TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I dont know if ive ever seen a day with consistent fog like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I dont know if ive ever seen a day with consistent fog like this That's because you are a pup and have very little life experience to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Departures for this week thus far (Sunday through today): BOS: -7.5F ORH: -8.0F BDL: -5.0F PVD: -5.2F Should still get to at least average or above for the month I would say. My parents said that the guy is coming to open the pool tomorrow ...I'm sure he loves doing that in 50F and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 The pea soup fog has been pretty impressive. It was interesting driving out to the market earlier this evening...once below about 600 feet, the fog let up quite a bit, above that elevation it was completely pea soup and vis under a couple hundred yards. Not sure if the ceiling has lowered since then around here, but it was cool to drive through earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 The pea soup fog has been pretty impressive. It was interesting driving out to the market earlier this evening...once below about 600 feet, the fog let up quite a bit, above that elevation it was completely pea soup and vis under a couple hundred yards. Not sure if the ceiling has lowered since then around here, but it was cool to drive through earlier. We've been locked in the mank up here for days now and it lookslike it's going to rain quite a bit soon looking at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Should still get to at least average or above for the month I would say. Everyone is almost guaranteed to finish the month above average for temperatures. All of the long-range models show warmth arriving after May 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 That's because you are a pup and have very little life experience to work with. LOL I think its more I didn't pay attention till 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 its been a wet night, ct has been trashed by rain, except for the most eastern of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Dense fog and light rain...vis about 100 yards. Temp of 49.0F on the dot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 heavy sheet DZ and dense FG here attm. 48F I wish some of the heavier SHRA's in W.CT. get to the east later as Low lifts and slowly fills. It's boring without some heavier stuff and some LTG in 48F air would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Temp. is 48F and holding. FG is very thick now.. Less than 1/4 mile VSBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Nice.. SHRA's coming through now. FG has not budged though and still 48F NE 12 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Tomorrow is actually looking kind of interesting as far as convective potential is concerned. Latest model guidance is showing some pretty decent elevated instability tomorrow with anywhere between 1000-1500 J/KG of MUcape across the region. Looks like parts of the region, especially at least in CT may get into the lower 60's tomorrow with dewpoints rising into the lower 60's as well. With temperatures cooling aloft in the mid levels throughout the day and with sfc temps rising as well as dewpoints we should actually become marginally unstable at the surface tomorrow as well. We could end up with between 200-500 J/KG of SBcape and LI values look to be around -2°C. SI values also at or just below zero with TT right around 50. Winds aloft are not overly strong but they are strong enough to lead to around 30-35 knots of vertical shear which could help lead to some sort of storm organization. This setup tomorrow will be very similar to the setup that's occurred across parts of the mid-Atlantic the past few days, however, we will be lacking the surfaced-based instability they did so this will limit the overall severe potential across our region. Given very cold mid-level temps, 30-35 knots of vertical shear, helicity values between 100-200 m2s2, and decent lift there should be periods of elevated convection tomorrow...perhaps even being surfaced-based. The main threat would be torrential rains with flash flooding but some hail and gusty winds can't be ruled out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Matt Noyes thinks there could be some strong storms in SNE tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I could see us being under a SEE TEXT when the 6z outlook comes out and once the morning rolls around if there is a better idea of how unstable we actually will become perhaps an upgrade to a slight risk...I would think areas to our SW will definitely be under a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 big boomers tom afternoon baby some sun=lots of fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 big boomers tom afternoon baby some sun=lots of fun Yeah if there are any breaks of sun tomorrow it could be a little fun...not going to be a widespread event but it could help at least set the stage for a few severe reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks like some more serious rain will finally get eastern areas overnight. Good looking feed of echoes S of Block Island and MVY/ACK heading NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Yeah if there are any breaks of sun tomorrow it could be a little fun...not going to be a widespread event but it could help at least set the stage for a few severe reports. NAM soundings and GFS soundings are vastly different lmao one has an inversion all day the other doesnt..... E wind at the surface.. S winds aloft... lol.. some instability but with wind directions like that I doubt we clear enough for even one severe report.. Anywhere but New England we would have a big severe day upon us.. good shear but horrendus directions of wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 NAM soundings and GFS soundings are vastly different lmao one has an inversion all day the other doesnt..... E wind at the surface.. S winds aloft... lol.. some instability but with wind directions like that I doubt we clear enough for even one severe report.. Anywhere but New England we would have a big severe day upon us.. good shear but horrendus directions of wind Well if we were to see any strong storms tomorrow the main threat with those would be hail and whether or not we have an inversion is not really going to have much of a factor here. With cooling ML temps and steepening ML lapse rates that alone will develop a solid deal of elevated cape. At least across CT temps should make the lower 60's and dewpoints should follow suite. This will help to lead to some weak sfc-based instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Suny MM5 socks us in between sfc and 3k the majority of the day.. some breaks by end and 500k/j for all of SNE.. doesn't pop much precip over SNE at all.. PSU WRF would lead me to believe BOS will be socked in for sure.. SREF 30% probs interior CT of 1000 k/j.. 80% or so for 500 k/j.. not bad.. Thunderstorm probs > 50% interior SNE.. A bit more interesting than I gave it credit for.. a bit intrigued by the probabilities.. Maybe wiz is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Any strikes in this line south of me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 Any strikes in this line south of me? A couple down south of MVY, but not much. Those are CG strikes though. Probably more CC strikes. So I'm sure there's rumbles in there, but they will diminish as they head north into our more stable airmass. But it wouldn't be surprising to hear a couple rumbles later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 A couple down south of MVY, but not much. Those are CG strikes though. Probably more CC strikes. So I'm sure there's rumbles in there, but they will diminish as they head north into our more stable airmass. But it wouldn't be surprising to hear a couple rumbles later. Oh the excitement... So what allows us to clear out a bit tomorrow? The drying on the WV would suggest some help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Oh the excitement... So what allows us to clear out a bit tomorrow? The drying on the WV would suggest some help There's actually going to be a good deal of dry air that works in aloft in the mid-levels so most of our clouds, to start the day at least are going to be low-level and given the time of year the stronger sun angle may work to cause some breaks within the clouds, although they will be short-lived and this is not going to be very widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I'm actually pretty excited for the new SPC outlook...I'm fairly confident we will see a SEE TEXT for at least parts of our region with a slight risk off to our SW. I know it's only a SEE TEXT but this is good practice for once the real season gets here in just a few weeks. This is like "Spring Training". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I'm actually pretty excited for the new SPC outlook...I'm fairly confident we will see a SEE TEXT for at least parts of our region with a slight risk off to our SW. I know it's only a SEE TEXT but this is good practice for once the real season gets here in just a few weeks. This is like "Spring Training". It's out now Wiz, see text only. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH UPPER LOW AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 500 J/KG MLCAPE. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Oh wow...that came out early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 This stretch is unreal.....gotta be close to a record when all is said and done: Overnight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Areas of dense fog. Low around 48. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: Showers, mainly before 10am. Areas of fog. High near 62. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Areas of fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. East wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming east between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 51. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Monday: Cloudy, with a high near 67. Monday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 58. Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Never seen anything like this...May 2005 is likely the closest....may go more than 2 weeks without so much as a cursory glance of a co*ck tease from the sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 i have no idea why there is not a flash flood warning here its been ripping for the past hour and everything looks like a river outside!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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