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NC/VA Sunday Snow Threat

MillzPirate

By MillzPirate,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

12z RGEM looks to be in line with the GFS

Looks a little wetter and slower than the GFS to me

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Looks like two rounds, first one heavier and associated with the ul energy, and that exits the coast around 0z. A lighter round two associated with the low developing in sw NC, that precip is along the coastal sections around 6z. This adds support to the possibility of a lee side trough developing.

round 1

round 2

with a lull around 0z for the center part of the state (there are a couple heavier QPF panels in the loop above, just wanted to clearly show the two areas of precip the model shows)

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

Posted
Posted

Interesting:

Snow Number remains at a 3. Snow Number moves up to a 5 for North Carolina

The storm looks like it will develop just too far south to really mess with the Hampton Roads area. The low will form far enough southeast of Hatteras to keep the prec. light and sporadicSaturday night. Flurries are likely...possibly a period of light snow..most likely too light to accumulate. Further south in North Carolina...a dusting to an inch is possible...mainly near and south of the sound. Will send out a special update tomorrow after the new models come in around noon.

Jon Ca

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
Posted

Interesting:

Snow Number remains at a 3. Snow Number moves up to a 5 for North Carolina

The storm looks like it will develop just too far south to really mess with the Hampton Roads area. The low will form far enough southeast of Hatteras to keep the prec. light and sporadicSaturday night. Flurries are likely...possibly a period of light snow..most likely too light to accumulate. Further south in North Carolina...a dusting to an inch is possible...mainly near and south of the sound. Will send out a special update tomorrow after the new models come in around noon.

Jon Ca

Snow number? What is this?

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

Keep coming south baby...but only just a little bit.

I'm with you Burger! Unfortunately I cannot remember the last time CLT received snow from a clipper.... I'm not holding my breath for anything significant but seeing a few flakes in the air would be really nice tomorrow night.

I still am more in the GFS camp and think anyone east of the Mountains won't see much of anything. However a snow weenie like myself can still hopoe :weight_lift:

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Well, at least it looks like we're probably going to see snowfall. We may not see much, if any, accumulations, but seeing snow in early December is always a good thing! Snowman.gif

I'll be in High Point, NC for this even, as opposed to Raleigh, so it looks like I'll be in better position to get something (now watch Raleigh get dumped on, LOL).

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

12z NCEP high res models 48hr QPF

WRF NMM

WRF ARW

Common sense tells me mostly rain with a little bit of snow mixing in here in the Tricities. Looks great for parts of the mountains, but when the low travels north of your location, it's extremely hard to get snow for the valleys - especially in December.

Good luck to all who see the white stuff. As always, some will be happy, some will be disappointed.

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wxbrad

wxbrad

Posted
Posted

Basically what we run as our in house model is a variation of the WRF with some tweaking. Here's the localized high res WRF. No I don't buy these amounts with a NW-SE moving clipper system very rarely is this realized.

M-ATL_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

Especially when you see the consensus of the low track, the snow has been 100-120 miles north of the track so far in the northern plains.

lowtrack_ensembles.gif

202498608.png?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1291408167&Signature=6ue8sS2mHVcFJEIhmw0JieCHZLg%3D

If this track and trend hold up the main snowband would be in VA and extreme northern NC at best. Not much for CLT except snow flurries or snow showers at the tail end. Slight jog south with the track would be needed for accumulating snows further south.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

2:30pm Call Map. If needed I may update once more before the event:

Good luck Jeremy, thanks for the map! :thumbsup: For once Allan was more conservative, but that might just be because he released his at 9:30am this morning...haha. I would be glad to see 1-2 from this event!

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the thoughts Brad.

Since I will not be at the game this weekend in Boone, I will be rooting for a south jog. However, I also live in the lee, so :rolleyes: I get to watch it go over me..

If this track and trend hold up the main snowband would be in VA and extreme northern NC at best. Not much for CLT except snow flurries or snow showers at the tail end. Slight jog south with the track would be needed for accumulating snows further south.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

NWS RAH seems has no confidence in this system anymore as of 2:30pm...

"WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS THIS

DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING MIXED

PRECIP/PRECIP RATE DRIVEN PHASE OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH

PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FLURRIES AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY EXIT

OFFSHORE WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE

NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...NOT FALLING TO OR BELOW

FREEZING UNTIL THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE."

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

:thumbsup: Looks good, except for maybe the spine of the Apps on the NC/TN border. Where amounts good be quite a bit more than that due to upsloping.

Yeah I could bust there. I may not have brought the max far enough south on that aspect of it. I did try to account for some upsloping though in Northern NC along the TN border. I am sure it could be tweaked here and there but it is a general call. I am hoping I am not going too bold toward the RDU area.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

NWS RAH seems has no confidence in this system anymore as of 2:30pm...

"WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS THIS

DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING MIXED

PRECIP/PRECIP RATE DRIVEN PHASE OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH

PRECIPITATION ENDING AS FLURRIES AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY EXIT

OFFSHORE WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE

NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...NOT FALLING TO OR BELOW

FREEZING UNTIL THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE."

Uh oh looks like I chimed in a bit at odds with them.

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wxbrad

wxbrad

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the thoughts Brad.

Since I will not be at the game this weekend in Boone, I will be rooting for a south jog. However, I also live in the lee, so :rolleyes: I get to watch it go over me..

Yeah based on the track of the low there's just no way you get snow along or south of the track, never seen that happen once. For the piedmont of the Carolinas to see snow we need a GA-Low country SC track, the state line ain't going to cut it and I bet the track is closer to I-40

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mempho

mempho

Posted
Posted

Especially when you see the consensus of the low track, the snow has been 100-120 miles north of the track so far in the northern plains.

Interesting that HPC deviates a good bit from guidance clusters at the 24 hr. mark. Not sure it makes much difference to you guys, but interesting nonetheless.

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wxbrad

wxbrad

Posted
Posted

Interesting that HPC deviates a good bit from guidance clusters at the 24 hr. mark. Not sure it makes much difference to you guys, but interesting nonetheless.

if you look at that model spread at 24 hrs looks like a hic-up in the guidance. They might have gone out on their own there and based on the SLP anaylasis looks like the low is a bit stretched right there.

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