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18z models

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

first guess 1-3 for me?

How about T-2"? that would be my first guess as I still don't trust the nam at that range. While the GFS did trend towards the nam. there is no guarantee that the stronger trend by the gfs will continue and the euro actually trended the other way. Plus, Clipper systems are often disappointing. When the euro and gfs continue to trend stronger, than I''d up my cowardly guess.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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Looks like everything is moving in the right direction. Seems like 2009 again in that regard. There's something freaky about this Dec. 5 date.

Just don't go postal if the models trend away from us. :P

yeah it is kinda odd.. there is a definite mini peak around the 5th when looking at days with snow 1"+ at dca. kevin ambrose and i have a section about it in our snow book... going to post it to CWG tomorrow probably.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

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How about T-2"? that would be my first guess as I still don't trust the nam at that range. While the GFS did trend towards the nam. there is no guarantee that the stronger trend by the gfs will continue and the euro actually trended the other way. Plus, Clipper systems are often disappointing. When the euro and gfs continue to trend stronger, than I''d up my cowardly guess.

You have mentioned in the past that a clipper often times ends up more North when all is said and done so I guess what we need is for this thing to actually gain some strength.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
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You have mentioned in the past that a clipper often times ends up more North when all is said and done so I guess what we need is for this thing to actually gain some strength.

We need a realy good track for the low and for the original trough/vortex that already off the east coast to be a little farther north and east to allow the flow to back. That would allow the precip stripe to edge northward. That's certainly possible but so is a system with a euro-like track.

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Ian

Ian

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I'm 62, I can't remember things like that. Id' bet the nam was falsely bullish a few times.

isnt there a site that has archives? i know i can get the composite setup but i'd sorta like to see the model runs... it seems at least slightly similar. nina, clipper going to our south etc.

t-2 is a wiser call im sure. im assuming there will be some north trend, but the precip etc is certainly not a given.

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Analog96

Analog96

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How about T-2"? that would be my first guess as I still don't trust the nam at that range. While the GFS did trend towards the nam. there is no guarantee that the stronger trend by the gfs will continue and the euro actually trended the other way. Plus, Clipper systems are often disappointing. When the euro and gfs continue to trend stronger, than I''d up my cowardly guess.

One thing about clippers, though, is that they do tend to produce high snow ratios, because of the region they come from.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
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NJ Winter from the Philly forum

Doug and John are right on with this setup. It can really only trend better for the mid-Atlantic at this stage of the game in terms of the Pacific pieces being realized/getting sampled better. That means a more robust shortwave with our clipper (which the models are trending towards), and better ridging along the west coast which kind of goes hand in hand with the first part in allowing the wave to amplify more.

For us, we need to start seeing big shifts in the cold ULL on top of us and to our northeast in that timeframe. It seems at this juncture we are quickly running out of time for that.

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Dr No

Dr No

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After looking at the 18Z GFS ensemble members, this event is on the cusp of being a more significant potential than ever thought for us and areas along the coast further north. (even if it is just a couple inches) Many want to do a tilt and hug.

If verifies, the GFS and others are probably too surpresive for next week's threat as well.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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isnt there a site that has archives? i know i can get the composite setup but i'd sorta like to see the model runs... it seems at least slightly similar. nina, clipper going to our south etc.

t-2 is a wiser call im sure. im assuming there will be some north trend, but the precip etc is certainly not a given.

I used to know of a site for the GFS but don't know of one for the NAM though I know that emc does archive them and that they are available if you know where to look and how to download the data. Unfortunately, I've been away to long to recall where and how.

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