Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The only thing this comment adds it to your post count I was just waiting for your post because I enjoy them. No need to get snippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z NAm is probably all snow for RDU by about 3z Sunday (10pm), and the whole column is below freezing by 1am (6z). Taken literally probably a dusting for the Triangle and a 1-2 incher for the Va border. Since the system is coming in during the afternoon and evening, boundary layer warmth will be an issue initially. I do think the northern mountains and Va could see light to moderate event. I would take a dusting right about now. Just seeing some flakes in the air would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS thickness supports -SN here, NAM, not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the qpf on the GFS is almost neglible east of the mountains. It has the .10" and greater amounts from around RDU to the east central coast plain , and again around the central and northern mountains. the rest of NC is trace amount. Northeast TN, extreme western VA, and southern 2/3 of WV, and points northwest have a .25" or greater amount, which is fairly typical of clippers,and their 1"-3" snow, possibly some 4" under a good axis.The higher elevations of the western slopes of the Apps should get a good couple inches. Eastern Ky usually gets tops,and southern Wv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the qpf on the GFS is almost neglible east of the mountains. It has the .10" and greater amounts from around RDU to the east central coast plain , and again around the central and northern mountains. the rest of NC is trace amount. Northeast TN, extreme western VA, and southern 2/3 of WV, and points northwest have a .25" or greater amount, which is fairly typical of clippers,and their 1"-3" snow, possibly some 4" under a good axis.The higher elevations of the western slopes of the Apps should get a good couple inches. Eastern Ky usually gets tops,and southern Wv. Yeah, major shadow for those of us in the western piedmont. I never expect anything from a clipper unless it swings far enough south to get BNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah, major shadow for those of us in the western piedmont. I never expect anything from a clipper unless it swings far enough south to get BNA. yeah, on the 3 hour panels I saw several increments of a gap over the western piedmont. The GFS is pretty good at showing downslope. Usually south of 40 doesn't get into any clippers, except possibly the actual cold front when it passes, with sprinkles. Usually we're partly cloudy as warm frontal advection lies right along 40 or north of there, in a nw to se trajectory. The southwest piedmont around where I am could get gusty and much warmer than ares just to the northeast of here. Good observation on BNA..thats usually what I look at too or western Tn. After that, we're in for a lengthy cool spell, so the pattern has finally changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 not much qpf for eastern NC on the GFS but thermal profiles look much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the qpf on the GFS is almost neglible east of the mountains. It has the .10" and greater amounts from around RDU to the east central coast plain , and again around the central and northern mountains. the rest of NC is trace amount. Northeast TN, extreme western VA, and southern 2/3 of WV, and points northwest have a .25" or greater amount, which is fairly typical of clippers,and their 1"-3" snow, possibly some 4" under a good axis.The higher elevations of the western slopes of the Apps should get a good couple inches. Eastern Ky usually gets tops,and southern Wv. This definitely seems to be setting up as an early-season App special. What's new? I love it, but I'm ready to set up a refuge on a high, west-facing slope for my Carolina friends on here who never seem to see snow. Case in point: My girlfriend and I met after she moved from Wilmington, NC, this summer. She has never seen more than three inches of snow at once in her life, which by local standards is a rather disappointing upslope event. I'm hoping she will see her first four-inch plus storm this weekend, between the initial activity and upslope afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 according to the CMC, well be lucky to see a flake or even a sprinkle... not a whole lot to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbrad Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The models are looking interesting with this clipper system no doubt, but these types of system climatologically rarely bring significant snows east of the mountains. I can only 1-2 instances where they have surprised me and hit Raleigh with 1-3" but usually this was deeper into the winter with colder ground and surface temperatures where snowfall was maximized very high snow to liquid ratios. Non-the less it has my full attention now! NAM is going crazy now the the snow QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbrad Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NAM Sounding looks isothermal with some good dynamic cooling changing rain to very wet snow flakes. If the moisture was there and thats a a huge "if" this won't stick with those surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 From MHX for my area Sat night Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 From MHX for my area Sat night Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Same with my area. RDU states that the ground temps will be too high to see any accumulation. I agree, but also I think with a couple of days of daytime temps in the 40s and nights in the 20s everything above ground (trees, cars, etc.) is fare game. Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC533 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-031045-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-533 AM EST THU DEC 2 2010THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILLTRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ONSATURDAY...AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHTPRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKSSOUTHEAST ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. TEMPERATURES MAYBE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOWSATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. DUE TORELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATUREOF ANY PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THISTIME.$$VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think the 'big deal" here is not how much snow anyone gets -- outside of maybe some lite accums in the mountains-- it's just the idea of the first flakes finally falling for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Great point, However, the thought of December or so what "bust" is rolling around here in the SE. - VA that is.. But yes, I would love to see some flakes a flying I think the 'big deal" here is not how much snow anyone gets -- outside of maybe some lite accums in the mountains-- it's just the idea of the first flakes finally falling for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 local met just said maybe some flurries here Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Somebody please change the title of this thread to include TN :angry: Why do we keep being ignored in thread titles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think the 'big deal" here is not how much snow anyone gets -- outside of maybe some lite accums in the mountains-- it's just the idea of the first flakes finally falling for many. I agree, any opportunity to see dendrites falling here is a big deal to me, especially this early in the season, and the first ones... Overnight and early AM QPF maps from some of the guidance, not much to work with, a tenth or two. 6z GFS 6z NAM 3z SREF 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Somebody please change the title of this thread to include TN :angry: Why do we keep being ignored in thread titles? No need to get angry Skip, pm MilzPirate, he started the thread, and is the only one who can edit his first post and update the title. The upcoming first sig upslope event of the season is deserving of it's own thread imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I agree about adding you hardy guys in Tennessee. As we enter December, it might be a good time to look back to February 13th, and the view from my deck. Let's hope we get a few of those days this season. It's 24 here now, and rather frosty outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 No need to get angry Skip, pm MilzPirate, he started the thread, and is the only one who can edit his first post and update the title. The upcoming first sig upslope event of the season is deserving of it's own thread imo... Not angry, just frustrated with threads ignoring most of the SE. But I agree, with the upslope thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I would love to just see some snow falling. And maybe this will lead the way to a bigger storm later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 12z NAM looks to be coming south, 300mb jet streak is deeper compared to the past couple runs and slightly stronger... Edit: takes the heaviest (not that it is heavy) axis from the NC-VA boarder on past runs and know puts it firmly in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 ^yup- at 66 hours most of the precip is now from the Triangle south...as opposed to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 ^yup- at 66 hours most of the precip is now from the Triangle south...as opposed to north. At some point we need this trend to stop, or we may need to rename this thread SC snow threat. This run takes a pretty wide swatch of 0.25" through the southern half of NC, plenty cold enough here as the precip is to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Arguably the most interesting panel of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Arguably the most interesting panel of the run... While I am just about where that x is for the QPF max I would definitely need those partials to look a bit better if I were to see any flakes. Of course this is not something to take verbatim and it will change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The good thing is the trend is still there for some snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 expecting some flurries but thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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