weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Meanwhile,,it's pouring rain over much of the state..with no shot of clearing until midday at the earliest I wouldn't call this much of the state. http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1305815191&lat=41.75587082&lon=-72.75270081&label=West+Hartford%2C+CT&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I wouldn't call this much of the state. http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1305815191&lat=41.75587082&lon=-72.75270081&label=West+Hartford%2C+CT&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Kevin making an accurate post would be like me going a day without eating.. a rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Kevin making an accurate post would be like me going a day without eating.. a rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Kevin making an accurate post would be like me going a day without eating.. a rarity I think you need a weekend with Jack up on Brokeback..you've been very belligerent lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I think you need a weekend with Jack up on Brokeback..you've been very belligerent lately I've just been feeling awfully testy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I've just been feeling the testes... :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 :axe: I knew you were doing that when I saw you were posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 This week is reminiscent of the May 2005 cutoff from hell. I think 2005 might have been a bit windier, but its not that far off. At least we cracked 50F today. Also, 2005 was a 2-3 week ordeal...this has been 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Also, 2005 was a 2-3 week ordeal...this has been 4-5 days. This week has been a walk in the park compared to that one. I remember moving into our current house that week..and it rained everyday and was cold. Morning temps were in the upper 30's a few days. This one has been less rainy. and much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Is there some kind of feature in the GOM causing a bit of circulation? Check out surface winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks like a vortmax/vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0809.html If we want svr here we need to start burning off the low crap and get temps to spike and get rid of the convection overhead now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0809.html If we want svr here we need to start burning off the low crap and get temps to spike and get rid of the convection overhead now. Given how the flow through the entire column is basically due south it's really going to be hard for us to generate sufficient breaks in the clouds to allow for quality heating...how many times do we see this sort of thing even in the dead of summer Still fun to watch and see how things unfold but we'll see what happens....looks like perhaps maybe eastern MA may see more breaks than us so maybe they get some action there and places off to our west see some while were stuck in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Given how the flow through the entire column is basically due south it's really going to be hard for us to generate sufficient breaks in the clouds to allow for quality heating...how many times do we see this sort of thing even in the dead of summer Still fun to watch and see how things unfold but we'll see what happens....looks like perhaps maybe eastern MA may see more breaks than us so maybe they get some action there and places off to our west see some while were stuck in the middle. check out the heating on in the sun on the milford mesomap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 check out the heating on in the sun on the milford mesomap Where the sun has come out off an on temps have spiked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks like a vortmax/vort It's likely a very weak wave along the stalled front just to the se of BOS. A vortmax aloft wouldn't directly cause winds to swing around at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 It's likely a very weak wave along the stalled front just to the se of BOS. A vortmax aloft wouldn't directly cause winds to swing around at the surface. Yeah agreed. It's tough to resolve the front back this way... gets sort of washed out... but it's pretty neat to see the difference in obs between the Cape/Islands and the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 It's likely a very weak wave along the stalled front just to the se of BOS. A vortmax aloft wouldn't directly cause winds to swing around at the surface. That wave of moisture rounding the M/a states isnt going to help us any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 The warm front is clearly moving north over CT now which is why these heavy showers keep regenerating in the southern part of the state and moving north. AWT tomorrow will be much better for scattered severe stuff since we'll have some sun and more warmth and humidity. \ Stick a fork in today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Yeah agreed. It's tough to resolve the front back this way... gets sort of washed out... but it's pretty neat to see the difference in obs between the Cape/Islands and the South Shore. Of all places..MVY and ACK have had the best weather. Not usually what you expect this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Given how the flow through the entire column is basically due south it's really going to be hard for us to generate sufficient breaks in the clouds to allow for quality heating...how many times do we see this sort of thing even in the dead of summer Still fun to watch and see how things unfold but we'll see what happens....looks like perhaps maybe eastern MA may see more breaks than us so maybe they get some action there and places off to our west see some while were stuck in the middle. I think the action is west/southwest of us. The reason why is the steepest mid level lapse rates and best forcing (CVA) will stay over NJ/E NY. Eastern areas will have some better shear but instability will remain meager with more modest lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Of all places..MVY and ACK have had the best weather. Not usually what you expect this time of year. Sometimes you get these weird warm fronts that hang up in odd places and the Gulf of Maine air off the NE flow is impossible to dislodge but the warmer water in ACK Sound and south of ACK helps clear the front north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Of all places..MVY and ACK have had the best weather. Not usually what you expect this time of year. Phil said he's been laying out on his deck this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 The warm front is clearly moving north over CT now which is why these heavy showers keep regenerating in the southern part of the state and moving north. AWT tomorrow will be much better for scattered severe stuff since we'll have some sun and more warmth and humidity. \ Stick a fork in today Dewpoints will be lower than today and ML temps will be slightly warmer...we have a much better chance of achieving better instability today than tomorrow, plus no shear tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Dewpoints will be lower than today and ML temps will be slightly warmer...we have a much better chance of achieving better instability today than tomorrow, plus no shear tomorrow. Dews will be higher tomorrow than today. Should have dews in the low-mid 60's tomorrow..Today we're just slowly creeping them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I think the action is west/southwest of us. The reason why is the steepest mid level lapse rates and best forcing (CVA) will stay over NJ/E NY. Eastern areas will have some better shear but instability will remain meager with more modest lapse rates. Yeah most likely, we've just seen this often enough in setups like this with a due southerly flow...only reason why I'm hoping for something here is b/c of the cold air aloft and fairly steep ML lapse rates here...usually in the summer with these setups ML lapse rates are like 5.5 C/KM...at least were closer to 6.5 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Dews will be higher tomorrow than today. Should have dews in the low-mid 60's tomorrow..Today we're just slowly creeping them up Most model guidance has the dewpoints in the mid 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Most model guidance has the dewpoints in the mid 50's. Oops theres antoher one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Most model guidance has the dewpoints in the mid 50's. And there you have it..blindly following guidance. I figured that's where you were getting that..Watch , wait, and learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 There is going to be a fairly decent amount of dry air aloft tomorrow and with some decent mixing some of that dry air is going to mix down to the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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