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Continued discussion/obs for cutoff low May 18 through end of week


ORH_wxman

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I must have died and gone to the Best Spring Ever Heaven.

Courtesy of the grand folks at Upton NY~

wed~ mostly sunny 76

thur~ parly sunny 77

Fri~ partly sunny 76

Sat~ partly sunny 77

Sun~ partly sunny 76

Memorial Day~ Mostly sunny 79

Tuesday~ mostly sunny 81

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I don't care that we have clouds like this, as long as it's warm with a touch of humidity...this isn't bad.

Looks like I lucked out have a nice little isolated thunderstorm heading directly over me at the moment with frequent lightning and heavy, heavy rain!!

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Partly sunny

77

dp down to 60

with a wonderful breeze out of the sw off of the cool LIS, just glorious, the next 3 months I am thankful being next to the water.

Enjoy the torch.

Beautiful afternoon here, love it, just humid enough, 38 trout and 3 bass what an awesome day, finally have the real spring feel.

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Hit 72 here, mostly cloudy. Today was supposed to be the hot day.lol

looks pretty warm to me for the next 7+ days...enjoy!!!

Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Areas of fog after 5am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 71. North wind between 3 and 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Calm wind.

Thursday: A chance of showers, mainly after noon. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming south between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Memorial Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

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BOX says MRG in pure hell from here on out..may want to cut hair to keep cool

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF LIGHTNING THREAT

THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD FROM

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL

SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. WARM

AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY

ALTHOUGH IT IS MUCH WEAKER ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A BIG DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE

GFS STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MA AND RI ON

MONDAY LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE CONVECTION THERE. THE

ECMWF DEVELOPS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO

VALLEY AND PA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT HAVING QUICKLY RETURNED WELL

NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY HOT WEATHER FOR

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE GONE WITH GFS SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY NIGHT

AND MONDAY AND A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF DRYING IT OUT FOR TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

FORECASTING LOWER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS. SOUTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT

COOLER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW

PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...THERE IS A

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NY STATE. GFS INDICATES TOTAL

TOTALS INDICES INCREASING TO 50+ ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF OUR

FORECAST AREA. ECMWF SHOWS A MAX OF 56 MOVING FROM THE D.C. AREA

TO CT THU NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE 30 TO 40 PCT POPS THU NIGHT

MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID

80S AND DEWPOINTS AT LEAST UP TO THE MID 60S. 500 MB TEMPERATURES

ACTUALLY COOL TO -12C TO -13C. VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH LIFTED

INDICES OF -7 ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS ACROSS SOUTHERN

NH/WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA/NORTHERN CT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT THE

BEST LIFT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT IN THE EARLY

EVENING. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM

A VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION. THE ORIENTATION OF

MODEL ENERGY- HELICITY INDICES OF 1.0 TO 1.75 WOULD INDICATE A

POSSIBLE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM ALBANY AREA

SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF PHILADELPHIA...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE

BERKSHIRES...CT VALLEY...AND SW NH IN THE EVENING. HAVE CHANCE

PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT HIGHER IN

THE NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY. THICKNESS RIDGE MOVES

OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE CONSERVATIVELY GONE WITH HIGHS IN

THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP IT COOLER AGAIN WITH ONLY MID

70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. BUT THE 850 MB WINDS WILL BE

INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO AM NOT EXPECTING THE COOLING TO

PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE BY

EVEING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN ON FRIDAY AND COVER MORE

OF THE AREA...NOT JUST THE NORTH AND WEST.

THE BONA FIDE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD SUNDAY

MORNING AND THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

A THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO

SOUTHEAST. CLOUDINESS COULD BE A FACTOR FOR PREVENTING THE STORMS

FROM BEING VERY STRONG... BUT SUNSHINE COULD HELP DEVELOP STRONGER

STORMS.

MONDAY...ASSUMING FRONT STALLS OVER CT/RI/SE MA. THUS CHANCE OF

SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL PERSISTS IN THOSE AREAS...DRIER TO

THE NORTH.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY

SUNNY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. IF THE ECMWF

IS CORRECT AND THE FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH WITH A STRONG

CLOSED RIDGE ALOFT OVER OHIO AND PA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD

APPROACH 90... BUT LET/S NOT GET CARRIED AWAY YET.

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Take BOX'S words "Let's not get carried away...." to heart Blizz. I currently see to days that might hit 80 in their forecast for here so it's less than remarkable. You need a better product to sell.

Every single day on your 7 day is above normal and many of them are +5 to +10 above normal. Its going to be warm. Time to accept that.

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http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KMAASHFI1

Appears his station is usually 3-4 above yours for daily max temps.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KMACHEST1

Peru was 71 for a high while Chester Hill was 68. Very little sun. Steve's overnight lows are nearly the same but his daytime temps are sometimes a few degrees warmer. The old station in nearby Goshen, Ma seemed to parallel the highs here well but it doesn't seem to be part of the Wunderground family any more.

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http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KMACHEST1

Peru was 71 for a high while Chester Hill was 68. Very little sun. Steve's overnight lows are nearly the same but his daytime temps are sometimes a few degrees warmer. The old station in nearby Goshen, Ma seemed to parallel the highs here well but it doesn't seem to be part of the Wunderground family any more.

Yep. Was wondering a bit as his elevation is roughly the same as yours. God's country FTW.

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