with the NWS and SPC. Only a Severe Thunderstorm watch was in effect, and I and others seen rotation on the radar for about 10 minutes before a tornado warning was issued. Shawnee County sounded the sirens about 3 minutes before a warning was issued. Fortunately this storm did not produce a large tornado and produce any deaths. It's unfortunate what happened in Reading though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 3 W Ada, OK (0133 UTC) Very impressive looking supercell with tornado at the base of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomspy77 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Don't want to hijack this thread but I have a severe weather/tornadoe phobia post in the off topic section that I would be grateful if anyone had any calming words as tomorrows tornadoe probs really are freaking me out and want to know how afraid I should be. Excuse me for being a fool and for posting out of turn and out of context/subject matter...I'm just really freaked by the hatcheted area...sorry again for the un-intended hijack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 DTX's thoughts for today and then tonight/tomorrow Today: AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A REGION OF MODEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND RELATIVELY UNIFORM SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMAS A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE TRIGGER IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER SE MICHIGAN. A BROAD 30-40KT SSWLY LLJ OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL AID LATE AFTN DESTABILIZATION AS IT USHERS IN A SECONDARY PUSH OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER SE LOWER MI WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED. GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27-29C....DIURNAL HEATING ALONE COULD GET THINGS GOING BY LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SBCAPE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY ABOVE THE LFC (GFS/NAM 750MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS > 15C) AND A DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING LAYER WILL PROMOTE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE AS SFC MOISTURE CONTENT IS MIXED OUT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEED 10C THROUGH THE LOWEST 1500 FT AGL. CONSEQUENTLY...ENVIRONMENTAL LCLS WILL BE AROUND 4KFT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THUS...DESPITE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...THINKING IS THAT WITH THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN WILL QUICKLY BECOME MODULATED BY EVAPORATION-INDUCED DOWNDRAFTS RESULTING IN WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WIDESPREAD VERY ROBUST DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH ARE ACTUALLY SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO THE PROGGED "UPDRAFT CAPE" VALUES. GIVEN MODERATE CAPE DENSITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES TO BECOME ORGANIZED...HAIL COULD ALSO BE SEEN AS A POTENTIAL THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND THE EXPECTED PROPENSITY FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE DOWNDRAFT-DOMINATED CONVECTION...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...THOUGH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED/WEAKLY FORCED WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME. THUS...MAINTAINED THE GOING CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. Tonight/Tomorrow INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW /850MB WINDS UP TO 45KTS/ INTO SW LOWER MI WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MESO SCALE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO LIFT INTO SRN MI...DEPENDENT UPON OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TODAY. SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CAPE DENSITY DURING THE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT /PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FLOOD THREAT AS WELL. DECENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50 KTS BY AFTERNOON. DURATION AND COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE INTO THE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY ON MONDAY. SO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON INSOLATION HOWEVER MAY VERY WELL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE MLCAPE VALUES UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THIS MODEST INSTABILITY WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH BOTH LINEAR AND SUPER CELLULAR MODES POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 DVN.. THE MCS IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BETTER SUPPORT IN THE PLAINS. THE TRENDS FROM THE RUC ARE HANDLING THE OVERALL SITUATION THE BEST AND INDICATE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CURRENT PRECIP WILL EXIT THE CWFA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS IN THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST TO COVER ANY LINGERING PRECIP. MCS/LIFT TOOLS FROM THE RUC AND THE 310K THETA SFC INDICATE DOWNWARD MOTION WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE AT 18Z WHICH SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP AS OF 18Z. CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION FIRES IN THE CWFA OR JUST TO THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. BOUNDARIES AND THE COLD POOL FROM THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL PLAY HEAVILY INTO THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. STORMS SHOULD FIRE IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY AND THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES MIGHT RESULT IN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IF STORMS INTERACT WITH THEM. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE FROM 21Z TO 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Whoa! Cool shots Jake and Brett! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Just a slight shift in the momentum of the Plains season, eh? Next three days all look very ominous for KS/OK/TX, particularly Mon-Tue. Don't get your hopes up too high, there's still a lot of uncertainties and it IS 2011. Modeling has been all over the place with this one. Congrats on your catch... those are some amazing pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Don't get your hopes up too high, there's still a lot of uncertainties and it IS 2011. Modeling has been all over the place with this one. Congrats on your catch... those are some amazing pics. This may be true, but the trend has been an uptick in potential with the Mon-Wed system in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 outlook upgrade to moderate risk likely in next update AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE AT 13Z. THIS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN IL AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN WI...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...SEE THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY AROUND 13Z. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /PWO/ WILL ALSO BE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Southern WI might be the place to be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Southern WI might be the place to be today. Yeah I am liking QC to Dubuque to Beloit to Rockford area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Southern WI works for me. Got me fired up to rub the sleep out of my eyes and see that beautiful pink-outlined MCD soon as the 'puter fired up. Don't know about anyone else in S WI, but right now, I can't see 250'. This is REALLY dense fog this morning. 55F. Location is 12 miles inland from Lake MI, about 45 mins. north of Downtown Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Yeah I am liking QC to Dubuque to Beloit to Rockford area. Lots of sunshine this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Lots of sunshine this morning. That sun better break out near the lake soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Target area didn't have to worry about possible contamination from overnight convection as earlier feared. And if initiation holds off until 21z time frame this could be quite the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Lots of sunshine this morning. yeah, woke up to clear skies, check vis sat and liked what i saw, clearing all over the area with almost no morning junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Whoa! Cool shots Jake and Brett! +1 some of the photogenic structure shots i've seen this year, great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Hello, Chi town...per RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Hello, Chi town...per RUC HRRR blows up some discrete action in northcentral and northeast illinois out ahead of a line that pulls through later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Low level moisture is now return northward across the outlook area. The leading edge is marked pretty clearly by the stratus/stratocumulus deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Well, what do you know? The clouds are breaking up. Maybe we can have constant sunshine now for several hours before the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN PLNS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MID AND UPR MS VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM S TX NORTHEAST TO THE UPR GRT LKS... ..SYNOPSIS SD CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE TO SRN MN THIS EVE AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER WI EARLY MON AS BROAD...NEGATIVE TILT UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E FROM THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. AT THE SFC...A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND ACROSS ERN KS/MO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE FARTHER S...DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM SE KS TO THE TX BIG BEND. THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND WILL RETREAT NW ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE TO FOCUS INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARIES...SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY WILL YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DMGG WIND. ..MID/UPR MS VLY TO GRT LKS/OH VLY STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ AHEAD OF UPR VORT MAX IN BASE OF SD UPR LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL AIR MAS RECOVERY NWD ACROSS MUCH OF IA...SE MN...NRN MO...IL...AND WI THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT SQLN. WITH TIME...LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GRT LKS/OH VLY. COUPLED WITH MODERATE SFC HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS...EXPECT 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE BY AFTN WHERE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS. COMBINATION OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...AND INCREASING UVV SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF STORMS OVER PARTS OF IA...SE MN...AND WRN WI BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD AND EWD INTO PARTS OF MO AND WRN/NRN IL BY MID TO LATE AFTN AS BAND OF 50 KT 700 MB FLOW OVERSPREADS REGION ON S SIDE OF UPR VORT. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE ULTIMATELY MAY LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND....ESPECIALLY FROM WRN WI SWD THROUGH SE MN INTO ERN IA...WRN IL...AND POSSIBLY NE MO. WITH TIME...STRENGTH OF FORCING AND CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF UPR VORT SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QLCS...WITH A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUING EWD TO THE CHICAGO AREA AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF LWR MI/IND TONIGHT. ..SRN PLNS VERY RICH GULF MOISTURE...WITH LOW 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WILL PERSIST/SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY BENEATH BROAD STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM WSWLY FLOW/EML. COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP LIKELY WILL YIELD A CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE UP TO 6000 J PER KG/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT FROM S CNTRL TX NEWD INTO SE KS...SW MO...AND NW AR BY LATE TODAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES POSSIBLE AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE APPROACHES REGION. IN ADDITION...APPRECIABLE CINH WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO EML. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL SSWLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WDLY SCTD INTENSE STORMS FROM ERN OK INTO SW MO/NW AR BY LATE IN THE DAY. MORE ISOLD INTENSE ACTIVITY ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL OK SWD INTO S CNTRL TX. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW INSTANCES OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. STRENGTHENING LLJ AFTER NIGHTFALL AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF VERY RICH MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT THE TORNADO THREAT COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NW TX AND CNTRL/WRN OK LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SLIGHTLY BACKS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ENHANCING WAA/MOISTURE FLUX INVOF RETREATING DRY LINE. ..LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS TSTM COMPLEX NOW OVER AR MAY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEWD INTO THE TN/LWR OH VLYS AS AREA OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN DESTABILIZES BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF CYCLONIC MID/UPR LVL FLOW. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME SUSTAINED ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ORGANIZATION INTO ONE OR TWO NEW CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL AND...ASSUMING FAVORABLE STORM MODE... POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/22/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I would say given the gaps in the clouds and therefore the rapid heating (temp up to 68 with dewpoints in the mid 60s) Kenosha is a likely hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 There is obviously still time for models to back off, but that time is becoming short. These kinds of increases in parameters in the hours leading up to an event generally lead to productive outbreaks of severe weather. 09z run valid at 21z Versus 03z run valid at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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