usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 first guess 1-3 for me? How about T-2"? that would be my first guess as I still don't trust the nam at that range. While the GFS did trend towards the nam. there is no guarantee that the stronger trend by the gfs will continue and the euro actually trended the other way. Plus, Clipper systems are often disappointing. When the euro and gfs continue to trend stronger, than I''d up my cowardly guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 What did the models look like in this range in 2007? I'm 62, I can't remember things like that. Id' bet the nam was falsely bullish a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Looks like everything is moving in the right direction. Seems like 2009 again in that regard. There's something freaky about this Dec. 5 date. Just don't go postal if the models trend away from us. yeah it is kinda odd.. there is a definite mini peak around the 5th when looking at days with snow 1"+ at dca. kevin ambrose and i have a section about it in our snow book... going to post it to CWG tomorrow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 How about T-2"? that would be my first guess as I still don't trust the nam at that range. While the GFS did trend towards the nam. there is no guarantee that the stronger trend by the gfs will continue and the euro actually trended the other way. Plus, Clipper systems are often disappointing. When the euro and gfs continue to trend stronger, than I''d up my cowardly guess. You have mentioned in the past that a clipper often times ends up more North when all is said and done so I guess what we need is for this thing to actually gain some strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You have mentioned in the past that a clipper often times ends up more North when all is said and done so I guess what we need is for this thing to actually gain some strength. We need a realy good track for the low and for the original trough/vortex that already off the east coast to be a little farther north and east to allow the flow to back. That would allow the precip stripe to edge northward. That's certainly possible but so is a system with a euro-like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm 62, I can't remember things like that. Id' bet the nam was falsely bullish a few times. isnt there a site that has archives? i know i can get the composite setup but i'd sorta like to see the model runs... it seems at least slightly similar. nina, clipper going to our south etc. t-2 is a wiser call im sure. im assuming there will be some north trend, but the precip etc is certainly not a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 How about T-2"? that would be my first guess as I still don't trust the nam at that range. While the GFS did trend towards the nam. there is no guarantee that the stronger trend by the gfs will continue and the euro actually trended the other way. Plus, Clipper systems are often disappointing. When the euro and gfs continue to trend stronger, than I''d up my cowardly guess. One thing about clippers, though, is that they do tend to produce high snow ratios, because of the region they come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 One thing about clippers, though, is that they do tend to produce high snow ratios, because of the region they come from. you forgot the [yoda] [/yoda] tags. sorry in advance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 18z UKIE for reference... I can't seem to get the 5h for this hour pattern from my site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Based on trends from earlier in the year, I'd argue for a bit more than 1-3, perhaps more like 15-20 just to be on the safe side. Likely get a blizzard warning as well. Nice early season appetizer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 18z UKIE for reference... I can't seem to get the 5h for this hour pattern from my site The UKMET is as useless as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 NJ Winter from the Philly forum Doug and John are right on with this setup. It can really only trend better for the mid-Atlantic at this stage of the game in terms of the Pacific pieces being realized/getting sampled better. That means a more robust shortwave with our clipper (which the models are trending towards), and better ridging along the west coast which kind of goes hand in hand with the first part in allowing the wave to amplify more. For us, we need to start seeing big shifts in the cold ULL on top of us and to our northeast in that timeframe. It seems at this juncture we are quickly running out of time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Based on trends from earlier in the year, I'd argue for a bit more than 1-3, perhaps more like 15-20 just to be on the safe side. Likely get a blizzard warning as well. Nice early season appetizer! If only that was true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 18z UKIE for reference... I can't seem to get the 5h for this hour pattern from my site Solidly in the orange shading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Has anyone called LWX to see when they are issuing the WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Has anyone called LWX to see when they are issuing the WSW? 1 minute. Blizzard warnings going up too!!!!!11111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 no worries weekend rule Dec 5th nuff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 no worries weekend rule Dec 5th nuff said Still waiting on the EE rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I love december 5! lol Im thinking 2-4 maybe 3-6 if we get lucky. Lets hope it was like that dec. 5th clipper a few yrs ago that dropped way more than what the models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The UKMET is as useless as always. True, but it can still give us a clue where it might be headed at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I love december 5! lol Im thinking 2-4 maybe 3-6 if we get lucky. Lets hope it was like that dec. 5th clipper a few yrs ago that dropped way more than what the models showed. Well with your measurements you'll probably measure 7.5 at your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 P004 please http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html (18z GFS individual ensembles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 P004 please http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html (18z GFS individual ensembles) Looks like the 12z euro from Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 P004 please http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html (18z GFS individual ensembles) 5, 9, 10 don't look too bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 first guess 1-3 for me? is that for the 2010-11 winter or this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 After looking at the 18Z GFS ensemble members, this event is on the cusp of being a more significant potential than ever thought for us and areas along the coast further north. (even if it is just a couple inches) Many want to do a tilt and hug. If verifies, the GFS and others are probably too surpresive for next week's threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 isnt there a site that has archives? i know i can get the composite setup but i'd sorta like to see the model runs... it seems at least slightly similar. nina, clipper going to our south etc. t-2 is a wiser call im sure. im assuming there will be some north trend, but the precip etc is certainly not a given. I used to know of a site for the GFS but don't know of one for the NAM though I know that emc does archive them and that they are available if you know where to look and how to download the data. Unfortunately, I've been away to long to recall where and how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Archives: GFS: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/MAPS.html I can only find the NAM back through 2009: http://charlie.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/NAMModelArchive.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 No clown maps posted yet? from the 18Z NAM, with obviously a bit more to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Final Call Virga for the beltway . T-1 for central and southern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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