Spring Pattern Hinting At 2011 East Coast Hurricane Landfall Potential

[Ellinwood]

One point in his favor (though he suggests that my way of showing this is wrong) is that, even though the height anoms in the north-central Atlantic on that map I posted are not actually above normal, you do have anomalous easterly flow due to below normal heights to the south couple with "normal" heights to the north. The anomalous wind flow does indeed suggest a better chance for an E.C. hit even though it's not as easy to pick out by the height anoms themselves, since we're tuned to look for above normal heights rather than picturing the anomalous flow. This map shows it better.

Basically, the flow in those years for systems north of the Caribbean was geared more toward the East Coast than a typical year.

That's MUCH better... it was difficult to get that out of the 500 height anomaly maps, but now that you've pointed it out it makes sense.

[Mallow]

One point in his favor (though he suggests that my way of showing this is wrong) is that, even though the height anoms in the north-central Atlantic on that map I posted are not actually above normal, you do have anomalous easterly flow due to below normal heights to the south couple with "normal" heights to the north. The anomalous wind flow does indeed suggest a better chance for an E.C. hit even though it's not as easy to pick out by the height anoms themselves, since we're tuned to look for above normal heights rather than picturing the anomalous flow. This map shows it better.

Basically, the flow in those years for systems north of the Caribbean was geared more toward the East Coast than a typical year.

The signal is weak, but you're right, there's a signal there.

[bluewave]

Because there are few similarities between your analogs in that period (do a composite mean to show what I mean), two weeks is still probably too short a time period to say anything conclusive (though if there is a strong signal, it's getting arguably more useful).

Pretty much every summer is going to have a pattern which "favors" east coast landfalls at some point. The key is to show that it's a general monthly or seasonal pattern, in which case the chances of hurricanes being timed just right to landfall along the east coast is increased for the month/season. This is because hurricanes, by nature, are chaotic, small-scale features. They aren't going to time themselves consistently with short-time-scale mid-latitude troughs and ridges. You're problem is therefore more of a statistical question--are ridges during peak hurricane season (Aug-Sep) more likely to exist in the right places? Transient ridges that just so happened to time themselves perfectly with east coast landfalls in the past don't help you answer that statistical question, because neither the transient ridges nor the hurricanes themselves can be said to be "the same ones" that occur in another year.

But the timing was important in determining the actual landfalls which was similar to the analogs that I chose.

[Mallow]

But the timing was important in determining the actual landfalls which was similar to the analogs that I chose.

Timing is always important, in all east coast landfalls... not just your analogs.

All I'm pointing out is that you have yet to show how your analogs show anything about timing. For example, 1985 had Gloria... timing lined up for that one, but it's not one of your analogs. 1999 had Floyd... timing lined up for that one, but it's not one of your analogs. There are years with similar spring patterns (some even moreso) that never really had any good east coast landfalls. What makes your analogs show that timing is going to line up properly?

I can't really break it down more simplistically than that.

[Cary]

Wrong.I showed that wasn't the case with my composites that i posted.

No, he is correct. Ellinwood's post showed just the two analogs.