GaWx Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z Canadian looks a lot "wetter" across SE Texas and SW Louisiana at 144 hours No question that the 0Z Thu CMC is a good bit better than the lousy 0Z Thu GFS. Now, compared to the 12Z CMC, the low/main moisture/cold air is ~125 miles further south. That means that later panels would likely have the 0C 850 line close to the Gulf coast unlike the 12Z run. However, it would very likely also be drier there vs. the 12Z CMC. Regardless, this does mean that this run MAY suggest it be just cold enough for some snow near some of the Gulf coast late 12/7 to 12/8, which wasn't the case on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Whereas the 0Z Thu Euro is somewhat better than the 12Z Wed Euro for 12/8 with the further west trough axis, it still isn't far enough west to do much good. Nevertheless, it does allow for up to ~0.15" of qpf in central LA vs. none on the 12Z run and may be indicative of a better trend tomorrow. See you at 6Z. Nighty night, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I will give up on this one if we've not saw something better by 0z Sunday runs. Although I have to admit my confidence isn't exactly skyrocketing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Whereas the 0Z Thu Euro is somewhat better than the 12Z Wed Euro for 12/8 with the further west trough axis, it still isn't far enough west to do much good. Nevertheless, it does allow for up to ~0.15" of qpf in central LA vs. none on the 12Z run and may be indicative of a better trend tomorrow. See you at 6Z. Nighty night, folks. Well going out into fantasy land, the 240hr euro is actually quite interesting, with nice classical CAD setting up as the 500mb low is still parked in southeast Canada as the next upper level impulse comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 All this suppression=DEPRESSION! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Well going out into fantasy land, the 240hr euro is actually quite interesting, with nice classical CAD setting up as the 500mb low is still parked in southeast Canada as the next upper level impulse comes in. Yep that last frame is certainly interesting....verbatim though its too warm for the SE of course in those situations it usually doesn't account for the evap cooling so it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 All this suppression=DEPRESSION! Don't you worry. Bloo Q Kazoo will bring some good luck. He'll be like Superman and that huge block. You wanted cold, you got it. Currently 29 degrees here. Nice and crisp outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 still days away. I think it will swing in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thought I would post this here, in it's proper place There is still an uncertain amount of spread in the 6z GFS ens, as several members bring the precip north along the front quicker than what the op advertises, and a couple try pop a storm off the coast... 6z @ 158hrs compared to 0z @ 162hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Huffman just updated the blog and said it's about time to write this storm off. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/a-chance-of-light-snow-saturday-night-however-major-winter-storm-unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 In the southeast, how can you write a storm off 5 days in advance? I know the conditions don't appear to be going to happen but it is definately gonna be cold. As longa s we get cold we can get snow. And with the way the models flip-flop, you never know what kind of swing the next run brings. We won't know anything until our storm actually gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 In the southeast, how can you write a storm off 5 days in advance? I know the conditions don't appear to be going to happen but it is definately gonna be cold. As longa s we get cold we can get snow. And with the way the models flip-flop, you never know what kind of swing the next run brings. We won't know anything until our storm actually gets here. It's all about playing the odds and looking at the trends. It's what Allan does, he makes forecasts. He does mention things can change, but what is not arguable is that the major ensembles are trending away from something major as we get closer to the event. We usually have people on board the ship when it goes down, but seems prudent to look for the future threat at this point and be happy if something does come back. With that said, If I were in the deep south, I'd still be listening and keeping an eye on things, but areas like TN/VA/NC...........nah. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How does the Sat/Sun clipper factor into the 12/7-12/8 system? Does it's track and/or strength off of the coast effect the strong blocking high or the ability for the next system's north movement? I still think that it's too early to write off the significant winter storm possibilty this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How does the Sat/Sun clipper factor into the 12/7-12/8 system? Does it's track and/or strength off of the coast effect the strong blocking high or the ability for the next system's north movement? I still think that it's too early to write off the significant winter storm possibilty this far out. Yes, and Yes. It's all intertwined together. I think the clipper is supposed to bomb off the coast and then help strengthen the huge vortex which will act to keep us cold and unfortunately, dry. Oh yeah (off topic), but as a Vikings fan, it was very hard for me to even respond to this. hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How does the Sat/Sun clipper factor into the 12/7-12/8 system? Does it's track and/or strength off of the coast effect the strong blocking high or the ability for the next system's north movement? I still think that it's too early to write off the significant winter storm possibilty this far out. I think the GFS is overdoing the blocking anyways. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 12z GFS= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 12z says no dice outside of 312 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 12z says no dice outside of 312 hours out. Yep, the cold is a plenty but its moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yep, the cold is a plenty but its moisture starved. Zero line at 850 south of West Palm Beach mid afternoon at 150hr?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That's a very strong vortex. Maybe it's over doing it, however, the European model is showing something similar. I was hoping for weakening and a more realistic solution for the vortex. It seams very early to have such a strong vortex as depicted on the global models. How long until all of the players are better sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yep only thing of interest on the Euro so far is that system Sunday, but it might be a little to warm for snow for most of NC. Tue/Wed. storm is not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Euro has a tenth for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 From my untrained eyes it seems to me that the 12 Euro is not as cold as the GFS is through 120-168 hours. The Euro during it's whole run doesn't bring the 850 0 degree line into Florida, and the 540 line isn't as far south. Both of the GFS at 144 has it's 850 freezing line splitting Florida in half with -10 creeping into northern GA. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 From my untrained eyes it seems to me that the 12 Euro is not as cold as the GFS is through 120-168 hours. The Euro during it's whole run doesn't bring the 850 0 degree line into Florida, and the 540 line isn't as far south. Both of the GFS at 144 has it's 850 freezing line splitting Florida in half with -10 creeping into northern GA. Thoughts? GFS is always too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Euro has a tenth for me The big problem could be sfc temps. Should be interesting to see what the soundings have to say as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The big problem could be sfc temps. Should be interesting to see what the soundings have to say as we get closer. Right now, it's just really bad timing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 That's a very strong vortex. Maybe it's over doing it, however, the European model is showing something similar. I was hoping for weakening and a more realistic solution for the vortex. It seams very early to have such a strong vortex as depicted on the global models. How long until all of the players are better sampled? Yep, I think it will be of note if the gfs can nail blocking and cold so intense from this far out. Might be good for the rest of the winter to get some calibration on the model reading. All last year the gfs came north, this year it might play different with the cold bias...but I doubt it T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 When do our players come ashore? I'm probably one of few who haven't completely wrote this system off yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 When do our players come ashore? I'm probably one of few who haven't completely wrote this system off yet lol This is a done deal imo... Energy will be onshore in Cali early monday morning btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 4, 2010 Author Share Posted December 4, 2010 This is a done deal imo... Energy will be onshore in Cali early monday morning btw I agree. So, without further ado: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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