HM Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 Kind of makes the dream of interstellar travel seem a bit fleeting and unattainable if every quantum scale fraction of our beings are inexorably linked to the vagaries of the sun Control issues, when out of hand, can cause someone a lot of pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 The current CHI patterns are indicative of high frequency/low amplitude kelvin waves and they are generally a bore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 I'll say this for kelvin waves: the logic behind them increasing the potential for tropical storms/systems is sound. However, and I realize this is entirely anecdotal, many of them go under the radar. They just don't have the same type of "stir-up" that full blown MJO waves have when it comes to tropical genesis. That 10N-30N belt is going to feel the brunt of a MJO wave more than some quick impulse along the equator/ITCZ. But having said that, I still do use kelvin waves in my forecasts for the Tropics for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 CFS has really trended downwards lately. Undoubtedly overdone, but still a bit surprising to see. Bouncing all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 latest weeklies ... first since May 5, 2010 with 0.0+ across the board Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01JUN2011 24.3 0.7 26.8 0.1 27.5-0.1 28.4-0.2 08JUN2011 24.2 0.9 26.7 0.2 27.5 0.0 28.4-0.2 15JUN2011 23.8 0.8 26.6 0.2 27.4-0.1 28.4-0.3 22JUN2011 23.2 0.4 26.5 0.3 27.4 0.0 28.4-0.2 29JUN2011 22.9 0.4 26.1 0.1 27.4 0.1 28.6 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 latest weeklies ... first since May 5, 2010 with 0.0+ across the board Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01JUN2011 24.3 0.7 26.8 0.1 27.5-0.1 28.4-0.2 08JUN2011 24.2 0.9 26.7 0.2 27.5 0.0 28.4-0.2 15JUN2011 23.8 0.8 26.6 0.2 27.4-0.1 28.4-0.3 22JUN2011 23.2 0.4 26.5 0.3 27.4 0.0 28.4-0.2 29JUN2011 22.9 0.4 26.1 0.1 27.4 0.1 28.6 0.0 Looks like some cooling in Region 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Looks like some cooling in Region 3... ...which is a good thing, because it is getting rid of that nasty cold-west warm-east pattern. Cold-east neutral with low solar, -QBO, and an Atlantic SST pattern prone to -NAO is about the best you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Bouncing all over the place. That was June 4 -13. It's not up to date. This is the overall trend over the past month...pretty clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 That was June 4 -13. It's not up to date. This is the overall trend over the past month...pretty clear. You are right, I grabbed the E1. Where are you getting the 40 member plot? That website is a mess. CFS Version 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Clear temp anomaly reversal getting established at 30mb, and starting to appear at 50mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 AMJ ONI came in at -0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 29JUN2011 22.9 0.4 26.1 0.1 27.4 0.1 28.6 0.0 06JUL2011 22.2 0.0 25.8-0.1 27.1-0.1 28.5-0.1 Slight cooling, but with a wave currently crossing the basin, these numbers will probably show warming next week. I still think we'll end with some net cooling by winter (cool neutral to weak Niña) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 With QBO easterlies steadily descending, and westerlies weakening, I still think we do not see a weak La Nina develop, and favor around neutral. We are certainly seeing an IOD more representative of El Nino taking shape In particular, we should see MJO activity start to increase markedly over the next 4 months, and gradually shift low frequency convection eastward into the western Pacific toward the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 July's Eurosip consensus is cooler from the previous month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Also, it hints at a very active Atlantic hurricane season, moreso than the June's forecast, with a possible late ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 July's Eurosip consensus is cooler from the previous month I'm not surprised: the western regions have cooled a lot as the tongue of warmth has faded, there are -3C anomalies at 100m subsurface between 130-140W, and SOI has been quite robustly positive. Given this forecast, it looks as if the trades will continue to strengthen, driving more cooling into the ENSO area. Here are the zonal wind anomalies, blue for easterly trades: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I'm not surprised: the western regions have cooled a lot as the tongue of warmth has faded, there are -3C anomalies at 100m subsurface between 130-140W, and SOI has been quite robustly positive. Given this forecast, it looks as if the trades will continue to strengthen, driving more cooling into the ENSO area. Here are the zonal wind anomalies, blue for easterly trades: The upwelling phase of the KW that's in the EPac right now. It didn't do much in the W part of the basin, which is par for the course this year. Also, ENSO OHC has been slowly decreasing, dissipating chances for any kind of Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The upwelling phase of the KW that's in the EPac right now. It didn't do much in the W part of the basin, which is par for the course this year. Also, ENSO OHC has been slowly decreasing, dissipating chances for any kind of Niño. I think El Niño is out for Winter 11-12. In my opinion, some people are underestimating the resurgence of the La Niña. Although the highest probability is for a negative-neutral winter or borderline weak Niña, I do think it's possible we could get into moderate territory with how quickly the subsurface is cooling and this potent surge of trade winds. We also have a nice strong -PDO signal as well as an abnormally cold Humboldt/Chilean current stretching towards the ENSO regions. Today's new SST anomaly map is fairly impressive with the cold waters in all areas of the Pacific: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I think El Niño is out for Winter 11-12. In my opinion, some people are underestimating the resurgence of the La Niña. Although the highest probability is for a negative-neutral winter or borderline weak Niña, I do think it's possible we could get into moderate territory with how quickly the subsurface is cooling and this potent surge of trade winds. We also have a nice strong -PDO signal as well as an abnormally cold Humboldt/Chilean current stretching towards the ENSO regions. Today's new SST anomaly map is fairly impressive with the cold waters in all areas of the Pacific: I think we are going to see a big-time drop for the PDO numbers June/July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 i think the nina is making a comeback...look at the heat building in the midwest and the dry weather and not to mention the monthly euro depicting a very mild and dry fall...ala typical nina. Only concern I have, and this is from a met out of STL that suggests that early winter could be on the warm and dry side...his take not mine, but it won't be early active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The upwelling phase of the KW that's in the EPac right now. It didn't do much in the W part of the basin, which is par for the course this year. Also, ENSO OHC has been slowly decreasing, dissipating chances for any kind of Niño. 06JUL2011 22.2 0.0 25.8-0.1 27.1-0.1 28.5-0.1 13JUL2011 21.9 0.0 25.7 0.1 27.1-0.1 28.5 0.0 As anticipated, there was some slight warming, but it will be short lived, as the upwelling phase of the KW is gonna cool this anomalies for next weekly. Looking farther in the medium/long range, I think this is the peak, and the stage is being set for a general period of cooling towards a Niña for this winter. Right now I'm favoring a weak Niña over neutral cold for winter '11-'12, and even moderate is not that far fetched. I mentioned previously how the OHC was slowly declining, and this has turned pretty evident, with >+3C subsurface sea temps in the EPac disappearing, and new bubbles of cooler water making it's way to the surface. OHC, steadily declining: This is probably an overreaction to the latest trends, but the latest members of the CFS ENSO forecast are almost all below the consensus average, which troughs at moderate Niña.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 JAMSTEC did fairly well last year if I remember right. It's been indicating a Nina since the April run which started the Dec-Feb prediction timeframe. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I almost wonder if we aren't heading into a cycle like we hit back in the 30s. There were a number of brutal summers back then. Last summer was the fifth warmest on record nationally, with 12 states and the District of Columbia recording their hottest summer on record. This summer is also shaping up to be a top ten overall, and could be the hottest on records in the Southern Plains. I believe June was the 25th warmest on record, and July will likely be in the top five (with a chance at beating 1936 and 2006 to become the hottest). With another Nina on the way (which some are forecasting to become moderate or strong), one would expect the multiyear southern drought to continue to intensify, perhaps setting the stage for another scorching summer in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I almost wonder if we aren't heading into a cycle like we hit back in the 30s. There were a number of brutal summers back then. Last summer was the fifth warmest on record nationally, with 12 states and the District of Columbia recording their hottest summer on record. This summer is also shaping up to be a top ten overall, and could be the hottest on records in the Southern Plains. I believe June was the 25th warmest on record, and July will likely be in the top five (with a chance at beating 1936 and 2006 to become the hottest). With another Nina on the way (which some are forecasting to become moderate or strong), one would expect the multiyear southern drought to continue to intensify, perhaps setting the stage for another scorching summer in 2012. who is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looks like 2008-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 This wouldn't be good regarding the potential for severe weather outbreaks in Spring, with the Nina perhaps even stronger in April than this year (-0.75 this year versus -1 or even slightly less next year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Looks like 2008-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 And the ECMWF follows suit, now only showing 2 members slightly above 0 by Jan '12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Little change overall, but easterlies will be raging over the dateline for several days at least, so next week should bring a cooler update. 13JUL2011 21.9 0.0 25.7 0.1 27.1-0.1 28.5 0.0 20JUL2011 22.1 0.4 25.6 0.1 26.9-0.1 28.4-0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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