OKpowdah Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Little change overall, but easterlies will be raging over the dateline for several days at least, so next week should bring a cooler update. 13JUL2011 21.9 0.0 25.7 0.1 27.1-0.1 28.5 0.0 20JUL2011 22.1 0.4 25.6 0.1 26.9-0.1 28.4-0.2 I'm interested to see the effects of this WWB near 150E ... looks like it may not have much of a future. But it's certainly made an imprint on GLAAM and is well connected with the rise in the MJO right now. We continue to see an overall trend pushing low-frequency OLR anomalies eastward from Indonesia and the WPAC toward the dateline. Especially with the descending QBO easterlies, a weak La Nina this winter could be more east-based, leaving the west Pacific open for MJO waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I'm interested to see the effects of this WWB near 150E ... looks like it may not have much of a future. But it's certainly made an imprint on GLAAM and is well connected with the rise in the MJO right now. We continue to see an overall trend pushing low-frequency OLR anomalies eastward from Indonesia and the WPAC toward the dateline. Especially with the descending QBO easterlies, a weak La Nina this winter could be more east-based, leaving the west Pacific open for MJO waves Yeah, almost no future, it seems. Is past it's prime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Yeah, almost no future, it seems. Is past it's prime We haven't had a negative SOI reading since July 10th, and we've had double-digit positives the last few days. Considering the burst of strong trades coming, I think we'll see at least a weak La Niña. Some of the PDO waters near California seem to have cooled as well, and the connection to the Humboldt/Antarctic current is still extant. Global AAM has also stayed low after a spike in May/June: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 For the western lakes does a east or west based event favor more snow and cold versus another? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 We haven't had a negative SOI reading since July 10th, and we've had double-digit positives the last few days. Considering the burst of strong trades coming, I think we'll see at least a weak La Niña. Some of the PDO waters near California seem to have cooled as well, and the connection to the Humboldt/Antarctic current is still extant. Global AAM has also stayed low after a spike in May/June: I pretty much agree. I think the question may be how strong it gets and whether it can get into the moderate range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Right now, the tropical Pacific looks pretty similar to 2008 at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Right now, the tropical Pacific looks pretty similar to 2008 at the same time. Yeah it sort of does. The warm anom's across the N Pacific are a little farther east. July 26th 2008 July 24th 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah, the -PDO configuration in the North Pacific is somewhat different, but I was referring more just to the tropics themselves. Pretty similar anomalies down there, just a little bit further east this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 20JUL2011 22.1 0.4 25.6 0.1 26.9-0.1 28.4-0.2 27JUL2011 21.9 0.5 25.3 0.0 26.8-0.2 28.4-0.1 Some cooling but stable overall, probably a similar thing for next weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 27JUL2011 21.9 0.5 25.3 0.0 26.8-0.2 28.4-0.1 03AUG2011 21.5 0.3 25.0-0.2 26.4-0.4 28.3-0.2 Significant cooling, especially for a weekly, across the basin. I'll expect this to continue for next weekly, a bit more moderate, and probably going back to weak Niña territory very soon (for weeklies and ASO trimonthly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Evolution of SSTAs and heat content since April, which was the heat content peak (SSTAs peak was in late June) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Clear temp anomaly reversal getting established at 30mb, and starting to appear at 50mb An in phase QBO-Hadley Cell z-circulation is currently in progress across the southern hemisphere. The QBO circulation is promoting a tightening of the Hadley Cell and intensification, leading to more equatorward cyclonic wave breaking in the southern hemisphere and a stronger high north of 30°S. This can in part explain the enhanced trades lately. All of this began around mid-July and will probably wane a bit in a couple weeks (usual time scale). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 QBO values at 30mb were slightly positive and I expect negative values for this month as the QBO falls negative. GLAAM remains negative with some warming recently though. I'm thinking Weak-Mod Nina at this point with a -QBO and consistent Greenland Blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 GLAAM remains negative with some warming recently though. GLAAM doesn't measure temperature. Now, it may be correlated with ENSO and therefore have a lame correlation coefficient to temperature, but this is a loose connection at best. Either way, you obviously need to read up on what the GLAAM is and why it is important to the global wind budget. I am sorry if that sounded mean but I couldn't in good conscious let you continue to think that this was a measure of temperature. Maybe start here for a good read: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0469%281997%29054%3C1445%3ATDOIAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 ... in fact I may reread this one myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Maybe start here for a good read: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0469%281997%29054%3C1445%3ATDOIAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 ... in fact I may reread this one myself. Thanks for the link... I know what I am doing this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 GLAAM doesn't measure temperature. Now, it may be correlated with ENSO and therefore have a lame correlation coefficient to temperature, but this is a loose connection at best. Either way, you obviously need to read up on what the GLAAM is and why it is important to the global wind budget. I am sorry if that sounded mean but I couldn't in good conscious let you continue to think that this was a measure of temperature. Maybe start here for a good read: http://journals.amet...AA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 ... in fact I may reread this one myself. I'll echo that recommendation. That's a good one for folks to read. I have it somewhere at home and probably should re-read it again since it has been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 GLAAM doesn't measure temperature. Now, it may be correlated with ENSO and therefore have a lame correlation coefficient to temperature, but this is a loose connection at best. Either way, you obviously need to read up on what the GLAAM is and why it is important to the global wind budget. I am sorry if that sounded mean but I couldn't in good conscious let you continue to think that this was a measure of temperature. Maybe start here for a good read: http://journals.amet...AA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 ... in fact I may reread this one myself. Hmm.....I didn't say it measures temperatures. I was just referring to the GLAAM in general and its trends. Though thanks for that paper. It'll be interesting to read through it and learn more about the GLAAM. And BTW latest SST chart shows the coldest anomalies in regions 3.4 and 4 along with a cool patch developing in region 1+2. SOI remains positive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Hmm.....I didn't say it measures temperatures. I was just referring to the GLAAM in general and its trends. Then say it rose a bit, not warmed. Saying it warmed slightly implies temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 PDO dropped substantially from June to July. 2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 GLAAM doesn't measure temperature. Now, it may be correlated with ENSO and therefore have a lame correlation coefficient to temperature, but this is a loose connection at best. Either way, you obviously need to read up on what the GLAAM is and why it is important to the global wind budget. I am sorry if that sounded mean but I couldn't in good conscious let you continue to think that this was a measure of temperature. Maybe start here for a good read: http://journals.amet...AA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 ... in fact I may reread this one myself. Boo! I'm the product of the current ADD era (instant gratificatiion). Do you have something more straightforward like negative mountain torques in South America = _________, preferably in 500 words or less (no, seriously, shorter = better). The article is a bit over my head. Do you have something that can teach what fluxes, momentum transports, and eddies are? I think I found a decent article here: My link, but it's really long. Thanks for your help and understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Boo! I'm the product of the current ADD era (instant gratificatiion). Do you have something more straightforward like negative mountain torques in South America = _________, preferably in 500 words or less (no, seriously, shorter = better). The article is a bit over my head. Do you have something that can teach what fluxes, momentum transports, and eddies are? I think I found a decent article here: My link, but it's really long. Thanks for your help and understanding. That's still too tough for me. I need pictures and graphs and charts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Does anyone have any info on the difference between west and east based ninas on forcing patterns during the winter time? I know for a nino event, west based is more favorable in general for snow in the east. Does la nina have a favored postition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 As usual, a fascinating thread from HM. I'm always amazed at how he and some of the others on this site keep coming up with interesting topics regarding global or synoptic patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 GLAAM doesn't measure temperature. Now, it may be correlated with ENSO and therefore have a lame correlation coefficient to temperature, but this is a loose connection at best. Either way, you obviously need to read up on what the GLAAM is and why it is important to the global wind budget. I am sorry if that sounded mean but I couldn't in good conscious let you continue to think that this was a measure of temperature. Maybe start here for a good read: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0469%281997%29054%3C1445%3ATDOIAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 ... in fact I may reread this one myself. Does anyone have a copy of Weickmann and Sardeshmukh (1994)? Google Scholar doesn't have the pdf available. I'll be honest, I had a hard time comprehending Weickmann et al. (1997) and feel like going back and re-reading WS (1994) might help me grasp it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Big drop in the Niño 3 region 03AUG2011 21.5 0.3 25.0-0.2 26.4-0.4 28.3-0.2 10AUG2011 20.9-0.1 24.6-0.5 26.3-0.5 28.4-0.1 -5C anomalies already showing up in the subsurface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not that many would care at the moment, but we are at weak Niña for the weeklies 10AUG2011 20.9-0.1 24.6-0.5 26.3-0.5 28.4-0.1 17AUG2011 20.5-0.3 24.5-0.5 26.0-0.7 28.2-0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 August 15th SST: August 18th SST: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Whoops, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Aug 12th Yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not that many would care at the moment, but we are at weak Niña for the weeklies 10AUG2011 20.9-0.1 24.6-0.5 26.3-0.5 28.4-0.1 17AUG2011 20.5-0.3 24.5-0.5 26.0-0.7 28.2-0.2 This thread title is really outdated...maybe we need a new ENSO thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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