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Continued discussion/obs for cutoff low May 18 through end of week


ORH_wxman

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LOL. it's awful. 12 straight days below normal now at BOS and only 3 so far this month >70F....but 10 with highs under 60F. :arrowhead:

i wonder what nick (OSU) thinks of spring in SNE now. LOL.

you guys win...awful

April was okay...May has been ****.

Though from the cloudiness from the Blue Hill obs, it seems that this isn't exactly average...bad even as far as SNE spring go.

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Summer slams in on the 06z NAM….

36 hour BOS’ FRH grid: 36000634732 01497 062213 67 25 17 10

From left to right that’s the Lifted Index (97 à stability index where -3 is thunderstorms possible). 22 means wind direction of 220 degrees, or SW. 25 is the TI temperature (980mb level), which by typical rule of thumb we to add 3-4F to the conversion temperature for determining the 2-meter T (works almost every time in a well mixed boundary layer). So 25C à 77F @ 20mb up, so then adding that 3.5 à 81 or 82F. You could also check this by estimating a BL depth of (T3+T5)/2 = ~ 13.5 @ 850mbs… Typically in a warm sector you maximize the BL depth, so 850mb adiabatic transport supports ~84 at the sfc actually… Not bad! And that’s for BOS, which a 220 degree wind is actually going to be warmer by a little for FIT-BDL, because 220 for BOS has likely got some south coastal marine contamination.

Very summery appeal there by Tuesday, tomorrow, afternoon on the 06z NAM. What would New England be without whiplashing across seasonal boundaries.

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Yeah subsidence along with the SW flow behind the morning s/w should yield to rapid clearing, however, OTOH, the subsidence might screw us later in the day for storms...might be too strong to overcome.

Right..tomorrow ends up being a nice summer day..and right again...there won't be any storms in SNE tomorrow. Birvine PHAIL

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Right..tomorrow ends up being a nice summer day..and right again...there won't be any storms in SNE tomorrow. Birvine PHAIL

Well actually he is going to be right...there should be some elevated storms across parts of the region later tonight/early AM tomorrow.

It's just with the CF we might be SOL.

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There will be elevated thunder tonight with the warm front..I'm talking about tomorrow..It's a dry fropa

If we can overcome the subsidence were going to pop some storms...as long as we get low 80's with low 60's dews we're going to get weakly unstable...ML lapse rates start off somewhat steep but they do weaken as the day goes on which will limit the overall instability.

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