18z Models 12/1/10

[LVblizzard]

Through 72 the shortwave looks sharper than 12z on the NAM, no visible differences in surface reflection though.

[ag3]

Looks like a nice little storm for DC area, according to NAM.

[earthlight]

The NAM remains very robust with the initial shortwave..at 81 hours there's a 1004mb surface low in West Virginia

[tombo82685]

Through 72 the shortwave looks sharper than 12z on the NAM, no visible differences in surface reflection though.

to me it doesnt look like its digging as much to me, the back side of the energy is flatter, which won't pump as much ridge out ahead of it

[lab94]

Well, The Nam yesterday had me getting 0.42" of rain today. I ended up with 2.81" Just saying.....

[tombo82685]

low closing off, or starting to at hr 78

[Alpha5]

DC snow

[LVblizzard]

Congrats mid-atlantic - again:

[earthlight]

to me it doesnt look like its digging as much to me, the back side of the energy is flatter, which won't pump as much ridge out ahead of it

It's pretty much the same if you ask me..the shortwave is a bit more amplified and it's also important to note the ridging is better positioned back over the intermountain west as well.

[ag3]

NAM is very nice for DC area.

[isnice]

When was the last time Richmond was the winner from a clipper system in La Nina? When was the last time Richmond was the winner from a clipper period?

[Dsnowx53]

I think the shortwave was a bit stronger than 12z, but the confluence was also a hair stronger.

Still very interesting potential on the NAM. We'd obviously have to hope for a phase in future frames.

[mattinpa]

Sim radar from the NAM at 84 hours has decent precip going up to almost the MD/PA line. Any other model have this?

[MJO812]

Nam continues bringing this shortwave north. It is by itself though. At 84 hours, it doesn't look like it's going to go OTS. Trough looks like it wants to go negative at the coast.

[tombo82685]

heres the eta, pretty similar to nam

[tombo82685]

if we can get that low to close off that would be better for a northern track. The sref members, the ones with close to a closed low are the more northern outcomes.

[jrodd321]

Don't clippers normally track more northerly than progged?

Looks good though on the NAM!

[Sundog]

Feels like we're just continuing on like last winter never ended. A clipper in Virginia in early December in a strong La Nina! I love it.

[MJO812]

This run looks slightly north than the 12z run.

Feels like we're just continuing on like last winter never ended. A clipper in Virginia in early December in a strong La Nina! I love it.

Then when January comes, we will see Lake Cutters

[soadforecaster]

it will be fun to see the extended version of the nam "DGEX"

[eduggs]

Very consistent from the NAM. Signaling a nice stripe of moderate snow from the ohio valley across to the Delmarva.

Something has to change with the modeled longwave trof to our north for this thing to affect areas north of Mason-Dixon. We need the whole structure to shift northward or larger spacing/longer wavelength. Or maybe a slightly sharper s/w ridge between the two systems could raise heights just enough to nudge everything northward. The block isn't going to suddenly relax, so largescale changes are likely to be minor.

Unfortunately the SREF members are mostly less impressive than the op NAM. It's difficult to imagine where this thing has room to improve. Chances are the NAM will swing back towards other guidance, but it's exciting to track nonetheless.

[tombo82685]

Very consistent from the NAM. Signaling a nice stripe of moderate snow from the ohio valley across to the Delmarva.

Something has to change with the modeled longwave trof to our north for this thing to affect areas north of Mason-Dixon. We need the whole structure to shift northward or larger spacing/longer wavelength. Or maybe a slightly sharper s/w ridge between the two systems could raise heights just enough to nudge everything northward. The block isn't going to suddenly relax, so largescale changes are likely to be minor.

Unfortunately the SREF members are mostly less impressive than the op NAM. It's difficult to imagine where this thing has room to improve. Chances are the NAM will swing back towards other guidance, but it's exciting to track nonetheless.

yea i agree, i think 0z you will see this start to swing south more so, but it still creates excitement, even though most of probably think its out to lunch, unless the 18z gfs comes in better.

[ag3]

GGEM Ensemble Mean likes DC area as well:

[Voyager]

NAM is very nice for DC area.

If that image isn't almost a carbon copy of what we saw last winter with regard to storms, I don't know what is.

[LetItSnowInPhilly]

Stronger clipper with every run....and its not REALLY the NAM at 84 hours in regards to the strength...the NAM begins to show differences in strength vs. other models around 54 hours.

[MJO812]

If that image isn't almost a carbon copy of what we saw last winter with regard to storms, I don't know what is.

This pattern is acting like an El Nino pattern

[eduggs]

yea i agree, i think 0z you will see this start to swing south more so, but it still creates excitement, even though most of probably think its out to lunch, unless the 18z gfs comes in better.

Yeah. A significant move by the GFS would be huge. But I think the GFS and NAM will eventually edge toward each other. The DC area has a decent shot with this.

[Alpha5]

Yeah. A significant move by the GFS would be huge. But I think the GFS and NAM will eventually edge toward each other. The DC area has a decent shot with this.

Yeah and thats about it IMO

[LetItSnowInPhilly]

18z GFS has begun (I assume)

[tombo82685]

yea im out to 33 hrs