Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Continued discussion/obs for cutoff low May 18 through end of week


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 959
  • Created
  • Last Reply

hya and bos

HYA.

NAM

DT /MAY 23/MAY 24 /MAY 25 /MAY 26

HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12

N/X 57 71 56 64 52

TMP 55 55 54 57 61 63 61 66 68 66 62 61 60 58 62 62 61 59 56 54 55

DPT 51 52 52 54 58 59 58 61 59 59 57 57 56 55 56 53 51 50 49 50 51

CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CL FW FW OV

WDR 20 20 19 20 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 26 34 02 03 04 05 06 35 07

WSP 11 13 13 14 15 14 13 14 15 15 12 09 06 05 10 12 11 09 04 04 06

P06 46 35 75 6 22 18 5 3 5 5 11

P12 77 22 24 9 11

Q06 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q12 2 0 0 0 0

T06 5/ 1 7/ 1 14/ 2 4/ 6 5/ 5 5/ 2 2/ 1 1/ 1 0/ 4 0/ 0

T12 7/ 1 20/ 6 13/ 5 3/ 1 1/ 4

SNW 0 0 0

CIG 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 4 8 1 1 1 6 6 4 4 8 8 6 1

VIS 7 7 3 2 5 5 3 5 7 7 3 2 3 3 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

OBV N N BR BR BR BR BR HZ N N BR FG BR BR N N N N N N N

GFS

KHYA GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/23/2011 1200 UTC

DT /MAY 23/MAY 24 /MAY 25 /MAY 26

HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12

N/X 56 70 57 65 51

TMP 53 53 54 56 58 59 59 64 68 66 64 61 60 59 59 60 62 61 58 53 58

DPT 50 52 52 54 56 58 58 61 61 61 60 59 58 58 58 58 57 56 54 50 53

CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK FW OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV SC CL SC

WDR 18 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 23 23 24 25 24 26 05 03 02 02 02 33 02

WSP 10 11 11 12 14 14 13 14 15 14 13 08 06 05 07 09 12 13 06 05 06

P06 18 38 38 8 13 24 57 47 13 4 7

P12 57 13 70 49 7

Q06 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0

Q12 1 0 3 1 0

T06 0/ 0 4/ 0 17/ 0 2/ 1 3/17 7/ 3 26/ 0 8/ 0 3/ 3 0/ 0

T12 4/ 0 17/ 2 8/17 30/ 3 3/ 6

POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

SNW 0 0 0

CIG 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 8 8

VIS 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 5 5 5 5 1 2 3 2 4 7 7 7 6 7

OBV BR BR FG FG FG FG FG HZ HZ HZ BR FG FG BR FG BR N N N BR N

For BOS NAM

KBOS NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/23/2011 1200 UTC

DT /MAY 23/MAY 24 /MAY 25 /MAY 26

HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12

N/X 57 81 62 67 54

TMP 57 58 57 57 58 59 63 74 78 77 73 69 66 64 64 64 64 63 60 56 59

DPT 52 54 56 57 58 59 61 63 62 61 60 59 57 55 53 49 47 46 46 46 50

CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV BK OV BK BK FW FW BK BK

WDR 19 16 17 18 20 20 22 23 23 24 24 26 30 35 02 05 09 10 11 16 15

WSP 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 15 14 08 06 06 10 11 12 11 10 05 04 05

P06 33 37 34 3 15 30 5 7 5 8 11

P12 45 18 30 9 12

Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q12 1 0 0 0 0

T06 6/ 8 6/ 2 6/ 3 2/ 8 11/14 8/ 4 1/ 1 1/ 3 0/11 1/ 1

T12 6/ 8 11/ 8 21/14 1/ 3 2/11

SNW 0 0 0

CIG 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 7 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 8 8

VIS 7 7 5 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

OBV N N BR BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

GFS

KBOS GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/23/2011 1200 UTC

DT /MAY 23/MAY 24 /MAY 25 /MAY 26

HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12

N/X 56 79 60 69 55

TMP 55 56 55 56 57 58 63 72 75 74 71 67 64 62 63 64 65 66 63 58 60

DPT 52 54 54 56 57 57 60 62 61 60 60 59 58 57 56 56 55 53 51 48 50

CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK BK OV OV OV OV BK SC FW CL BK

WDR 16 17 17 18 17 19 20 24 25 24 25 26 31 36 02 03 02 04 04 29 16

WSP 11 12 13 10 10 11 12 12 15 13 09 07 05 06 08 13 14 13 07 04 05

P06 18 58 39 6 16 21 65 37 10 4 9

P12 74 16 76 39 9

Q06 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0

Q12 2 0 4 1 0

T06 0/ 3 4/ 0 17/ 1 8/ 8 20/31 6/ 5 20/ 0 2/ 1 4/14 0/ 0

T12 4/ 5 17/ 9 28/31 20/ 3 4/15

POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

SNW 0 0 0

CIG 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 6 8 8 8 8 6 2 2 3 5 8 8 8 8

VIS 7 7 3 2 2 4 1 6 6 7 7 1 3 4 2 5 7 7 7 7 7

OBV N BR BR FG BR BR FG HZ N N N FG BR BR BR BR N N N N N

Link to comment
Share on other sites

thanks for the above.

yeah looked a bit more promising on those 12z runs. flow wasn't quite so ugly and column looked drier. same for thurs.

Hopefully it happens..though I don't like the onshore flow. Eh, we'll see I guess. The GFS has a questionable low (could be convective feedback). That might be causing too much ne flow, but I do think we'll have some sort of erly fetch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully it happens..though I don't like the onshore flow. Eh, we'll see I guess. The GFS has a questionable low (could be convective feedback). That might be causing too much ne flow, but I do think we'll have some sort of erly fetch.

that follow-up wave is weird - definitely has looked like convective feedback but it's been on most guidance so i assume there's some truth to it. i'm wondering if it's being overdeveloped a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

that follow-up wave is weird - definitely has looked like convective feedback but it's been on most guidance so i assume there's some truth to it. i'm wondering if it's being overdeveloped a bit.

Euro looks like it would clear us out too at first glance Wednesday.. Just weak onshore flow.

Yeah I wonder if it indeed is real, but the GFS perhaps is a little aggressive with that feature. Sometimes those are real, but I'm not sure about the GFS depiction. There is a s/w coming through, and that could enhance the dynamics a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro looks like it would clear us out too at first glance Wednesday.. Just weak onshore flow.

Yeah I wonder if it indeed is real, but the GFS perhaps is a little aggressive with that feature. Sometimes those are real, but I'm not sure about the GFS depiction. There is a s/w coming through, and that could enhance the dynamics a bit.

yeah the 00z nam was a lot like the GFS. it just popped way too potent of a surface reflection and too powerful of a little vortmax - which appeared out of nowhere embedded in that shortwave...but last two runs have backed off.

like you said, euro looks pretty decent there assuming the low levels aren't mucked up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I bet if you stood atop Mt Graylock in NW Mass and peered toward the E, you'd see a vast sea of smooth strata deck as far as the eye could take you.

We are still reeling from the throws of the cut-off, even though it is dead and gone... It's damage is still being leveled. Basically, we had a punishingly long duration of saturation in the BL...below 850mb for that matter, and now... a diffused warm frontal structure has us heavily inverted over top, effectively capping in the fecal matter off that close low long after it has gone. This air mass is literally trapped east of the western NE elevations, and N-W of the Marine BL - these act no different that valley walls. The only way to get tihs out of here but good is to have a 20+ kts firehose wind blast from the OV.

Luckily the NAM orders up that for tomorrow.

This is one of those times where the puke gets so entrentched that you can actually witness multiple synoptic evolutions transpire and this air mass lingers through all of them - an affect quite indigenous to this really bad place on the planet, Meteorological spring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I bet if you stood atop Mt Graylock in NW Mass and peered toward the E, you'd see a vast sea of smooth strata deck as far as the eye could take you.

We are still reeling from the throws of the cut-off, even though it is dead and gone... It's damage is still being leveled. Basically, we had a punishingly long duration of saturation in the BL...below 850mb for that matter, and now... a diffused warm frontal structure has us heavily inverted over top, effectively capping in the fecal matter off that close low long after it has gone. This air mass is literally trapped east of the western NE elevations, and N-W of the Marine BL - these act no different that valley walls. The only way to get tihs out of here but good is to have a 20+ kts firehose wind blast from the OV.

Luckily the NAM orders up that for tomorrow.

This is one of those times where the puke gets so entrentched that you can actually witness multiple synoptic evolutions transpire and this air mass lingers through all of them - an affect quite indigenous to this really bad place on the planet, Meteorological spring.

If you were on top of Mt. Greylock right now you'd only see a hundred yards or so as we've been socked in all day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...