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Continued discussion/obs for cutoff low May 18 through end of week


ORH_wxman

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http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0809.html

If we want svr here we need to start burning off the low crap and get temps to spike and get rid of the convection overhead now.

Given how the flow through the entire column is basically due south it's really going to be hard for us to generate sufficient breaks in the clouds to allow for quality heating...how many times do we see this sort of thing even in the dead of summer :lol:

Still fun to watch and see how things unfold but we'll see what happens....looks like perhaps maybe eastern MA may see more breaks than us so maybe they get some action there and places off to our west see some while were stuck in the middle.

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Given how the flow through the entire column is basically due south it's really going to be hard for us to generate sufficient breaks in the clouds to allow for quality heating...how many times do we see this sort of thing even in the dead of summer :lol:

Still fun to watch and see how things unfold but we'll see what happens....looks like perhaps maybe eastern MA may see more breaks than us so maybe they get some action there and places off to our west see some while were stuck in the middle.

check out the heating on in the sun on the milford mesomap

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It's likely a very weak wave along the stalled front just to the se of BOS. A vortmax aloft wouldn't directly cause winds to swing around at the surface.

Yeah agreed. It's tough to resolve the front back this way... gets sort of washed out... but it's pretty neat to see the difference in obs between the Cape/Islands and the South Shore.

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Yeah agreed. It's tough to resolve the front back this way... gets sort of washed out... but it's pretty neat to see the difference in obs between the Cape/Islands and the South Shore.

Of all places..MVY and ACK have had the best weather. Not usually what you expect this time of year.

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Given how the flow through the entire column is basically due south it's really going to be hard for us to generate sufficient breaks in the clouds to allow for quality heating...how many times do we see this sort of thing even in the dead of summer :lol:

Still fun to watch and see how things unfold but we'll see what happens....looks like perhaps maybe eastern MA may see more breaks than us so maybe they get some action there and places off to our west see some while were stuck in the middle.

I think the action is west/southwest of us. The reason why is the steepest mid level lapse rates and best forcing (CVA) will stay over NJ/E NY. Eastern areas will have some better shear but instability will remain meager with more modest lapse rates.

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Of all places..MVY and ACK have had the best weather. Not usually what you expect this time of year.

Sometimes you get these weird warm fronts that hang up in odd places and the Gulf of Maine air off the NE flow is impossible to dislodge but the warmer water in ACK Sound and south of ACK helps clear the front north.

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The warm front is clearly moving north over CT now which is why these heavy showers keep regenerating in the southern part of the state and moving north.

AWT tomorrow will be much better for scattered severe stuff since we'll have some sun and more warmth and humidity.

\

Stick a fork in today

Dewpoints will be lower than today and ML temps will be slightly warmer...we have a much better chance of achieving better instability today than tomorrow, plus no shear tomorrow.

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I think the action is west/southwest of us. The reason why is the steepest mid level lapse rates and best forcing (CVA) will stay over NJ/E NY. Eastern areas will have some better shear but instability will remain meager with more modest lapse rates.

Yeah most likely, we've just seen this often enough in setups like this with a due southerly flow...only reason why I'm hoping for something here is b/c of the cold air aloft and fairly steep ML lapse rates here...usually in the summer with these setups ML lapse rates are like 5.5 C/KM...at least were closer to 6.5 C/KM.

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