HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the sfc low position on the nam is much better for NC than the gfs. we would want that sfc low to go through northern SC, preferably all this comes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Heres a surface wetbulb map off 12z eta/Nam if anyones interested for Sat. Earls webpage has some pretty good short term modeling links to play around with for free. Maybe Sat will give me chance to try out. Good product, thanks for pointing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Still odd to me to see the bulk of the precip tracking to the south of the vort max track. Maybe this jet streak is the culprit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the sfc low position on the nam is much better for NC than the gfs. we would want that sfc low to go through northern SC, preferably all this comes at night. Got to admit...the NAM raised my eyebrows just a bit, but closer inspection of the thicknesses showed that this is not quite cold enough for most of us. However, this run look almost perfect for the mtns of NC/TN. Might just be up for a chase on this one if later model runs hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 it just aint cold enough without major dynamical cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Got to admit...the NAM raised my eyebrows just a bit, but closer inspection of the thicknesses showed that this is not quite cold enough for most of us. However, this run look almost perfect for the mtns of NC/TN. Might just be up for a chase on this one if later model runs hold serve. It's kinda rare to see a clipper come this far south in early december also. Not that surprising given the NAO though. It's so low that this actually makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Problem with the min originates around 30hrs over the northern plains, and is evident at hour 42 and 48 as it is diving ese. GFS brings the packet down as one piece, on the NAM it is not, maybe a resolution issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 probably going to be a virga storm here by Saturday morning. The GFS is pretty quick with the warm advection moisture, but the low levels should be bone dry. I wouldn't rule out flurries or sleet at times if anything makes it to the ground, before low levels warm up just a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Of course I'll be out of town when this occurs. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 probably going to be a virga storm here by Saturday morning. The GFS is pretty quick with the warm advection moisture, but the low levels should be bone dry. I wouldn't rule out flurries or sleet at times if anything makes it to the ground, before low levels warm up just a little too much. Check your messenger when you get a chance robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbrad Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Here's tonight best analog of the upcoming Clipper system based on the GFS. This storm was from Jan 19, 2000. This the guidance based on the top 15 analogs for the upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 ^ I remember that storm...it snowed up at UNCC but I dont think it snowed here or in center city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the GFS looks a smidge colder for the Monday cold advection. It keeps strong cold advection through the day, so temps won't go anywhere Monday in NC, and very little in SC and GA. Now Shelby looks like it will barely reach freezing on Monday afternoon. If that happens, it would be pretty incredible for so early in December. Hickory and Asheville are a lock on this run to be less than Freezing it appears. By 00Z , -12 is most of westrn and central NC. I may have to dig up last years Jan and Feb outbreak to see what the coldest values were then, this is very impressive cold air. Just glanced a little closer and northern tier counties of GA are also subfreezing for high temps on Monday. Amazing cold shot for so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Matthew East says on his lates blog post that I-40 and north could see some snow. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I am not really excited about this one at all. There is too much working against us this time. 1. Vort max is proged to pass too far north along the NC/VA border 2. Partials are marginal and model soundings show it being dry in a portion dendritic growth zone (upper region). 3. Limited QPF would imply a precip rate driven event would not work out too well 4. Ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation, especially with light snow. I just don't feel good about most clipper-type systems and this is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Matthew East just posted this in the Dec thread. FWIW, the latest run of our in-house RPM (WRF based) is showing considerably less snow east of the mountains than its previous few runs had shown. I agree though, this one bears watching for at least a little trickiness at least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I am not really excited about this one at all. There is too much working against us this time. 1. Vort max is proged to pass too far north along the NC/VA border 2. Partials are marginal and model soundings show it being dry in a portion dendritic growth zone (upper region). 3. Limited QPF would imply a precip rate driven event would not work out too well 4. Ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation, especially with light snow. I just don't feel good about most clipper-type systems and this is one of them. Agree this thing as currently modeled is just blah......the only way it turns into anything is if the models bust and its further south and stronger-----and we all know how oftan storms actually bust in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I am not really excited about this one at all. There is too much working against us this time. 1. Vort max is proged to pass too far north along the NC/VA border 2. Partials are marginal and model soundings show it being dry in a portion dendritic growth zone (upper region). 3. Limited QPF would imply a precip rate driven event would not work out too well 4. Ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation, especially with light snow. I just don't feel good about most clipper-type systems and this is one of them. 12z NAM coming in and it shows > .2 liquid for a good portion of central NC. I do agree with you (don't trust clippers) but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 12z NAM coming in and it shows > .2 liquid for a good portion of central NC. I do agree with you (don't trust clippers) but we can hope. Was just about to comment on the NAM. We would have a light dusting if it's to be believed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I am not really excited about this one at all. There is too much working against us this time. 1. Vort max is proged to pass too far north along the NC/VA border 2. Partials are marginal and model soundings show it being dry in a portion dendritic growth zone (upper region). 3. Limited QPF would imply a precip rate driven event would not work out too well 4. Ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation, especially with light snow. I just don't feel good about most clipper-type systems and this is one of them. I agree with points 2 and 4, but I think the vort max is not really a necessary driving force for the precipitation development with this system. The primary lift will be provided by being on the left exit region of a 110 knot jet streak located over the Midwest. For your third point, I think if the event occurs in the overnight hour periods (which looks more likely for eastern North Carolina) the precipitation rate doesn't have to be as high to get good accumulating snowfall. Sure the warm ground will hurt in this regard, but I don't think its out of the question to expect some minor accumulations as the moisture spreads over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 My snowfall forecast. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/chance-of-snow-saturday-night-across-north-carolina-then-very-cold-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Nam drops .32 in hky with 850's sitting b/n -2 and -4. Also with sfc temps b/n 31 and 34. Would probably be snow, but i haven't seen the bkt soundings yet to verify. This has certainly sparked my interest now. This is going to blitz the mountains and wouldn't be surprised to se 1-2 inches in the foothills if the sfc low placement is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I agree with points 2 and 4, but I think the vort max is not really a necessary driving force for the precipitation development with this system. The primary lift will be provided by being on the right exit region of a 110 knot jet streak located over the Midwest. I hope you mean LEFT exit region. The right exit region is not favorable for upward motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 My snowfall forecast. http://www.examiner....-cold-next-week I'll take that for the first snow in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I agree with points 2 and 4, but I think the vort max is not really a necessary driving force for the precipitation development with this system. The primary lift will be provided by being on the right exit region of a 110 knot jet streak located over the Midwest. For your third point, I think if the event occurs in the overnight hour periods (which looks more likely for eastern North Carolina) the precipitation rate doesn't have to be as high to get good accumulating snowfall. Sure the warm ground will hurt in this regard, but I don't think its out of the question to expect some minor accumulations as the moisture spreads over the region. I agree with your point about the Jet Streak (I think you meant left exit) that would certainly work in our favor as would the overnight timing but I just don't feel comfortable being close to the line with the partials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_SE048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 My snowfall forecast. http://www.examiner....-cold-next-week Allan, 12z NAM looks to shift precip slightly south. Reading it directly it looks like the heaver amounts would actually be a little south of my location. What's your take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 My snowfall forecast. http://www.examiner....-cold-next-week Good read. With the NAO being the way it is, this could be our year for a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I hope you mean LEFT exit region. The right exit region is not favorable for upward motions. I hope your right about this coming north a bit , NAM back to putting down a swath of >0.25" totals. Package come through somewhat consolidated, and the weak vorticity streak present on last nights run, creating the min near the NC VA boarder, is now over MS and weaker. Allan, what type of algorithm do the snow maps on your site use, is it a 10:1 ratio with SN flag on, or something different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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