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Continued discussion/obs for cutoff low May 18 through end of week


ORH_wxman

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Amazing what a little bit of downslope flow can do to that stubborn stratus layer here on the west slope of the Berkshires. Cleared up and had a nice afternoon for a few hours with temperatures approaching the upper 60s, while the low stratus layer was visibly banked up against the 2K cordillera just to my east. Similar to what occurred yesterday, but probably a bit more pronounced. Further downsloping off of the Taconics warmed the Hudson Valley into the mid 70s today. I bet Pete was stuck in the 50s with fog and drizzle on the other side of the hill, although he probably likes it that way. :rolleyes:

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Amazing what a little bit of downslope flow can do to that stubborn stratus layer here on the west slope of the Berkshires. Cleared up and had a nice afternoon for a few hours with temperatures approaching the upper 60s, while the low stratus layer was visibly banked up against the 2K cordillera just to my east. Similar to what occurred yesterday, but probably a bit more pronounced. Further downsloping off of the Taconics warmed the Hudson Valley into the mid 70s today. I bet Pete was stuck in the 50s with fog and drizzle on the other side of the hill, although he probably likes it that way. :rolleyes:

Same deal in our elevated valley up here... there's the 3,000ft ridge-line of the Worcester Range (high point is 3,600ft) to our east that was banked in with low clouds, then some small patches of blue sky down over the village, then more low clouds banked up against the 4,000ft spine of the Greens on the western side of town. Skies were clear above that stratus which appeared to be in the 2,500-4,500ft range, and you could actually see the the wave-like motion in the clouds draped over the two spines that make up our east/west town borders. The two mountain ranges were the high points of the wave and the valley was the low point where the clouds were breaking up.

Very cool and I love that little meso-scale terrain driven stuff.

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Amazing what a little bit of downslope flow can do to that stubborn stratus layer here on the west slope of the Berkshires. Cleared up and had a nice afternoon for a few hours with temperatures approaching the upper 60s, while the low stratus layer was visibly banked up against the 2K cordillera just to my east. Similar to what occurred yesterday, but probably a bit more pronounced. Further downsloping off of the Taconics warmed the Hudson Valley into the mid 70s today. I bet Pete was stuck in the 50s with fog and drizzle on the other side of the hill, although he probably likes it that way. :rolleyes:

Hey mitch. You got it right. I worked all day in the murcky drizzle and fog then drove down to Lee to play golf where I was shocked to see some blue sky and sun. On my ride home I left the relative warmth and ascended back into the fog and drizzle. By the time I got this side of Peru the drizzle was a steady light rain and temps in the 50's. While I don't mind this extended period of low visibility and drizzle/rain I have to admit it was nice to feel the sun as I walked the course. I'm expecting tomorrow to bbe nearly the same at 2k.

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OMG, I've NEVER seen it rain this hard here and for such a long duration...and lightning everywhere. Roads are absolute rivers, had to pull over to keep going...my AWD Subie just saved my life I'm pretty sure while I was driving. Hydroplaning everywhere. Rain sounds like machine guns outside, this is nuts...

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OMG, I've NEVER seen it rain this hard here and for such a long duration...and lightning everywhere. Roads are absolute rivers, had to pull over to keep going...my AWD Subie just saved my life I'm pretty sure while I was driving. Hydroplaning everywhere. Rain sounds like machine guns outside, this is nuts...

Home not school right?

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We had a good downpour too.

Kevin would be proud of that lightning storm we had. Too bad we didn't get the 70F muggy airmass the GFS showed otherwise the mild fun might have been more prevalent.

Fog has been the rule...the rain actually cleared out the fog...vis went up a ton. But we'll see if that lasts. It already looks like ceilings are lowering again since the Paxton radio towers I can normally see have gone invisible again at 1400 feet.

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Well the SPC probs are actually a bit juicer today for parts of the area as far as general t'storm development goes and even the threat for a few strong to marginally severe storms. While we will have better sfc heating to be dealing with today dewpoints are going to be much lower today. Despite the strong cold pool and steep ML lapse rates instability is going to be greatly limited. Shear is going to be virtually non-existent today as well.

Given the above said with strong sfc heating we should see some widely scattered showers and t'storms develop with the daytime heating later this morning and afternoon. Given a weakly unstable airmass characterized by SBcape values in the 250-500 J/KG range, MLcape values in the 250-500 J/KG range, MUcape values in the 500-750 J/KG range, and sfc-based LI values around -2°C, and very weak shear t'storms will be of the pulse variety this afternoon.

Despite the lack of moisture heavy rains should be the main threat along with small hail. While it is possible we get some larger hail (1'' in diameter) it may be difficult to achieve that due to weak lift, meager instability and little shear. Despite the limited shear there may be some gusty winds as well as forecast soundings show an inverted-v look...with the level of dry air aloft there is a remote possibility of a dry-microburst but this is likely a very remote threat.

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Picked up a little more lat night, had some lightning and a few rumbles while I was sill awake.

55.3/55

4.06" for a storm total thus far.

Up early eh? I think it rained here overnight but I was in a deep sleep. Looks like another day in the murck. Good news though, the phanthom torch is only 10 days away, still.

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Today could feature sct to bkn coverage over much of the interior. Might be some slow movers as well so heavy rain and hail a possibility. Shear isn't that great.

Edit: maybe not bkn...but cells will be sct around.

Yeah movement will be incredibly slow, if they even move at all. Going to be pulsing like crazy. This could lead to some flash flooding.

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AWT they will be moving up into the 60's as we advect in muggy air from the south

Dewpoints are not going to get much higher, good deal of mixing today with sfc heating and good deal of dry air aloft so as that muggier air tries to advect northward it's going to get dried out.

If we were to see 60's dewpoints today we'd be in a slight risk with 15% hail contour.

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Dewpoints are not going to get much higher, good deal of mixing today with sfc heating and good deal of dry air aloft so as that muggier air tries to advect northward it's going to get dried out.

If we were to see 60's dewpoints today we'd be in a slight risk with 15% hail contour.

LOL there's not gonna be any mixing today. There's nothing to generate any wind..which is why the storms are gonna be slow movers. Where do you get this stuff?

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