SBUWX23 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 A non event here in the south is NO flakes flying at all Just sayin I lived in Raleigh for 16 years I know that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 A non event here in the south is NO flakes flying at all Just sayin He's from the RDU area and went to NC State. He has only been in NY for a couple of years. Believe me when I say he know's events and non-events for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 A non event here in the south is NO flakes flying at all Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I lived in Raleigh for 16 years I know that! My bad......... lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 if i were going to chase the NWFS what would be the best position starting sunday to do so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 18z NAM looks like it has sped up some. yep, but still consistent in painting a quarter inch swath, just shifted north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbrad Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 if i were going to chase the NWFS what would be the best position starting sunday to do so? Beech, Sugar or Mt Mitchell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 if you look at that model spread at 24 hrs looks like a hic-up in the guidance. They might have gone out on their own there and based on the SLP anaylasis looks like the low is a bit stretched right there. Since the low is weak, it seems like it should be following the flow better and it would seem that being pressed between that the two stronger highs to the north and the weaker highs in the gulf would cause it to sink south. Personally, it looks like HPC simply adjusted the track for a natural La Nina track (which has some ridging over Texas) instead of looking at it frame-by-frame. That map is for the 0z runs and I just looked at the 12z runs and looking at the 12 hr. mark (which was the 24 hr. mark depicted by HPC), the GFS still has the low in southwest Kansas. I'm not a met, however, so maybe I'm thinking about this all wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Beech, Sugar or Mt Mitchell Is the Blue Ridge Parkway even open this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Beech, Sugar or Mt Mitchell And you'd be better off going up tomorrow...heaviest snow will be Sat aftn and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 yep, but still consistent in painting a quarter inch swath, just shifted north a bit Before certain GA posters get excited remember temps are way too warm for snow outside the mountains here. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I will update my map again late tonight but I am getting a bit of a bad feeling I may have overdone my first call somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 DOT has already pre-treated the bridges here. My tax dollars at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I will update my map again late tonight but I am getting a bit of a bad feeling I may have overdone my first call somewhat. Looks pretty darn good to me. I personally think you may went a little too far south with snow in NC, but other than that I think it has a pretty good chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Looks pretty darn good to me. I personally think you may went a little too far south with snow in NC, but other than that I think it has a pretty good chance of verifying. Well after I come back from being out this evening I will take a look at what the latest data tells me and make tweaks if needed. This will especially be the case if the trend keeps speeding things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Is the Blue Ridge Parkway even open this time of year? It's open, but they shut it down during snow events, and if it stays it stays shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 so this is where everyone went after eastern wx shut down. greetings from the beach, my carolina friends, cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 DOT has already pre-treated the bridges here. My tax dollars at work. kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I like to throw chunks at him every once and awhile so as to keep him honest, which it obviously did this time... He is like this on other boards too. Most of his posts end up with the response,but I digress it is fun to feed him sometimes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 kiss of death. TRUTH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Snowfall map off of SV based on the NAM have a 2 inch (max) swath going from RDU along I-40 north roughly (think more north then along I-40 going east to west). I would love to think we could get something out of this but think about last year even when we had really good conditions folks in the CLT I-85 corridor still couldn't cash in. I think SBUWX23 is right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Here we go ------------ NWS forecast for my area My first WWA ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Snowfall map off of SV based on the NAM have a 2 inch (max) swath going from RDU along I-40 north roughly (think more north then along I-40 going east to west). I would love to think we could get something out of this but think about last year even when we had really good conditions folks in the CLT I-85 corridor still couldn't cash in. I think SBUWX23 is right on the money. NCZ071-040900- MECKLENBURG- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE 348 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2010 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 NCZ071-040900- MECKLENBURG- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE 348 PM EST FRI DEC 3 2010 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. I am dreaming that I'm totally wrong. Knowing that I don't like our odds at all this will probably end of over producing and I'll be painted the fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I am dreaming that I'm totally wrong. Knowing that I don't like our odds at all this will probably end of over producing and I'll be painted the fool. I hope you end up a different color then. I just dont have much faith you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 KILM not writing off a slight chance of a few flakes even on the coast saturday night SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH DAYS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECT LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE A COLD AND LIGHT RAIN WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE NOTED IN THE CRITICAL -10 TO -15 DEGREE CELSIUS ZONE WHERE SNOW FLAKES GROW. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE MOISTURE FOR SNOW WILL BE GONE. AT THIS POINT...A LIGHT BUT COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED. THERE STILL IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW COULD FALL SATURDAY NIGHT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND/OR THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRODUCES MORE VIGOROUS LIFT THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Here we go ------------ NWS forecast for my area My first WWA ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. Be up there shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Glad you found it man. so this is where everyone went after eastern wx shut down. greetings from the beach, my carolina friends, cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 According to the National Weather Service, the average date of the first measurable snowfall in Raleigh is December 21. Last season, the first " measurable snow" fell on December 18, 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Be up there shortly! Come on we'll ride around in the snow, IF it happens ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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