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Continued discussion/obs for cutoff low May 18 through end of week


ORH_wxman

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i have no idea why there is not a flash flood warning here its been ripping for the past hour and everything looks like a river outside!!

There is a flood watch there. Probably converted to warning soon with small streams and such.

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48.5F and complete fog and rain. Ceilings low for the past 3 days.

Duration of the low TT's and the RA,DZ and FG with the persistant low ceilings is pretty neat. Keeping my climatic data daily to compare to previous years.

Last spring makes this seem more extreme. This is good coming off of a 90" plus snow season. I am noticing central mass seems to be the coolest area, with CQX making it to 68F today. Ct. RVR Valley milder as well. Fetch from the NE off the Gulf of ME and CAD banking up aganist the central hills FTW. BOS Max TT only 53F and BVY only 51F as well.

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50/50, fog and drizzle. BOX's forecast gets even more grim. Next shot at sunshine is Wednesday of next week. Day after day of murck. Blizz's rosey torch forecast for all of next week is looking like a pipe dream. I'll blame the over-exposure to Lesco products for his poor judgement.

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50/50, fog and drizzle. BOX's forecast gets even more grim. Next shot at sunshine is Wednesday of next week. Day after day of murck. Blizz's rosey torch forecast for all of next week is looking like a pipe dream. I'll blame the over-exposure to Lesco products for his poor judgement.

Friday and more especially Saturday and Sunday are going to have periods of sunshine, on Saturday there should be clouds around in the morning but by mid to late morning they should break up leading to periods of sun but during the afternoon clouds should be on the increase (more in the way of cumulus rather than nimbostratus type) as afternoon heating coupled with cold air aloft and some lift lead to the development of clouds.

There should even be some widely scattered showers and t'storms around as well during the afternoon.

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Friday and more especially Saturday and Sunday are going to have periods of sunshine, on Saturday there should be clouds around in the morning but by mid to late morning they should break up leading to periods of sun but during the afternoon clouds should be on the increase (more in the way of cumulus rather than nimbostratus type) as afternoon heating coupled with cold air aloft and some lift lead to the development of clouds.

There should even be some widely scattered showers and t'storms around as well during the afternoon.

Hmmm. Looks bleak, not that i mind, this weather is fine by me.

Today: Showers likely, mainly after 11am. Areas of fog between 10am and 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 62. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: A chance of showers. Areas of fog after 2am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 52. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 53. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Light north wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 11pm. Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 65.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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That forecast doesn't look bad at all...I think that's pretty close to perfect spring weather, temps into the 60's to near 70°F. I really wouldn't worry all too much about the shower threats after Friday/Saturday.

The shower threats for Monday-Wednesday I don't think are much...I would think 99% of those days will be dry.

At least down this way up until this week this really has not been a bad spring at all. I only had one baseball game rained out, usually by this time I've had 2-3, it was fairly warm out for the most part as well...all I've had to wear was a long-sleeved shirt...sometimes my sweatshirt under that which isn't bad by my standards as I'm someone who gets very cold real easily.

Once we just get through these next few days though the weather will become much more pleasant and it will be much more enjoyable being outdoors.

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50/50, fog and drizzle. BOX's forecast gets even more grim. Next shot at sunshine is Wednesday of next week. Day after day of murck. Blizz's rosey torch forecast for all of next week is looking like a pipe dream. I'll blame the over-exposure to Lesco products for his poor judgement.

LOL..what a fail by you. Stop relying on the P and C's and read the discussions

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Sadly, this great weather will one day end. In the meantime, enjoy it!

So many people I know are so crabby about this. Why? I don't get it.

Well it does blow for outdoor activities and who likes cool weather like this? You just cramp up and if you're outside and getting wet you get the chills and it takes forever to warmup.

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I think tomorrow and Saturday have a better shot at that..but small chance today I guess

It's a tough call I think, today we have much better dynamics to work with, more in the way of moisture, and lift will be stronger. By tomorrow/Saturday we lose a great deal of dynamics and I don't think the instability be will be nearly enough to compensate for updraft strength. Also, the strength of the lift will be much weaker.

At least with today we much more in the way working for us...elevated instability should be greater, even potential for a bit more in the way of sfc-based instability. Dynamics are not screaming strong but certainly strong enough, and lift is not bad.

Neither of these days are going to feature widespread action anyways.

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It's a tough call I think, today we have much better dynamics to work with, more in the way of moisture, and lift will be stronger. By tomorrow/Saturday we lose a great deal of dynamics and I don't think the instability be will be nearly enough to compensate for updraft strength. Also, the strength of the lift will be much weaker.

At least with today we much more in the way working for us...elevated instability should be greater, even potential for a bit more in the way of sfc-based instability. Dynamics are not screaming strong but certainly strong enough, and lift is not bad.

Neither of these days are going to feature widespread action anyways.

More heating Fri and Sat. Think Fri is biggest threat day

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