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NC/VA Sunday Snow Threat

MillzPirate

By MillzPirate,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

ok, I know its early, but model consensus for today shows a reasonable threat for some -SN/RA in northern NC and southern VA for Sunday

you may be a little to trigger happy on this considering, I was going to post some preliminary thoughts this afternoon in the disco thread, and start a thread if it looked good after the 12z runs tomorrow, but you beat me to it... have to get some stuff done around the house, and after that will look over things and put m thoughts together, which they preliminarily are so to speak...

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

proof: See 12z model consensus.... not talking blockbuster. I stated -SN. Supported by ensemble means

No weenie here. Just a name change from Eastern. Thanks

It tends to be bad ju-ju around here to start a thread like this without much descriptive, or illustrative info, and then tell a member to go check the models, when you could of at-least elaborated more, and took a minute to post the 12z means from Allan' site, for all to see. Furthermore, your reputation, around these parts of the state at-least, precedes you. Glad you found the board, as we could use more eyes and ears in ENC, but next time please take a couple minutes to put something like this together, and add depth, not tell us what we have already been discussing in the Disco thread for a couple days, with some good info on what to look for going forward.

p.s. Have you seen the spread in the individual members? Means while a good tool, excellent sometimes given continuity and agreement amongst individual members, show a good deal of spread currently in the individual panels leaving things highly uncertain.

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MillzPirate

MillzPirate

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Alright, I suppose I have been negligent in comprising sufficient support for my thesis. There are 2 ways I see this system evolving. 1) A stronger clipper system dives southward and crosses over TN/NC mountains. Lee trough develops, WAA coincides, everyone is bamboozled. Light sprinkles. Blob meanders off the coast. 2) A slightly weaker edition of the clipper drops to an anomolously low latitude for early December, redevelops near MHX and cruises NE spreading -SN for Christmas tree buyers east of 95 in NC. There are multitudes of things that could change the way this shakes up and have been discussed ad nauseum in the disco threads. Another note: Please note the credentials of the poster you are addressing before applying weenie tags hereforth please. I understand it is tough with a new board. Thank you

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Posted

Alright, I suppose I have been negligent in comprising sufficient support for my thesis. There are 2 ways I see this system evolving. 1) A stronger clipper system dives southward and crosses over TN/NC mountains. Lee trough develops, WAA coincides, everyone is bamboozled. Light sprinkles. Blob meanders off the coast. 2) A slightly weaker edition of the clipper drops to an anomolously low latitude for early December, redevelops near MHX and cruises NE spreading -SN for Christmas tree buyers east of 95 in NC. There are multitudes of things that could change the way this shakes up and have been discussed ad nauseum in the disco threads. Another note: Please note the credentials of the poster you are addressing before applying weenie tags hereforth please. I understand it is tough with a new board. Thank you

It is not a thesis, as those are comprised of fact, research, and forming conclusions off the data while furthering the extent of knowledge. This is more like a hypothesis, one which I stated today should be titled "we have no clue." For SN lovers in northern NC and souther VA, one should hope the 18z american guidance is not the re-start of a trend which has been there off and on over the past couple days. 18z GFS trending towards the NAM slightly, with a potential close off at 850mb in VA. That is a very unlikely, almost impossible solution for SN in NE NC and SE VA... WAA ftw!!!

gfs_850_078s.gif

Several members of the GFS ens and CMC ens have been showing, as has the ECMWF mean to a lesser extent, and the 12z Euro shows a 850 low center off the VA coast, meaning the possibility is very much on the table.

12zeuro850mbWinds096.gif

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
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FWIW- JB, thinks it's Va. on northward doesn't even mention NC ?

The storm coming this weekend will bomb out Monday off the coast. Right now it looks like a 100- to 200-mile-wide swath of 6- to 10-inch snows falls from the Dakotas to central W.Va. and then 3-6 inches across Virginia late Saturday night and Sunday. There is still a chance this is stronger farther north,

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Jon

Jon

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Would love to have some insight from Huffman and East on this. They don't seem to post as much over here as at Eastern. :(

"An upper level disturbance will dive southeast towards the state Saturday and will likely bring the chance for measurable snow to the NC Mountains. The models are differing on how strong and how much precipitation this system will wring out, with the ECMWF being the wettest and the GFS the driest. East of the mountains we could see a cold rain mixed with some snow Saturday night, but we will likely see little to no accumulation. Near the Virginia border, it is possible some areas could see a dusting if the ECMWF solution verifies." - per Allan Huffman.

Allan states in-thread when he updates his blog, just doesn't disco in-thread because he's insanely busy, as he's explained before.

East has chimed in this morning as well,

"A clipper system will swing through this weekend. With this morning's forecast package, I have again left precip chances out of the forecast. However, I can't rule out a brief shower in a few spots at some point over the weekend. Highs will remain chilly....mainly in the mid to upper 40s." - per Matthew East

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Have to throw chunks to where most of your media market is I guess, kind of like the BCS.

Great point in regards to both issues. Anyway this thread should also include the possible potential for a significant upslope event getting underway this weekend. I like the way this is shapping up for NE TN and espeacilly northern NC Mtns/SW VA area. I beleive the warning criteria has been upped by NWS and I can easily see wide spread 2-4 on the valley floors in northern NC mtn counties. 6-10 wouldn;t be out of question on high western facing slopes. As the event draws closer, verification from those with insight on best wind trajectories, espeacilly as LP deepens off NC coast and rides out over the big pond will be able to address this better than I can. Road trip may be coming Sunday afternoon.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

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Great point in regards to both issues. Anyway this thread should also include the possible potential for a significant upslope event getting underway this weekend. I like the way this is shapping up for NE TN and espeacilly northern NC Mtns/SW VA area. I beleive the warning criteria has been upped by NWS and I can easily see wide spread 2-4 on the valley floors in northern NC mtn counties. 6-10 wouldn;t be out of question on high western facing slopes. As the event draws closer, verification from those with insight on best wind trajectories, espeacilly as LP deepens off NC coast and rides out over the big pond will be able to address this better than I can. Road trip may be coming Sunday afternoon.

:wub: I love it when you talk dirty.:lol:

Seriously great post, and I agree with you completely, as this is looking like a PROLONGED NW flow event.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Thanks for your input.

American WX does not Weenie tag.

Alright, I suppose I have been negligent in comprising sufficient support for my thesis. There are 2 ways I see this system evolving. 1) A stronger clipper system dives southward and crosses over TN/NC mountains. Lee trough develops, WAA coincides, everyone is bamboozled. Light sprinkles. Blob meanders off the coast. 2) A slightly weaker edition of the clipper drops to an anomolously low latitude for early December, redevelops near MHX and cruises NE spreading -SN for Christmas tree buyers east of 95 in NC. There are multitudes of things that could change the way this shakes up and have been discussed ad nauseum in the disco threads. Another note: Please note the credentials of the poster you are addressing before applying weenie tags hereforth please. I understand it is tough with a new board. Thank you

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Posted

My own feeling on this event is that clippers usually don't dive as far south as progged. We see this almost every year esp. in February from 72 to 96 hours out, but this one is probably modeled about right. With the developing block still, the track is on shaky ground but I'd err on the side of the usual clippers track and make an adjustment to the models, and that would mean northern NC could feel the effects, and much of eastern Tennessee but there will be a warm sector so sprinkles would be the rule in that sector around Asheville and southeast Tennessee and probably most of northern NC (except mtns). In the western piedmont to southern Sandhills a quick warm up usually occurs ahead of clippers, and the downslope drying wouldn't give much if any precip to that region south of 40 anyway. The best chance at accumulating snow would be eastern Kentucky, northeast Tn, NW NC and southern to central VA. with 1" to 3" common, but not much more. Clippers are fast and dont' have much moisture. Following it, upslope snow, and next week looks promising for off and on snow showers in the Apps again. With the cold outbreak next week, it will feel like the dead of January, with snowshowers in the mountains but sunshine most elsewhere.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Forget about clippers, especially this early in the season. We will not get snow from this. I'm sorry, I'm not going to post model images or anything, but from years of experience, I can almost guarantee you that you will see no significant snow in central NC from a clipper this early. This one, in particular, if it comes in like it's modeled, will not take a track favorable for most of NC or south. We need to watch the wave coming into CA early next week, as has been said already. If we are to see some early season snow, it will be from that one, not a weak low that moves across the northern tier of NC.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

My own feeling on this event is that clippers usually don't dive as far south as progged. We see this almost every year esp. in February from 72 to 96 hours out, but this one is probably modeled about right. With the developing block still, the track is on shaky ground but I'd err on the side of the usual clippers track and make an adjustment to the models, and that would mean northern NC could feel the effects, and much of eastern Tennessee but there will be a warm sector so sprinkles would be the rule in that sector around Asheville and southeast Tennessee and probably most of northern NC (except mtns). In the western piedmont to southern Sandhills a quick warm up usually occurs ahead of clippers, and the downslope drying wouldn't give much if any precip to that region south of 40 anyway. The best chance at accumulating snow would be eastern Kentucky, northeast Tn, NW NC and southern to central VA. with 1" to 3" common, but not much more. Clippers are fast and dont' have much moisture. Following it, upslope snow, and next week looks promising for off and on snow showers in the Apps again. With the cold outbreak next week, it will feel like the dead of January, with snowshowers in the mountains but sunshine most elsewhere.

I'm sorry, But I hate cold and dry :thumbsdown: If no chance for wintry weather give me the 60's :sun:

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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New 00 NAM moves the line further into NWNC and central NC with the clipper for Sunday...

And you can see why looking at the 850 and 500 mb maps. Vortmax is initially weaker over the Dakotas at 48 hrs and that translates to the east. 850 briefly closes off over western KY at 72, but opens up afterwards, with the disturbance tracking through NC. This is the most favorable scenario for the northern portions of NC to see SN out of this. Any stronger and the WAA will become a real issue for anyone outside of the Mountains. Even trending a little weaker would not be a bad thing as you can see on the 78hr panel a weak warm tongue at 850 coming in to central NC. Still, we are talking about the NAM outside of it's useful box, and things will almost certainly verify differently than what this run shows. Sounding here would likely be all RN, just based on looking at the 850 maps, but NE NC would be in game, as would the VA boarder counties...

nam_850_078m.gif

posted the medium map so folks could clearly see the 3C 850 isotherm advecting into central NC

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
Posted

00z NAm is probably all snow for RDU by about 3z Sunday (10pm), and the whole column is below freezing by 1am (6z). Taken literally probably a dusting for the Triangle and a 1-2 incher for the Va border.

Since the system is coming in during the afternoon and evening, boundary layer warmth will be an issue initially. I do think the northern mountains and Va could see light to moderate event.

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