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NY Capital Region Autumn Obs/Discussion


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  • 3 weeks later...

After some heat and quite a bit of humidity the last few weeks...today and tomorrow look absolutely gorgeous! Highs near 80 in the valley with low humidity. Temps comfortably back in the 50s tonight...upper 40s looking likely in the 'dacks.

Mid-August through late October easily my favorite time of year. Weather can be a bit of a yawner unless there's a landfalling hurricane to track...but the combination of short-lived late summer heat and increasingly frequent cool downs, arrival of football season, fall foliage, county fairs, corn mazes, and the building anticipation of the the first snowfall makes for an overall wonderful time of year thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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Barely touched 70 here so far. Started pretty sunny but so called fair wx clouds have built to the point where we are BKN now.

The wind has been pretty gusty at times.

After some heat and quite a bit of humidity the last few weeks...today and tomorrow look absolutely gorgeous! Highs near 80 in the valley with low humidity. Temps comfortably back in the 50s tonight...upper 40s looking likely in the 'dacks.

Mid-August through late October easily my favorite time of year. Weather can be a bit of a yawner unless there's a landfalling hurricane to track...but the combination of short-lived late summer heat and increasingly frequent cool downs, arrival of football season, fall foliage, county fairs, corn mazes, and the building anticipation of the the first snowfall makes for an overall wonderful time of year thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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We had a very nice T storm around 1:30-2:00 PM and it crashed the temperature from the high of 77 to 64! Now a mere 68 and the sky has darkened again with drops starting and some rumbles.

A lightning strike either hit the house or hit nearby and ricoched off it. I was touching a window closing it and felt a slight shock as the strike it. It felt like the kind of minor shock you get from static electricity.

Watch up for Albany on south...warning just west of here right now. Could be a nice storm here if it holds together

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Another active day. Round 1 just moved through Albany with a few warnings. Nothing crazy here...had some occasional thunder for about 90 minutes and a 15-20 minute downpour. Satellite shows things clearing out nicely to our west ahead of round 2 which is getting its act together back in WNY. Watch now up till 9pm tonight.

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Yep round #1 is history except down into the Mid HV where a tornado warning has been out in Dutchess. They were just forming as they moved through here before noon.

Another active day. Round 1 just moved through Albany with a few warnings. Nothing crazy here...had some occasional thunder for about 90 minutes and a 15-20 minute downpour. Satellite shows things clearing out nicely to our west ahead of round 2 which is getting its act together back in WNY. Watch now up till 9pm tonight.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 212034Z - 212230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795 CONTINUES. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITHIN PORTIONS OF WW 795 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS A SPEED MAXIMUM...EMANATING FROM THE APPROACHING 50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET...NOSES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 23-01Z...MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND/WEST AND NORTH OF THE NEW YORK CAPITAL DISTRICT. ..KERR.. 08/21/2011 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42227579 42967493 43537458 44617435 44857330 43727274 42707289 41847361 41687434 41847473 42227579

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEW YORK STATE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795... VALID 212034Z - 212230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795 CONTINUES. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITHIN PORTIONS OF WW 795 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS A SPEED MAXIMUM...EMANATING FROM THE APPROACHING 50-70 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET...NOSES ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 23-01Z...MODELS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS AROUND/WEST AND NORTH OF THE NEW YORK CAPITAL DISTRICT. ..KERR.. 08/21/2011 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42227579 42967493 43537458 44617435 44857330 43727274 42707289 41847361 41687434 41847473 42227579

I don't know...south and east of Albany looking better at this point. Earlier convection seems to maybe stabalized things a bit from Albany north and west...note the current lack of convection or decaying convection N & W of I-88. I could seem some of those cells to our south getting their act together a bit more...but again...those look to be a threat south and east of the area.

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I don't know...south and east of Albany looking better at this point. Earlier convection seems to maybe stabalized things a bit from Albany north and west...note the current lack of convection or decaying convection N & W of I-88. I could seem some of those cells to our south getting their act together a bit more...but again...those look to be a threat south and east of the area.

I should say...from Albany S & E...I could see them getting up to about Albany.

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  • 3 weeks later...

My low was 37 out here.... Tonight should be a bit colder so what the British call a "ground frost" seems very possible even if we don't get to 32 at 2M.

RE: Apple picking ...the most popular place for that in ALB area is Indian Ladder Farm between Voorheesville and Altamont on route 156. They always have a nice set up and farm stand, cafe etc. at the farm.

first frost and freezes tonight away from the valley and north of saratoga. perfect apple picking weather tomorrow! fall is here!

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My low was 37 out here.... Tonight should be a bit colder so what the British call a "ground frost" seems very possible even if we don't get to 32 at 2M.

RE: Apple picking ...the most popular place for that in ALB area is Indian Ladder Farm between Voorheesville and Altamont on route 156. They always have a nice set up and farm stand, cafe etc. at the farm.

Yeah someone at work mentioned that place. But my wife has a friend in Clifton Park...think we're going to Bowman's. Either way...looking forward to the weather this weekend! Fall is easily my favorite season.

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Yeah just starting out here at 1k feet west of KALB. A lot of trees are getting a little rust here and there, but 90% green... I bet it will start to move fast in the next couple weeks. I heard the high peaks in the Dacks are like 1/3rd. They tend to peak by very early October.

How is the fall foliage looking across the capital region at this point? Minimal at this point, correct?

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Yeah just starting out here at 1k feet west of KALB. A lot of trees are getting a little rust here and there, but 90% green... I bet it will start to move fast in the next couple weeks. I heard the high peaks in the Dacks are like 1/3rd. They tend to peak by very early October.

Nice, I'll be up there in a few weeks.

I'll check in again in a week or so. :thumbsup:

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I have also heard that Bowmans is nice - just the wrong side of the CD for us. We are due west of KALB by about 25 miles.....

e name='Mr. Windcredible!' timestamp='1316181866' post='969407']

Yeah someone at work mentioned that place. But my wife has a friend in Clifton Park...think we're going to Bowman's. Either way...looking forward to the weather this weekend! Fall is easily my favorite season.

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  • 2 weeks later...

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