SEMIweather Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Models have been showing a decent threat for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Models have been showing a decent threat for a few days now. for starting a separate thread. As I said on the original one, the Cape looks like it has increased for Sunday, expected to be 1500 j/kg yesterday, and now the AFD stated they're expecting 2-3K, as well as 40 knots of bulk shear. Overall, looks like a decent threat, which is much better than it looked a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 One or more days in the Sunday-Wednesday period looks to be chase worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 The Sunday-Wednesday period looks to be chase worthy. Where do you think the storms on Monday thru Wednesday will fire up? It seems like the front will stall out just south of the Great Lakes region, so maybe the Northern Ohio Valley, although there is still enough instability in the Southern Great Lakes on Monday to perhaps warrant a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Where do you think the storms on Monday thru Wednesday will fire up? It seems like the front will stall out just south of the Great Lakes region, so maybe the Northern Ohio Valley, although there is still enough instability in the Southern Great Lakes on Monday to perhaps warrant a threat. An early target for Sun/Mon looks to be IA/IL. For Tue/Wed, the ECMWF is much farther north than the GFS is with the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Euro surges another low up thru MN on Wed/Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Sunday got my attention after looking at the 18z NAM for IL...this is for just east of PIA sunday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Euro surges another low up thru MN on Wed/Thur. The Euro's definitely our friend for next week's unsettled weather, compared to the cold GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Ya was just looking at the 12z Euro and it as well has alot of juice in central IL (near 4000 j/kg) and the PIA sounding sunday evening had over 90 degrees of turning from the sfc to H5 but only 30kts of H5 flow, nice low-level shear though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Gotta start somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Gotta start somewhere. Well, I like where that little nook or cranny is located. I assume it's normal for the probs to start out low three days ahead and slowly increase as things become a little more certain? In regards to Central Illinois, I'm sure the instability will be there, but the better forcing seems to be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Gotta start somewhere. LOL Nic, I'm in Rockford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Euro surges another low up thru MN on Wed/Thur. And tonight's euro is a foot of snow if it was winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Pretty large day 3 slight with 30% probabilities too. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS INDICATE THAT CIRCULATION AROUND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL AID THE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF A MOIST GULF BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND...BY SUNDAY...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F MAY ADVECT THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PLATEAU REGION. MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...JUST AHEAD OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST...AND SOUTH/ EAST OF A REMNANT CLOSED LOW ACCELERATING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER A RATHER BROAD AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ANTICIPATED WEAK TO MODEST INHIBITION AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR ...WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT/...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...A COUPLE WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SEVERE STORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SUNDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 05/20/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 MKX still seems convinced about chance of severe weather on Sunday, and perhaps Monday. SPC does not seem so bullish, only indicating 5% chances Saturday and Sunday. Given temps will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, dewpoints into the 60s, and there should be a minimal amount of CIN on Sunday night, I tend to believe the local WFO over SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 18z NAM again...east of PIA for sunday evening. I will tkae that turning anyday. DVN is mentioning possible sups but forming into a line. All I know is I can chase sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 18z NAM again...east of PIA for sunday evening. I will tkae that turning anyday. DVN is mentioning possible sups but forming into a line. All I know is I can chase sunday That looks nice...I like that there are no weak spots in the flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 18z NAM again...east of PIA for sunday evening. I will tkae that turning anyday. DVN is mentioning possible sups but forming into a line. All I know is I can chase sunday Is that where you're taking me chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Is that where you're taking me chasing? haha what happened to your NIU central IL tornado crew? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 I actually like south-central Iowa/north-central Missouri for Sunday. Great instability, and better mid level forcing. Just not sure if anything will fire in Illinois, but obviously it's too early to see if there will be any leftover boundaries etc. With the overall synoptic setup further west I'm thinking that's the better bet. Unfortunately with the stronger forcing comes the likelihood that storms will organize into more of a linear wind threat, but there should be a brief window of discrete sups with as much directional shear that will be in place. It's all speculation at this point though. I'm sure things will be tweaked as we get closer. 12z NAM forecast sounding for near Lamoni late Sunday. This is under 3500j/kg of cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Pretty primitive, but the GEM sort of shows what things may look like early Sunday evening. You can almost envision a broken line of sups from Iowa down into Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 I actually like south-central Iowa/north-central Missouri for Sunday. Great instability, and better mid level forcing. Just not sure if anything will fire in Illinois, but obviously it's too early to see if there will be any leftover boundaries etc. With the overall synoptic setup further west I'm thinking that's the better bet. Unfortunately with the stronger forcing comes the likelihood that storms will organize into more of a linear wind threat, but there should be a brief window of discrete sups with as much directional shear that will be in place. It's all speculation at this point though. I'm sure things will be tweaked as we get closer. Your right about the better forcing, stronger mid-level winds further west but the problem with that is you have weaker sfc flow and weaker low-level shear/not as good as a low-level hodograph. Now if we can back the sfc winds under the better mid-level flow than its a different story. Right now just off models alone I like Keokuk, IA as a starting tonight. Def will be up for the new day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Your right about the better forcing, stronger mid-level winds further west but the problem with that is you have weaker sfc flow and weaker low-level shear/not as good as a low-level hodograph. Now if we can back the sfc winds under the better mid-level flow than its a different story. Right now just off models alone I like Keokuk, IA as a starting tonight. Def will be up for the new day 2. Yeah, sure would like to get those better low-level winds further west into the better instability/forcing. Hopefully things line up a little better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 18z GFS near Streator, IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Yeah, sure would like to get those better low-level winds further west into the better instability/forcing. Hopefully things line up a little better as we get closer. Ya looking more at the 18z NAM id be near the GBG/MQB area. the cap is breakable and you can see on the H7 RH plots, that the model showing some pretty good ascent taking place in that area. Also there isn't that much of a difference in the H5 flow between southern IA over into central IL, maybe 5-10kts difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 18z GFS near Streator, IL... dang..40kts just off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Will damaging winds be a likely mode of severe as far as north as S. Wisconsin? MKX alluded to a potential damaging wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 The 18z GFS has a stronger s/w and is hinting at a confluent axis ahead of the front in southeast IA around BRL up through DVN.. also, please give the LLJ the GFS has rather than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 0z NAM in the Sterling/Princeton/La Salle/Amboy area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 0z NAM in the Sterling/Princeton/La Salle/Amboy area... hahaha wow I just texted you the wind profile/hodo just south of Sterling is damn nice, too funny. The 0z NAM develops a line of storms at 18z in eastern IA which races east to chicagoland but quickly destablizes behind this small complex and then lights up from DBQ on down into MO by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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