Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 NW. Indiana is nice too after dark, though the flow from 500-750mb is not as strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 hahaha wow I just texted you the wind profile/hodo just south of Sterling is damn nice, too funny. The 0z NAM develops a line of storms at 18z in eastern IA which races east to chicagoland but quickly destablizes behind this small complex and then lights up from DBQ on down into MO by 0z. Looks good... It took a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I don't think I've ever seen this before in the sfc wind field...The NAM blows up a serious MCS by 3z late sunday night over northern IL and check out the wind fields its putting out. It's showing 70kts at 900mb at 3z over northern IL..oh hey LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I almost think it might be a good thing to be in the screw zone right now with the thunderstorms this weekend: most of the convection tomorrow passes just to our north, and most of the convection Sunday just to our south. Then again, my morale for prospects of severe is pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 getting into the timeframe when the SREF really starts to pick up on the threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 getting into the timeframe when the SREF really starts to pick up on the threat... I know it's just one piece of the pie but we'll see if that's a trend none the less. Definitely a marked increase at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I know it's just one piece of the pie but we'll see if that's a trend none the less. Definitely a marked increase at that time frame. So, does SPC shift the slight risk north when it does the new Day 2 SWO? 5% probs for parts of N. Illinois and all of S. Wisconsin seem a bit low considering the local discussions and maps like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 So, does SPC shift the slight risk north when it does the new Day 2 SWO? 5% probs for parts of N. Illinois and all of S. Wisconsin seem a bit low considering the local discussions and maps like this. I have to think it would shift north at least a bit. They could also potentially defer to the 1730 Day 2 tomorrow before doing anything too drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The GFS is coming in stronger with the s/w and a bit further south/stronger with the associated sfc reflection by 12z sunday....sounds like were tracking a winter storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The GFS is coming in stronger with the s/w and a bit further south/stronger with the associated sfc reflection by 12z sunday....sounds like were tracking a winter storm lol Shouldn't it realistically come in further NW if the system is stronger? Of course it would trend in the direction we don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The GFS is coming in stronger with the s/w and a bit further south/stronger with the associated sfc reflection by 12z sunday....sounds like were tracking a winter storm lol Then congrats Duluth/International Falls lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 something that caught my eye with the new GFS compared to the 12z run is that its stronger aloft and quicker...just look at H7. The new run closes off the 700mb low in central MN where the 12z run hangs it back along with the jet max. If the 0z run were to verfiy we will have no problem getting convection and possibly too much, that is a strong 700mb wave. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I don't think I've ever seen this before in the sfc wind field...The NAM blows up a serious MCS by 3z late sunday night over northern IL and check out the wind fields its putting out. It's showing 70kts at 900mb at 3z over northern IL..oh hey LLJ HOLY ****! That's pretty impressive. Looks like there's been quite a few changes with the new 00z runs based on all your guys posts. I'm gonna start digging into them here in a sec. That sounding from the Sterling area was pretty sick. That's not too far away from here either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 *Borat voice....very nicccce! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The 00z models have definitely sped things up compared to the 12z runs. Forcing in the mid levels is further east. Overall the whole setup took a big step in the right direction IMO. Wind profiles from the surface on up look very nice. That combined with moderate instability will about guarantee severe convection over a huge part of the Midwest. Directional shear profiles look more than adequate for tornadic supercells. The big question is will the strong forcing lead to too much storm competition and eventual linear squall line evolution? With such deep directional shear I'm guessing we should get at least a period of discrete supercells before they all organize into a quasi-linear MCS type thing. Tornadoes would still be possible with the QLCS, but the best shot at photogenic tornadoes would obviously be before the QLCS takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The 00z models have definitely sped things up compared to the 12z runs. Forcing in the mid levels is further east. Overall the whole setup took a big step in the right direction IMO. Wind profiles from the surface on up look very nice. That combined with moderate instability will about guarantee severe convection over a huge part of the Midwest. Directional shear profiles look more than adequate for tornadic supercells. The big question is will the strong forcing lead to too much storm competition and eventual linear squall line evolution? With such deep directional shear I'm guessing we should get at least a period of discrete supercells before they all organize into a quasi-linear MCS type thing. Tornadoes would still be possible with the QLCS, but the best shot at photogenic tornadoes would obviously be before the QLCS takes over. At this point, from my point of view, I just want severe storms. The quicker nature of these new models is very good for further east locations like Chicago and Milwaukee, as the convection was looking more like a nocturnal event previously (and it still might be). It's interesting, though, b/c it seems like the initial convection tomorrow is actually going to be delayed, which seems divergent from the trend in the 0z models to speed the jet up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 BOOM....not often you see a supercell potential on here of 99.9% This is for SQI (Sterling, IL) alot of other good things on here as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The 00z models have definitely sped things up compared to the 12z runs. Forcing in the mid levels is further east. Overall the whole setup took a big step in the right direction IMO. Wind profiles from the surface on up look very nice. That combined with moderate instability will about guarantee severe convection over a huge part of the Midwest. Directional shear profiles look more than adequate for tornadic supercells. The big question is will the strong forcing lead to too much storm competition and eventual linear squall line evolution? With such deep directional shear I'm guessing we should get at least a period of discrete supercells before they all organize into a quasi-linear MCS type thing. Tornadoes would still be possible with the QLCS, but the best shot at photogenic tornadoes would obviously be before the QLCS takes over. I think we could have a tornadic window until about 3z Monday, whether in discrete cell or QLCS form. Low level CINH increases markedly after that per the NAM. I haven't spent more than 10 minutes on this setup to be honest...just can't get into it for some reason. Hopefully that will change tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 BOOM....not often you see a supercell potential on here of 99.9% This is for SQI (Sterling, IL) alot of other good things on here as well.. Man is that beautiful! Can't imagine anything other than supercellular in an environment like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 scratch that...I found one better, this is VYS (Lasalle/Peru, IL) A tad stronger of a cap on this one than SQI but more unstable and a sup potential of 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 *Borat voice....very nicccce! 0-3km SRH is quite nice too (350-400 at 0z). 0-1km ramps around and after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ..SYNOPSIS MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/ASSOCIATED JET STREAKS DIG INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. NEAR THE BASE OF THE POLAR TROUGH...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS PROGGED AS IT NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FARTHER EAST...LOWER/MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST. BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A REMNANT CLOSED LOW MAY BEGIN ACCELERATING MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY OVER A RATHER BROAD AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AN INFLUX OF MID 60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHEAR...BENEATH A COUPLE OF BROAD BELTS OF 30-50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD...INCLUDING ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..LWR OH/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FIRST...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MID DAY...FROM PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...PERHAPS A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATION OR TWO...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEVERAL SMALL BUT ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY OCCUR BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...TRACKING EASTWARD AND GENERATING SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING. ..UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH THE REMNANT UPPER LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AN AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A WEAK SOUTHWARD TRAILING SURFACE FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES SUNDAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET...COUPLED WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW...COULD YIELD FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT REGIME NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE STORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY REGION. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...BUT MORE MODEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY LIMIT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 05/21/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 something that caught my eye with the new GFS compared to the 12z run is that its stronger aloft and quicker...just look at H7. The new run closes off the 700mb low in central MN where the 12z run hangs it back along with the jet max. If the 0z run were to verfiy we will have no problem getting convection and possibly too much, that is a strong 700mb wave. 0z 12z Pretty small scale sub-synoptic differences yielding a rather large wind field spreads associated with the small anomaly aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY OVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ..SYNOPSIS MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/ASSOCIATED JET STREAKS DIG INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. NEAR THE BASE OF THE POLAR TROUGH...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS PROGGED AS IT NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FARTHER EAST...LOWER/MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST. BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A REMNANT CLOSED LOW MAY BEGIN ACCELERATING MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY OVER A RATHER BROAD AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AN INFLUX OF MID 60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHEAR...BENEATH A COUPLE OF BROAD BELTS OF 30-50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD...INCLUDING ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..LWR OH/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FIRST...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MID DAY...FROM PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...PERHAPS A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATION OR TWO...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEVERAL SMALL BUT ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY OCCUR BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...TRACKING EASTWARD AND GENERATING SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION DURING THE EVENING. ..UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH THE REMNANT UPPER LOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AN AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A WEAK SOUTHWARD TRAILING SURFACE FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES SUNDAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET...COUPLED WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW...COULD YIELD FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT REGIME NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE STORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY REGION. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...BUT MORE MODEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY LIMIT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 05/21/2011 They haven't updated the NWS site where the SWOs are found for me yet. Where do you find the discussions so early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Certainly like the uptick in the models tonight, all signs pointing to a busy overnight period for Southern Lower Michigan Sunday Night. Although the best stuff looks to be Southwest of MI during the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 They haven't updated the NWS site where the SWOs are found for me yet. Where do you find the discussions so early? COD weather site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 lol...the day 2 prob map is a save worthy screwjob for Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 lol...the day 2 prob map is a save worthy screwjob for Indiana. Michigan too, but we are accustomed to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 COD weather site Thanks. They extended the slight risk even further NW from the Day 3 of yesterday than I thought they would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Michigan too, but we are accustomed to it. Yeah, but I don't think I've ever seen the 30% contour drawn quite like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.