cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Some pretty nice forecast soundings over eastern Iowa late tomorrow afternoon. I think we're going to be okay as far as deep shear profiles for supercells, but the million dollar question remains just how unstable will it get before the weak CINH gives way. If we manage to get as unstable as some of the guidance has indicated over the past day or two (>2500j/kg) we'll have ourselves a very nice setup. Some of the guidance has forecast cape values above 3500j/kg as well. If that were to happen we'll have a pretty serious setup for tornadoes I think. Eastern Iowa tomorrow at 21z. 90 degrees of turning from just off the surface up to 600mb. Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 i was going to head into the office tomorrow to catch up, but i don't think that will be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The good ol' 24hr RUC. Very beefy cape values as you'd expect compared to other models. Too high but still some eye candy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 personal fame? glory? the rush? 99% of folks would not chase storms if it was not "fun" just to "save lives"... dont pretend. My thought is that I don't wish for damages from storms, but if it's going to happen anyway, I wanna see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Yeah, and there should be no shame in admitting it. Unfortunately, there's certainly pressure from the media (and even a certain contingent of veterans, perhaps) to portray oneself this way, lest you be labeled a yahoo. I think having chasers out there is a net plus either way, but you certainly don't hear of chaser parties on bust days because no one was put in harms way etc. I'm mostly an outsider, would not consider myself a chaser at this pt.. more an observer. But, it's clear that everyone wants to see action... and there's nothing wrong with that IMO. It happens whether or not someone observes it. btw: i spent like an hour on your site yesterday.. im having a pre mid-life crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 My thought is that I don't wish for damages from storms, but if it's going to happen anyway, I wanna see it! Makes sense.. good to be honest about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Although the model itself has not been very good in its first ten hours since initialization, here is the link to the 00z Monday WRF: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_036m.gif As you can see it has a good squall line plowing through Wisconsin and N. Illinois at that point, similar to the one shown several posts above, though slightly further east at that same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 As I take a look at all the guidance, including the 18z models, most if not all have the squall line (derecho) plowing across the Mississippi River into Wisconsin. It is impressive that even the less bullish NAM has it, although it appears to show only rain showers (no bright convection shown on the simulation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Did everyone survive the rapture? good, that means storms tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Did everyone survive the rapture? good, that means storms tomorrow! Maybe they were wrong about the date of the rapture, and that derecho (ahem, squall line) is the sign of the end?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Some pretty nice forecast soundings over eastern Iowa late tomorrow afternoon. I think we're going to be okay as far as deep shear profiles for supercells, but the million dollar question remains just how unstable will it get before the weak CINH gives way. If we manage to get as unstable as some of the guidance has indicated over the past day or two (>2500j/kg) we'll have ourselves a very nice setup. Some of the guidance has forecast cape values above 3500j/kg as well. If that were to happen we'll have a pretty serious setup for tornadoes I think. Eastern Iowa tomorrow at 21z. 90 degrees of turning from just off the surface up to 600mb. Very nice! So why do you think all the weather offices are downplaying any possible tornado threat? The only office that seriously considers it is Duluth, for the NW Wisconsin counties up near the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The tornado sirens in Topeka Kansas are going off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 608 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... SHAWNEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 604 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AUBURN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOPEKA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PAULINE... TOPEKA... BERRYTON... RICHLAND... TECUMSEH... GRANTVILLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Live funnel on Topeka WIBW http://ww2.wibw.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=l&d1=0&ClipId1=mms%3A//a1992.l1202832281.c12028.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1992/12028/v0001/reflector%3A32281&LiveURI=mms%3A//a1992.l1202832281.c12028.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1992/12028/v0001/reflector%3A32281&h1=Live%20Stream%20from%20WIBW&at1=News&LiveURITitle=Live%20Stream%20from%20WIBW&LaunchPageAdTag=News&fvCatNo=undefined&secure=undefined&akPort=undefined&akProfile=undefined&rnd=46565691 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 So why do you think all the weather offices are downplaying any possible tornado threat? The only office that seriously considers it is Duluth, for the NW Wisconsin counties up near the low. Setup is a little messy so probably wise to not go overboard yet. Potential is certainly there though as you can see on the forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011 KSC045-087-139-177-220000- /O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110522T0000Z/ SHAWNEE-OSAGE-JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS- 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND SHAWNEE COUNTIES... AT 618 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS FUNNEL CLOUD WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH TOPEKA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING NUMEROUS FUNNELS AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW! LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PAULINE...SOUTH CENTRAL TOPEKA...FORBES FIELD...BERRYTON...BILLARD AIRPORT...RICHLAND...TECUMSEH AND GRANTVILLE. THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 165 AND 193. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Not to be a debby downer but I am a little concerned about all the low-level cold pools NAM is trying to paint across the warm sector tomorrow. If a line happens to orient itself E-W it might cut off moist inflow for storms to the north. That could be a potential fly in the ointment. Initiation could be fairly early as well, when the low-level flow is not very strong. So the setup will likely be messy, but as Hoosier says, the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Live funnel on Topeka WIBW http://ww2.wibw.com/...ed&rnd=46565691 On their tower cam looking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110522T0000Z/ SHAWNEE-JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS- 650 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND EAST CENTRAL SHAWNEE COUNTIES... AT 646 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF BILLARD AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SEEK SHELTER NOW! THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! BASEBALL SIZE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY! LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GRANTVILLE. THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 179 AND 193. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I'm not sure if I'm liking Sunday or Monday better here for severe weather. It's a great setup, it would be a shame if it went to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Tornado Warning in Anoka Cty MN until 8 PM CDT http://video.dot.sta...eo/image?id=670 Traffic cam showing wall cloud near Coon Rapids, MN at 7:30 PM CT More cameras: http://www.dot.state.mn.us/tmc/trafficinfo/cameras_map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Waterspout reported over Lake Perry in NE. Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Man is that Oklahoma supercell beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 It is getting surprisingly active this evening in parts of the MO valley and down in OK as the LLJ revs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 It is getting surprisingly active this evening in parts of the MO Valley and OK as the LLj revs up. Agreed, the LLJ is certainly stronger than I thought it might be tonight, though from an unfavorable/favorable direction for most areas (depends on how you look at it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 It is getting surprisingly active this evening in parts of the MO valley and down in OK as the LLJ revs up. I wouldn't say it's surprising... Everything seems to be going as planned thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 I wouldn't say it's surprising... Everything seems to be going as planned thus far. I didn't expect the number of confirmed tors we have been recording tonight. I hope tomorrow will be interesting in Northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Man is that Oklahoma supercell beautiful! amazing watching the supercell to its southeast just vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The tornado in Topeka tonight actually hit a member of the forums' house. He says there is damage in his neighbourhood and trees down on his property. Also, he has no power right now. (not his video, one I found on youtube) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WuLPJZdjhk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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