Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The trends were obviously very good on this run. Now that being said, I'm afraid that we're just in the wrong spot. The initial clipper impulse might give 3-6" snows to DC proper, but then by the time the ULL captures it and hooks it back, it'll be too late for us, and SNE might cash in. Anyone else feel the same way? 3-6?! You got Yoda excited in our subforum dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 3-6?! You got Yoda excited in our subforum dude. lol, well I think given the recent trends, it's certainly a possibility. The shortwave continues to trend stronger each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 3-6?! You got Yoda excited in our subforum dude. *bounces around* Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 lol, well I think given the recent trends, it's certainly a possibility. The shortwave continues to trend stronger each run. Don't tease us DC folks I can't argue with you there, though. The trends are definitely looking good. Hopefully we won't see a situation where it all reverses or halts on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 18z dgex http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Road trip to DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Doug and John are right on with this setup. It can really only trend better for the mid-Atlantic at this stage of the game in terms of the Pacific pieces being realized/getting sampled better. That means a more robust shortwave with our clipper (which the models are trending towards), and better ridging along the west coast which kind of goes hand in hand with the first part in allowing the wave to amplify more. For us, we need to start seeing big shifts in the cold ULL on top of us and to our northeast in that timeframe. It seems at this juncture we are quickly running out of time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Doug and John are right on with this setup. It can really only trend better for the mid-Atlantic at this stage of the game in terms of the Pacific pieces being realized/getting sampled better. That means a more robust shortwave with our clipper (which the models are trending towards), and better ridging along the west coast which kind of goes hand in hand with the first part in allowing the wave to amplify more. For us, we need to start seeing big shifts in the cold ULL on top of us and to our northeast in that timeframe. It seems at this juncture we are quickly running out of time for that. the 18z, made a little jump towards making the vortex not as strong. Wouldn't a stornger shortwave though also trend further north to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 here are the 18z indiv ens runs http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm not sure how much better it will trend because it's not too far out there for any huge changes to occur. I mean we're only talking about 3-3 1/2 days or so. It's a shame because if the Euro is correct, this will be our only shot at some snow. The Euro is already showing a warm up in the future and I bet the gfs will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm not sure how much better it will trend because it's not too far out there for any huge changes to occur. I mean we're only talking about 3-3 1/2 days or so. It's a shame because if the Euro is correct, this will be our only shot at some snow. The Euro is already showing a warm up in the future and I bet the gfs will follow. 0z was very cold, i wouldnt base that off one run of the euro, esp in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It makes sense why it would warm up, the blocking disappears. It's pretty much the only thing that could save us from a disastrous winter, but look how the NAO is expected to jump to positive. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It makes sense why it would warm up, the blocking disappears. It's pretty much the only thing that could save us from a disastrous winter, but look how the NAO is expected to jump to positive. http://www.cpc.noaa....index_ensm.html while i do agree we will get into a warm pattern, i just dont think so yet. The euro ens dont say a warm pattern at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 It makes sense why it would warm up, the blocking disappears. It's pretty much the only thing that could save us from a disastrous winter, but look how the NAO is expected to jump to positive. http://www.cpc.noaa....index_ensm.html Never trust long range modeling if it's been jumping around a fair amount. Plus it's a La Nina which some have said is a bit tougher on the numerical weather prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 granted this is the 384 hour gfs, but a lot of the ens are building back the nao big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 granted this is the 384 hour gfs, but a lot of the ens are building back the nao big time This makes sense considering the NAO has been consistently negative with intermittent neutral+ spikes. No reason for this pattern to discontinue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol Except look how much room there is for the trough to amplify in that synoptic setup. Doesn't exist here. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_054.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol Similar sure, especially with the surface features. But the downstream trof axis is much further north in that depiction, allowing significantly more room for a stronger modeled s/w to raise heights along and up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Similar sure, especially with the surface features. But the downstream trof axis is much further north in that depiction, allowing significantly more room for a stronger modeled s/w to raise heights along and up the coast. Precisely. Also, check out the 200mb jet streak. We have strong northwest upper level winds this time owing to the vortex/ULL being further south. It's just way too tight and the wavelengths don't really support anything getting into our latitude unless we see some significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Except look how much room there is for the trough to amplify in that synoptic setup. Doesn't exist here. http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_054.shtml yeah the upper level setup was wayy more favorable for that storm to become a blockbuster, but when i looked back, the surface was almost exactly the same as what it had today at 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 check this out -- http://www.nco.ncep....2/fp0_078.shtml <-------- this is the GFS at hr 78 last year before 12/19. Its almost exactly what it has now lol The 500 mb flow is much better, more speration.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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