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NC/VA Sunday Snow Threat


MillzPirate

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if you look at that model spread at 24 hrs looks like a hic-up in the guidance. They might have gone out on their own there and based on the SLP anaylasis looks like the low is a bit stretched right there.

Since the low is weak, it seems like it should be following the flow better and it would seem that being pressed between that the two stronger highs to the north and the weaker highs in the gulf would cause it to sink south. Personally, it looks like HPC simply adjusted the track for a natural La Nina track (which has some ridging over Texas) instead of looking at it frame-by-frame.

That map is for the 0z runs and I just looked at the 12z runs and looking at the 12 hr. mark (which was the 24 hr. mark depicted by HPC), the GFS still has the low in southwest Kansas.

I'm not a met, however, so maybe I'm thinking about this all wrong.

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Looks pretty darn good to me. I personally think you may went a little too far south with snow in NC, but other than that I think it has a pretty good chance of verifying.

Well after I come back from being out this evening I will take a look at what the latest data tells me and make tweaks if needed. This will especially be the case if the trend keeps speeding things up.

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Snowfall map off of SV based on the NAM have a 2 inch (max) swath going from RDU along I-40 north roughly (think more north then along I-40 going east to west). I would love to think we could get something out of this but think about last year even when we had really good conditions folks in the CLT I-85 corridor still couldn't cash in. I think SBUWX23 is right on the money.

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Here we go ------------ NWS forecast for my area :snowman: My first WWA :thumbsup:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM

EST SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS

AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN

SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2

INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE

OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND

10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

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Snowfall map off of SV based on the NAM have a 2 inch (max) swath going from RDU along I-40 north roughly (think more north then along I-40 going east to west). I would love to think we could get something out of this but think about last year even when we had really good conditions folks in the CLT I-85 corridor still couldn't cash in. I think SBUWX23 is right on the money.

NCZ071-040900-

MECKLENBURG-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE

348 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2010

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN

THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

60 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

30 MPH.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

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NCZ071-040900-

MECKLENBURG-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE

348 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2010

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN

THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

60 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

30 MPH.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

I am dreaming that I'm totally wrong. Knowing that I don't like our odds at all this will probably end of over producing and I'll be painted the fool.

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KILM not writing off a slight chance of a few flakes even on the coast saturday night

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE

SWIFTLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT

FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S

TO LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER

TO MIDDLE 30S WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE

MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECT LOWERING AND

THICKENING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY

NIGHT. TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE A COLD AND LIGHT

RAIN WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE NOTED IN THE CRITICAL -10 TO -15 DEGREE

CELSIUS ZONE WHERE SNOW FLAKES GROW. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE MOISTURE FOR SNOW WILL BE GONE. AT

THIS POINT...A LIGHT BUT COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED. THERE STILL IS A

SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW COULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT IF THE

MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND/OR THE ASSOCIATED

SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCES MORE VIGOROUS LIFT THAN CURRENTLY

EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Here we go ------------ NWS forecast for my area :snowman: My first WWA :thumbsup:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM

EST SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS

AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN

SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2

INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE

OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND

10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

Be up there shortly!:snowman:

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