Why the Stratosphere Gave a False ENSO Signal in the Spring

[skierinvermont]

Of course, skier must point out how warm it is, even when it isn't.

Show me the .2-.3C/decade and then we'll talk.

I'm not saying it's warm. I'm correcting blatant factual errors. I guess you don't understand the difference. Still don't know why you're bringing AGW into an ENSO thread.

[HM]

Agree completely, thats what I was trying to convey (regarding MJO/AAM activity in more of a 10 day timeframe rather than farther out). Your knowledge base is definitely superior to mine, so really I'm more of a student here

With the equatorial stratosphere coming in quite chilly, I assume you meant that the ENSO SST's would have more tendancy to warm rather than cool despite intraseasonal variability being the governing factor??

I just see it very hard, after a strong El Nino and Hefty Nina, for the climate system to produce another strong nino. From what I've been taught, the climate system tends to balance itself out, so extremes are met with extremes, and regulation is acheived through this aspect(?).

What you essentially witnessed was the effects of a late and strong final warming, which dwarfed the QBO signal and allowed for a cool stratosphere over the Equator. This combined with the equinox allowed for a series of robust/fast MJO waves and the subsequent warming. Outside of this, I don't feel other agents on a larger-scale are favorable for a basin-wide El Niño. Counter to some of the posts in this thread, the increased solar activity was not and is not responsible for the warming. In fact, when you dig a little deeper, you'll find it is the opposite. Unfortunately, when taking the solar route here, I'm left perplexed from the unusual cycle and lack of data from a comparable past cycle. A few theories have also surfaced about potentially already reaching S_max but I am not sure yet on their validity. But if that ends up being true and we have a very long and weak descending solar cycle, then some of the possible associations made in the past with solar cycles may not work out so well. Once again, we are left stranded in the face of a "first time."

[BethesdaWX]

What you essentially witnessed was the effects of a late and strong final warming, which dwarfed the QBO signal and allowed for a cool stratosphere over the Equator. This combined with the equinox allowed for a series of robust/fast MJO waves and the subsequent warming. Outside of this, I don't feel other agents on a larger-scale are favorable for a basin-wide El Niño. Counter to some of the posts in this thread, the increased solar activity was not and is not responsible for the warming. In fact, when you dig a little deeper, you'll find it is the opposite. Unfortunately, when taking the solar route here, I'm left perplexed from the unusual cycle and lack of data from a comparable past cycle. A few theories have also surfaced about potentially already reaching S_max but I am not sure yet on their validity. But if that ends up being true and we have a very long and weak descending solar cycle, then some of the possible associations made in the past with solar cycles may not work out so well. Once again, we are left stranded in the face of a "first time."

Ah thanks for the Info, didn't really think about the Equinox at all. I'm wondering if you believe that a +AAM would have any immediate/near term impacts on the global climate? I can't seem to figure that one out.

There are some satellites that actually show an Uptick in Visible Light (SW) from the Sun in this solar minimum until early 2010, which is the dead opposite of observed SW changes in the past, so curious if that could effect ENSO if true?

Also, do you believe that the amount of SW radiation (UVA and UVB rays, to be specific) reaching the Earth's surface could have an impact on ENSO? Thats a bit of a curiosity to me.

[HM]

Ah thanks for the Info, didn't really think about the Equinox at all. I'm wondering if you believe that a +AAM would have any immediate/near term impacts on the global climate? I can't seem to figure that one out.

There are some satellites that actually show an Uptick in Visible Light (SW) from the Sun in this solar minimum until early 2010, which is the dead opposite of observed SW changes in the past, so curious if that could effect ENSO if true?

Also, do you believe that the amount of SW radiation (UVA and UVB rays, to be specific) reaching the Earth's surface could have an impact on ENSO? Thats a bit of a curiosity to me.

Intraseasonal variability can have short-term effects on global climate and essentially bridge the gap between climate and medium range, otherwise known as "no man's land." However, in this sensitive 2-4 week period, there is more to it and starts to become more cluttered by more parameters that can affect temperatures. So, this is probably why running a global temp and AAM together may not get you anywhere in this period of time. Obviously in a longer-term sense, yes +GLAAM will be correlated with warmer temps, acting as a proxy for ENSO.

Without IR and VIS light, obviously the Earth would be freezing. If you could, send me the SW data you are looking at. I think the system is more complex but I see the reasoning...

Radiation will affect ozone and upper level clouds, particularly cirrus. I could see this potentially being one of the regulators in the ENSO cycle. I think between this and solar particles, you could essentially have your causation.

[BethesdaWX]

Intraseasonal variability can have short-term effects on global climate and essentially bridge the gap between climate and medium range, otherwise known as "no man's land." However, in this sensitive 2-4 week period, there is more to it and starts to become more cluttered by more parameters that can affect temperatures. So, this is probably why running a global temp and AAM together may not get you anywhere in this period of time. Obviously in a longer-term sense, yes +GLAAM will be correlated with warmer temps, acting as a proxy for ENSO.

Without IR and VIS light, obviously the Earth would be freezing. If you could, send me the SW data you are looking at. I think the system is more complex but I see the reasoning...

Radiation will affect ozone and upper level clouds, particularly cirrus. I could see this potentially being one of the regulators in the ENSO cycle. I think between this and solar particles, you could essentially have your causation.

This is what I was reading, but perhaps I'm misunderstanding something?

http://www.nature.co...s.2010.519.html

I'm not sure what to think about it, what do you think? So if Vsisible Light SW Radiation increases(or has increased) during a Solar Min as claimed, then perhaps it affects the Climate Systems in ways that may dictate certain ENSO tendancies?

I do know that just a 2% decrease in Global Cloud Cover equates to about 1.2W/m^2 of increased heat into the lower atmosphere/oceans, including the ENSO regions, but would that affect ENSO (Or the AAM/MJO) in any way?

I'm Trying to Avoid the Magnetic Sun/GCR/Cloud topic as per your request..... but would it be surprising if cloud numbers over Long Periods of Time can vary by as much as 4-5% (smoothed) over a timescale of centuries, affecting the ENSO system? Some proxies show periods of weaker ENSO multi decade/Century, even millenium, and other show periods of stronger ENSO events at the same timeframe, these correlate somewhat to changes in BE^10 Isotopes, but not sure why, I've been curious about this for many years now, but cannot find much literature on the subject.

Apologies if this is a bit off topic.

[HM]

This is what I was reading, but perhaps I'm misunderstanding something?

http://www.nature.co...s.2010.519.html

I'm not sure what to think about it, what do you think? So if Vsisible Light SW Radiation increases(or has increased) during a Solar Min as claimed, then perhaps it affects the Climate Systems in ways that may dictate certain ENSO tendancies?

I do know that just a 2% decrease in Global Cloud Cover equates to about 1.2W/m^2 of increased heat into the lower atmosphere/oceans, including the ENSO regions, but would that affect ENSO (Or the AAM/MJO) in any way?

I'm Trying to Avoid the Magnetic Sun/GCR/Cloud topic as per your request..... but would it be surprising if cloud numbers over Long Periods of Time can vary by as much as 4-5% (smoothed) over a timescale of centuries, affecting the ENSO system? Some proxies show periods of weaker ENSO multi decade/Century, even millenium, and other show periods of stronger ENSO events at the same timeframe, these correlate somewhat to changes in BE^10 Isotopes, but not sure why, I've been curious about this for many years now, but cannot find much literature on the subject.

Apologies if this is a bit off topic.

The understanding of clouds and their role on climate is still misunderstood, especially when it comes to ENSO. I will avoid talking about this further; however, I will say that the link you gave me didn't find that solar minimums are having increased SW. The scientists analyzed the 2004 to 2007 period, which was the declining phase of the solar cycle. There were several large flares during this time and geomag storms despite the overall cycle declining. Things don't work smoothly on a scale of 3 years in the sense of solar activity. They also didn't take into account the Hale Cycle.

By the way, when I asked for a link, I meant to the actual SW data so we could manipulate it ourselves.

[HM]

Latest weekly ENSO numbers:

Niño 4: -0.2

Niño 3.4: -0.2

Niño 3: 0.0

Niño 1.2: +0.5

As this latest MJO wave subsides, the tendency is beginning to drop in the AAM and the atmospheric winds have responded.

All the latest trend charts from the equatorial stratosphere remain well below normal. Some levels are still flirting with record territory.

Latest Numbers:

Niño 4: -0.3

Niño 3.4: -0.2

Niño 3: 0.0

Niño 1.2: +0.2

With the mid-June -AO coming up, I wonder what kind of response we will get in the Tropics...

[am19psu]

With the mid-June -AO coming up, I wonder what kind of response we will get in the Tropics...

HM knows the first rule of show business - always leave your audience wanting more...

[HM]

HM knows the first rule of show business - always leave your audience wanting more...

Or......I actually have no idea and I'm asking.

I could see it affecting ENSO in both ways, so I am not sure. What we do know is that it will push the subtropical ridges southward, which could enhance trade winds. However, it also seems to lower pressures in the eastern Pacific, aiding in warming.

[tacoman25]

Looks like the ENSO warming has stopped, at least for now. 3.4 has held steady the last couple weeks.

Perhaps a direct response to HM's thread?

[HM]

Looks like the ENSO warming has stopped, at least for now. 3.4 has held steady the last couple weeks.

Perhaps a direct response to HM's thread?

Yes, I have been on the neutral ENSO team so this is good to see. Do you think it was the final warning that might have aided in the ENSO warming besides climo (I always look forward to your thoughts)?

By the way, anyone notice that when the sun woke up again, the warming halted? So much for that idea earlier in the thread.

The CHI waves are still more vigorous than usual and a new MJO may get going soon. The latest stratospheric numbers show that things are modifying from both the polar regions and the tropical regions a bit as the warming downwells into the troposphere across the Arctic, allowing for the 70-30mb layer to cool again.

[wxmx]

Looks like the ENSO warming has stopped, at least for now. 3.4 has held steady the last couple weeks.

Perhaps a direct response to HM's thread?

There might be some slight cooling in the short term, specially in the eastern regions. I see little chance of any kind of Niño this year

[tacoman25]

Yes, I have been on the neutral ENSO team so this is good to see. Do you think it was the final warning that might have aided in the ENSO warming besides climo (I always look forward to your thoughts)?

I honestly don't know, SW is an area I need to do more research in. The obvious answer would be the relaxation in +SOI which had been so strong for awhile. This allowed warmer sub-surface waters to affect the surface more, I think. Beyond that, what's going on in the stratosphere and how it may effect ENSO is your area of expertise.

[HM]

I honestly don't know, SW is an area I need to do more research in. The obvious answer would be the relaxation in +SOI which had been so strong for awhile. This allowed warmer sub-surface waters to affect the surface more, I think. Beyond that, what's going on in the stratosphere and how it may effect ENSO is your area of expertise.

Alright, cool...thanks for the response. If there is anything in the original post that is unclear, always feel free to harass me.

I am fairly confident that the FW is why the warming / -SOI was stronger than your typical relaxation period after first-year La Niña winters. I didn't want to venture too far into the theoretical side of things, just so we could focus more on the direct influences instead.

[nzucker]

Alright, cool...thanks for the response. If there is anything in the original post that is unclear, always feel free to harass me.

I am fairly confident that the FW is why the warming / -SOI was stronger than your typical relaxation period after first-year La Niña winters. I didn't want to venture too far into the theoretical side of things, just so we could focus more on the direct influences instead.

We should get a pretty good period of +SOI coming up with the trade winds increasing:

[uncle W]

using the oni index for measuring enso it shows some interesting stats...any negative/ la nina year that went positive became an el nino...

1951

1957

1963

1965

1968

1972

1976

1986

1988

2002

2006

2009

1961 is the only weak negative that became weak positive and back to negative...-0.2 0.2 -0.6

Any negative that got to neutral 0.0 dropped back to negative the next year...

1960 -0.3 0.0 -0.2

1967 -0.6 0.0 -0.5

1996 -0.7 0.0 -0.4

2008 -1.4 0.0 -0.6

Other negatives/la nina's were multiple years...

2011 -1.3 ???????

[HM]

Latest Numbers:

Niño 4: -0.3

Niño 3.4: -0.2

Niño 3: 0.0

Niño 1.2: +0.2

With the mid-June -AO coming up, I wonder what kind of response we will get in the Tropics...

Niño 4: -0.2

Niño 3.4: -0.1

Niño 3: -0.1

Niño 1+2: +0.7

Latest global 30mb temps are starting to look -QBO-like, while 50mb remains +QBO-like.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[HM]

June 13 weeklies:

Niño 4: -0.2

Niño 3.4: 0.0

Niño 3: +0.2

Niño 1.2: +0.9

Latest MEI index has come up substantially:

2010 1.148 1.518 1.395 .862 .548 -.434 -1.204 -1.825 -2.017 -1.937 -1.577 -1.552

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368

Latest 30mb and 50mb QBO numbers for May are in:

30mb

2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97

2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02

50mb

2010 1.74 0.78 -0.34 -6.57 -12.68 -17.59 -18.32 -12.51 -4.30 4.07 8.58 8.51

2011 6.00 6.02 6.31 6.25 8.24

May seems like it will be the peak +QBO month at 50mb. Based on years in the past, this means that May will have the relative GLAAM maximum. One of the best examples of this relationship was 1993. There was a relative GLAAM maximum in May:

1993 1.43 1.32 1.25 1.17 1.34 1.02 0.89 0.52 0.49

At the time of the +QBO 50mb max:

1993 3.62 4.46 4.64 7.58 10.78 9.56 6.40 3.99 4.69

This caused the trimonthly niño 3.4 values to have an unusual warming during this time (granted this wasn't the only thing going on at the time).

1993: +0.3 +0.4 +0.6 +0.7 +0.8 +0.7 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.3 +0.2

The AMJ trimonthly was indeed the warmest.

Pretty cool huh?

[wxmx]

June 13 weeklies:

Niño 4: -0.2

Niño 3.4: 0.0

Niño 3: +0.2

Niño 1.2: +0.9

Latest MEI index has come up substantially:

2010 1.148 1.518 1.395 .862 .548 -.434 -1.204 -1.825 -2.017 -1.937 -1.577 -1.552

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368

Latest 30mb and 50mb QBO numbers for May are in:

30mb

2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97

2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02

50mb

2010 1.74 0.78 -0.34 -6.57 -12.68 -17.59 -18.32 -12.51 -4.30 4.07 8.58 8.51

2011 6.00 6.02 6.31 6.25 8.24

May seems like it will be the peak +QBO month at 50mb. Based on years in the past, this means that May will have the relative GLAAM maximum. One of the best examples of this relationship was 1993. There was a relative GLAAM maximum in May:

1993 1.43 1.32 1.25 1.17 1.34 1.02 0.89 0.52 0.49

At the time of the +QBO 50mb max:

1993 3.62 4.46 4.64 7.58 10.78 9.56 6.40 3.99 4.69

This caused the trimonthly niño 3.4 values to have an unusual warming during this time (granted this wasn't the only thing going on at the time).

1993: +0.3 +0.4 +0.6 +0.7 +0.8 +0.7 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.3 +0.2

The AMJ trimonthly was indeed the warmest.

Pretty cool huh?

My take is that we are near the warming peak, and the warming eq stratosphere, the declining OHC and the -PDO will eventually drive the ENSO very close to Niña territory (and I'm not touching the sun for now). Clearly, the ENSO models have hinted at a slight dip trend around mid/late summer, but I think it might be a bit sooner and probably stronger... what's your take on this HM?

[rainstorm]

My take is that we are near the warming peak, and the warming eq stratosphere, the declining OHC and the -PDO will eventually drive the ENSO very close to Niña territory (and I'm not touching the sun for now). Clearly, the ENSO models have hinted at a slight dip trend around mid/late summer, but I think it might be a bit sooner and probably stronger... what's your take on this HM?

i read where you think this may be a 2005 like cane season. is ENSO headed in that direction?

[wxmx]

i read where you think this may be a 2005 like cane season. is ENSO headed in that direction?

I didn't say it was going to be a 2005 like season, I said the we might have a favorable ENSO neutral this year, where the shear might be Niña like and the ENSO SSTs not as cold to preclude MJO propagation towards the Atlantic, like 2010 was... similar to 2005. I still stand by that, but number wise it's a very very low probability we'll see a 2005 this year, though it looks that it will be very active in the Atl, with 16 NS looking a bit on the low end...

[OKpowdah]

I didn't say it was going to be a 2005 like season, I said the we might have a favorable ENSO neutral this year, where the shear might be Niña like and the ENSO SSTs not as cold to preclude MJO propagation towards the Atlantic, like 2010 was... similar to 2005. I still stand by that, but number wise it's a very very low probability we'll see a 2005 this year, though it looks that it will be very active in the Atl, with 16 NS looking a bit on the low end...

Disagree. The start of the season could certainly be active, but I think we'll see an early end (very much in contrary to 2005), as QBO easterlies descend, imposing warm stratospheric temperature anomalies off the equator.

I'm sticking with the numbers I posted in February: 14/8/5, with 12 storms between June-September

[MN Transplant]

My take is that we are near the warming peak, and the warming eq stratosphere, the declining OHC and the -PDO will eventually drive the ENSO very close to Niña territory (and I'm not touching the sun for now). Clearly, the ENSO models have hinted at a slight dip trend around mid/late summer, but I think it might be a bit sooner and probably stronger... what's your take on this HM?

Can you expand on that?

[wxmx]

Can you expand on that?

Sorry, I should have said that what I see as a short term decline that should continue in the immediate future.

There's a peak in April with a plateau in May, so no real trend here. But looking at the shorter term, the warmer subsurface temps near the dateline and just west have definitely cooled, albeit only slightly, but I think they will continue that trend with no WWB on the horizon to push the warm water east.

In the figure above you can see the timeline past peak of the OHC...almost a wash, but the very important dateline and just west shows OHC reduction.

At peak (fig. above)

...and right now. I'm focusing again around the dateline and just west mostly

Again, this is really just a short term trend, and mostly on the western part of the ENSO regions, which I think are crucial for warming.

To expand my original post the 850mb wind forecasts show that there's no evidence of a WWB in the short term

...and the latest CFS showing we're close to warming peak (which I think is occurring right now)

[wxmx]

Disagree. The start of the season could certainly be active, but I think we'll see an early end (very much in contrary to 2005), as QBO easterlies descend, imposing warm stratospheric temperature anomalies off the equator.

I'm sticking with the numbers I posted in February: 14/8/5, with 12 storms between June-September

I give the QBO little weight compared to ENSO and MDR SSTs. The stratosphere is quite cool to begin with, and other than deep tropical cyclones (<10N), there's probably a negligible effect on # storms. Also, I think descending QBO easterlies would cool the equator and tropics, and warm the subtropics.

[OKpowdah]

I give the QBO little weight compared to ENSO and MDR SSTs. The stratosphere is quite cool to begin with, and other than deep tropical cyclones (<10N), there's probably a negligible effect on # storms. Also, I think descending QBO easterlies would cool the equator and tropics, and warm the subtropics.

Perhaps, but a warmer stratosphere results in a lower tropopause and suppressed convection. The descending QBO easterlies results in a warming stratosphere with greatest magnitude near15N, which we will likely begin to see by September

[am19psu]

I thought I had read information somewhere (and it might have been in Tuscon last year, so it might not even be published) that the QBO is less important during strong +AMO years because the SSTs render the tropopause temperature insignificant in the MPI calculation.

[MN Transplant]

Sorry, I should have said that what I see as a short term decline that should continue in the immediate future.

Thanks. Good stuff.

[wxmx]

My take is that we are near the warming peak, and the warming eq stratosphere, the declining OHC and the -PDO will eventually drive the ENSO very close to Niña territory (and I'm not touching the sun for now). Clearly, the ENSO models have hinted at a slight dip trend around mid/late summer, but I think it might be a bit sooner and probably stronger... what's your take on this HM?

June 20th weeklies

ENSO 1+2: +0.8 (+0.9)

ENSO 3 +0.2 (+0.2)

ENSO 3.4 -0.1 (0.0)

ENSO 4 -0.3 (-0.2)

* Values inside parenthesis denote Jun 13th weeklies

First declines of ENSO regions 3.4 and 4 since Feb and Jan this year respectively. Of course, it's just one weekly, and it could be just the wane phase of continued warming, but I still think it's not the case.

[wxmx]

The latest CFS agrees with me