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Model runs for 12/7-8 wintry threat

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

While I agree this threat is mostly dead. I don't think you can completely right it off yet. It's still more than 100 hours away and looking at the GFS, it wouldn't take much more amplification for the disturbance to sling a little moisture our way. I'll give it until tomorrow before I completely write it off.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
Posted

While I agree this threat is mostly dead. I don't think you can completely right it off yet. It's still more than 100 hours away and looking at the GFS, it wouldn't take much more amplification for the disturbance to sling a little moisture our way. I'll give it until tomorrow before I completely write it off.

It would be a hell of a model trend if it showed back up.:arrowhead:

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

While I agree this threat is mostly dead. I don't think you can completely right it off yet. It's still more than 100 hours away and looking at the GFS, it wouldn't take much more amplification for the disturbance to sling a little moisture our way. I'll give it until tomorrow before I completely write it off.

True. Not much time for a trend, though. Then again, this IS the SE, and things do tend to change rather quickly in the case of winter scenarios. One thing we would like to see if there is going to any chance of that thing affecting us is this clipper system not growing substantially powerful when it exits the coast and curves toward Maine. Having just enough cold air for supporting frozen precipitation will suffice, allowing our storm system to turn more northeastward (assuming that it does find a way to amplify).

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Wild Weather Monger

Wild Weather Monger

Posted
Posted

Seems that this little system has trended a bit stronger with today's runs.

Though not an impressive system, it does now seem quite possible for some areas of the deep south to have at least some curiosity flakes. Won't take but a tad more amplification for parts of Central Mississippi and Alabama to have light accumulations.

gfs_500_036s.gif

gfs_500_048s.gif

Jackson NWS discussion is interesting.

FOR TUE...THE SFC HIGH WILL HOLD FIRM AS OUR NEXT WEATHER FEATURE

DIVES SE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CLIPPER TYPE FEATURE WILL

SERVE TO PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT FOR TUE NIGHT AND BRING THE REGION

THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON...THE

LEADING EDGE OF THE LIFT WILL HELP GENERATE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL

CLOUDS WHICH WILL STEADILY THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DEEPER ASCENT

NEARS. THE BEST LIFT WILL ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY

PUSH EAST THROUGH EARLY WED AM. TO START...THERE WILL BE A DECENT

AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB. THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT SHOULD HELP

REMOVE A GOOD BIT OF THIS...BUT THERE ARE STILL QUESTION MARKS ON IF

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT LEFT TO ALLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ONCE

THE COLUMN IS SATURATED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SNOW REACHING THE

GROUND. OVERALL...THERE ATMS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO

ONLY SUPPORT SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS

THE CWA AT THE PERFECT TIME FOR SNOW AND POTENTIAL LIGHT

ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME...I WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE RECENT

GUID AND HAVE SOME ACCUMULATION FROM A DUSTING TO POSSIBLY 1/2

INCH. I WILL ALSO STICK WITH THE GUID POPS WHICH ARE OFFERING

20-30%. I WOULD LIKE TO GO A BIT HIGHER...BUT FEEL THERE ARE TOO

MANY LIMITING FACTORS AT THIS POINT TO ACHIEVE MEASURABLE SNOW. I

FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW...THE

KEY FOR GOING HIGHER WITH POPS HAS TO DEAL WITH "WILL IT MEASURE".

SO FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE UPWARD TREND FOR SNOW WITH THIS

FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...I CAN SEE THIS POSSIBLY BEING WORTHY OF A

WINTER WEATHER ADV. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE RISK FOR THAT LIGHT

ACCUMULATION. THE PRIMARY TIME FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE

BETWEEN 2-8 AM.

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

Please try to add more to the conversation-disco than smiles, this is becoming an issue and adds nothing but clutter at the expense of your post count. :huh::unsure::wacko::blink: does not yield any relevant information, and yes, there are some-many who come here for such. :)

+1

Dang it is cold even in New Bern. Last week it was nice and warm outside. ):

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
Posted

Good bye..........I'm sure everyone will miss you.

:baby: No doubt this is because of my argument about soundings, that was supported by undisputable facts, and it upset what you thought you knew to be true.:beer:

I'm not leaving, just will not be posting much in this subforum because of folks like yourself :scooter: You should feel great knowing you're driving posters away :thumbsup:

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

:baby: No doubt this is because of my argument about soundings, that was supported by undisputable facts, and it upset what you thought you knew to be true.:beer:

I'm not leaving, just will not be posting much in this subforum because of folks like yourself :scooter: You should feel great knowing you're driving posters away :thumbsup:

You would be at home in one of the more northern sub-forums.

As far as the sounding argument goes........ I will only say this: Regardless of whether you are at sea level or 5,000 ft, If the real-time soundings show a pronounced warm nose (> +3C) above your elevation...... you will not get snow. That's a fact.

If you think that you can ignore the soundings just because you are at 2400 ft, then OK. Ask any MET about the importantance of soundings for p-type issues and see what they tell you.

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Cyclonicjunkie

Cyclonicjunkie

Posted
Posted

You would be at home in one of the more northern sub-forums.

As far as the sounding argument goes........ I will only say this: Regardless of whether you are at sea level or 5,000 ft, If the real-time soundings show a pronounced warm nose (> +3C) above your elevation...... you will not get snow. That's a fact.

If you think that you can ignore the soundings just because you are at 2400 ft, then OK. Ask any MET about the importantance of soundings for p-type issues and see what they tell you.

I'm not going to argue my points on soundings again, and I never said what you are suggesting.

If you want to read my arguments about soundings again they are here for all to see.

Good day to you.:)

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Brian

Brian

Posted
Posted

You would be at home in one of the more northern sub-forums.

As far as the sounding argument goes........ I will only say this: Regardless of whether you are at sea level or 5,000 ft, If the real-time soundings show a pronounced warm nose (> +3C) above your elevation...... you will not get snow. That's a fact.

If you think that you can ignore the soundings just because you are at 2400 ft, then OK. Ask any MET about the importantance of soundings for p-type issues and see what they tell you.

Oh, he will be back, I mean 382 posts in less than a month, yikes.....

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

:baby: No doubt this is because of my argument about soundings, that was supported by undisputable facts, and it upset what you thought you knew to be true.:beer:

I'm not leaving, just will not be posting much in this subforum because of folks like yourself :scooter: You should feel great knowing you're driving posters away :thumbsup:

This has nothing to do with soundings(although I agree with CAD on this issue) but everything to do with your attitude.:baby::gun_bandana: :gun_bandana: Again: READ MORE POST LESS

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
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Well, I guess the 12/7-8 threat didn't turn out completely dead after all with the snow flurries/showers in various locations.

By the way, my bro early in the evening (12/8) saw tiny snow flurries in the parking lot of Lowes on Abercorn in Savannah!

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EmersonGA

EmersonGA

Posted
Posted

Well, I guess the 12/7-8 threat didn't turn out completely dead after all with the snow flurries/showers in various locations.

By the way, my bro early in the evening (12/8) saw tiny snow flurries in the parking lot of Lowes on Abercorn in Savannah!

Are you living in Savannah now? I knew you talked about growing up there but I thought you lived in North Atlanta.

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