Stebo Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Yeah, but I don't think I've ever seen the 30% contour drawn quite like that. Oh no I agree, sometimes I think they might over think things once and a while. This might be just one of those instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Yeah, but I don't think I've ever seen the 30% contour drawn quite like that. It looks like a radar signature of the world's largest supercell. It just needs the hook from Northwest TX into LA. Someone at SPC must not like IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Yeah, but I don't think I've ever seen the 30% contour drawn quite like that. It's shaped like a heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Looks like a near perfect screaming eagle signature. If this was radar I'd be looking for the hook to form as IWXwx referenced. Maybe it's a hint on how things might strengthen for Sunday in further updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The 12z NAM keeps alot of precip in the warm sector throughout the day and has pockets of greater instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The 12z NAM keeps alot of precip in the warm sector throughout the day and has pockets of greater instability. To me, it looks like the NAM barely gives much of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin any convection at all. The convection today is focused mainly in Central and Northern Wisconsin, and tomorrow in Central Illinois. Thank goodness it's the NAM and has handled recent severe situations rather poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 Michigan too, but we are accustomed to it. This is my favorite of all time, I'm sure you'll appreciate it as well. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2005/day1otlk_20050630_2000.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The 12z NAM keeps alot of precip in the warm sector throughout the day and has pockets of greater instability. Seems believable as that seems to happen around here on decent events. Lots of leftover activity from tonight may help to screw this whole setup up. Hopefully not, but I'm not as optimistic as I was last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The GFS and RGEM look better in regards to less precip in the warm sector prior to late Sunday afternoon. That results in a broad area of moderate instability on the GFS compared to the blotchy areas on the NAM. The new RGEM looks pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 NAM and GFS both have no cap and over 2000 J/kg of CAPE over Michigan tomorrow afternoon so it probably wouldn't take much forcing to touch off some late afternoon storms here tomorrow. Otherwise we'll be relying on the Illinois storms to track NE tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 No cap at all with moderate to high instability isn't necessarily good thing. It can create a convective mess. It's hard to get discrete and dominant supercells like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 No cap at all with moderate to high instability isn't necessarily good thing. It can create a convective mess. It's hard to get discrete and dominant supercells like that. Yep you are correct...but let's face it this is Michigan, so we almost never get discrete/dominant supercells. I'd be perfectly happy with a multicellular/linear mode of convection & scattered damaging wind reports here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Yep you are correct...but let's face it this is Michigan, so we almost never get discrete/dominant supercells. I'd be perfectly happy with a multicellular/linear mode of convection & scattered damaging wind reports here tomorrow. Your an idiot for wishing for damage from storms, I hope your roof blows off. Wouldn't that be cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Well, the 1730 Day 2 SWO is out, and it is pretty similar, although it extends the 30% chance and the slight risk even further north, and still mentions the potential for favorable hodographs for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Seems believable as that seems to happen around here on decent events. Lots of leftover activity from tonight may help to screw this whole setup up. Hopefully not, but I'm not as optimistic as I was last night. I see nothing to be worried about at this point. The 4km WRF, ARW, or RUC essentially have no early initiation issues. We'll just have to watch and see if any disturbance trys to move through early to aide in convective development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Your an idiot for wishing for damage from storms, I hope your roof blows off. Wouldn't that be cool? I want a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Well, as Ernie Ostuno at KGRR has said many a times: Michigan is LONG OVERDUE for a tornado outbreak/strong tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Your an idiot for wishing for damage from storms, I hope your roof blows off. Wouldn't that be cool? I had two trees blow down on my property last June from separate svr weather events. Yes, it was a mess and costly, but I am still fascinated by svr weather. What we want or don't want won't matter at all to what mother nature will eventually provide on occasion, so we just need to be prepared and focus on the power of nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 Your an idiot for wishing for damage from storms, I hope your roof blows off. Wouldn't that be cool? Cool dude. Based on your username I'm assmuing you go storm chasing sometimes...you think some of those storms are doing damge by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I had two trees blow down on my property last June from separate svr weather events. Yes, it was a mess and costly, but I am still fascinated by svr weather. What we want or don't want won't matter at all to what mother nature will eventually provide on occasion, so we just need to be prepared and focus on the power of nature. Well said. When push comes to shove, I doubt most of us want to be the one to suffer a lot of damage, but it's going to happen somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 21, 2011 Author Share Posted May 21, 2011 Well said. When push comes to shove, I doubt most of us want to be the one to suffer a lot of damage, but it's going to happen somewhere. Yep. How I, or anyone else, feels about the weather isn't going to make a difference in what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Cool dude. Based on your username I'm assmuing you go storm chasing sometimes...you think some of those storms are doing damge by any chance? Of course I've seen houses completely ripped off their foundation from tornadoes. But storm chasing isn't about seeing the biggest tornado. It is about relaying your reports from the field to the meteorologists in the office to keep the general public safe. I would NEVER wish damage on anything. After such shows on TWC and Discovery the influx of chasers do not stand by the original reason why we started chasing storms in the first place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 After such shows on TWC and Discovery the influx of chasers do not stand by the original reason why we started chasing storms in the first place! personal fame? glory? the rush? 99% of folks would not chase storms if it was not "fun" just to "save lives"... dont pretend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 It is about relaying your reports from the field to the meteorologists in the office to keep the general public safe. Uh huh, sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Keller Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I want a derecho. But only if it hits North Mankato. A perfect scenario would be a couple of EF5's picking Makato up and dumping them on North Mankato! I wish! I wish! I wish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 personal fame? glory? the rush? 99% of folks would not chase storms if it was not "fun" just to "save lives"... dont pretend. Yeah, and there should be no shame in admitting it. Unfortunately, there's certainly pressure from the media (and even a certain contingent of veterans, perhaps) to portray oneself this way, lest you be labeled a yahoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 4km WRF at 00z later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 234 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... DODGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 232 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SCHUYLER...OR 22 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... NORTH BEND AROUND 300 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ROGERS...MORSE BLUFF AND 7 MILES NORTH OF NORTH BEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 checking in, things looking up for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 MKX mentioned the "D" word (derecho). Sounds like the conditions are at least favorable for one coming in late tomorrow night toward the Western Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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