strongwxnc Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf024.html Can you post them or provide a link to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Some juicy 18z ensemble members (for some in the SE)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It is good to have a storm on so many components of the ensemble guidance this far out. This is just getting started. I don't think suppression is going to be our problem with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Give me the first one you posted. Looks to be a frame away from being most generous to MBY! I tell you I don't know which is worst when a man has to roll out at 4:15 am. Being a Snow hound hooked and waiting on midnight runs or a sports junkie and hooked on Duke Basketball/ dealing with 9;35 pm starts so the west coast can get home from work and have prime time viewing. Thank God college football is on Saturdays. Oh well heres to another sleepless winter chasing gfs fantasy storms and Duke basketball.Halftimes over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I will say this, if there is a LP area where the GFS ens is showing it in those frames I believe the precip shield would be larger. I've noticed the GFS tends to have precip fields generally smaller than they actually turn out to be most of the time. Sadly that tends to lead to the GFS underdoing WAA too. Which has cost lots of people, especially South of I-40 on the West side of the Apps some nice snow events the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 The 0Z gfs 120 hour map suggests to me that the run will not be as good as the 18z gfs due to drier, more WNW to W 500 mb flow. Let's see if this verifies through 12/7-8. I hope I'm wrong! Edit: Unfortunately, it looks to be right. The key is to get moist WSW 500 mb flow. W 500 mb flow won't normally do the trick when we're talking about trying to get a good Miller A. That is what is happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 It's looping that low though instead of sending it off the map, or something. It's nice to see that part of the pattern continue. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The 0Z gfs 120 hour map suggests to me that the run will not be as good as the 18z gfs due to drier, more WNW to W 500 mb flow. Let's see if this verifies through 12/7-8. I hope I'm wrong! I actually thought it looked better at 120 compared to previous runs today, could be wrong, but the wave seemed more detached from the mean flow, and the hp coming into the northern plains is several mb's weaker... edit: never mind, squashed at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 it just gets crushed to pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like its headed to Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 I actually thought it looked better at 120 compared to previous runs today, could be wrong, but the wave seemed more detached from the mean flow, and the hp coming into the northern plains is several mb's weaker... The key, as I see it, is to get moist WSW 500 mb flow. W 500 mb flow won't normally do the trick when we're talking about trying to get a good Miller A. Check old 500 mb maps and WSW 500 mb flow will almost always be seen. On those great Euro runs, there was WSW 500 mb flow. The 18Z run almost came around to WSW flow. That is not what is happening on this 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 its complete supression on the GFS. Just too much strong nw flow in the entire Eastern US, almost northerly flow. The Maine Vortex would have to be furthern north and relaxed for us to have hope of getting the western wave to head more northerly. The NAO block firmly established, just when we don't need it quite so strong...so bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I guess at least when the cold relaxes and we can get something to hopefully pop, the ground will have been chilled off significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Cuba may get some RN out of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That block is a monster. We ran into this a few times last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That block is a monster. We ran into this a few times last year. We didnt have to worry about it though last year. We knew we could let one or two slip by. I'm definitely worried about this winter if we dont get a snowstorm in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 The clear indication per overall model trends is that the best shot remains close to the Gulf coast. A relatively small westward deviation (from the 0Z gfs run) of the shortwave on 12/7, thus allowing moist WSW 500 mb flow to develop ahead of it over/near the Gulf coast while still keeping it just cold enough, may very well be all that is needed. An even bigger westward deviation would get more inland SE areas in on the wintry fun although likely at the expense of areas near the Gulf coast, which would be warmer. This is far from over because the potential event is still close to six days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 We didnt have to worry about it though last year. We knew we could let one or two slip by. I'm definitely worried about this winter if we dont get a snowstorm in December. Yea, me too but my expectations weren't very high going into this winter. We still might get lucky. Last winter was the most frustrating winter to me. We missed out on so many great setups. It was a fun winter but could of been a lot better. There was always a storm to track but it seemed very few worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The clear indication per overall model trends is that the best shot remains close to the Gulf coast. A relatively small westward deviation (from the 0Z gfs run) of the shortwave on 12/7, thus allowing moist WSW 500 mb flow to develop ahead of it over/near the Gufl coast while still keeping it just cold enough, may very well be all that is needed. An even bigger westward deviation would get more inland SE areas in on the wintry fun although likely at the expense of areas near the Gulf coast., which would be warmer. Keep talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yea, me too but my expectations weren't very high going into this winter. We still might get lucky. Last winter was the most frustrating winter to me. We missed out on so many great setups. It was a fun winter but could of been a lot better. There was always a storm to track but it seemed very few worked out. Did rdu end up above average? Charlotte ended up right smack dab on average(I did much better than the city though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If the Panthers go 1-15, does that mean I can use 01-02 as an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 If the Panthers go 1-15, does that mean I can use 01-02 as an analog? If Alabama goes 10-3 i think i could use 99-00 as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I just want to see blocking. At least with blocking there is a chance of reinforcing shots of cold air. I'm presently satiated with snows that last a few hours, and it's 59 the next day, and like it never happened. If it falls I want to see it for a week At this point I'm content to see the blocks form, then watch as the model modulates the strength, and brings in the cold rain for the typical borderline event. And then...if there is some real cold air coming in behind.... With Ga. luck it is still cold rain and Joe gets a foot, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I just want to see blocking. At least with blocking there is a chance of reinforcing shots of cold air. I'm presently satiated with snows that last a few hours, and it's 59 the next day, and like it never happened. If it falls I want to see it for a week At this point I'm content to see the blocks form, then watch as the model modulates the strength, and brings in the cold rain for the typical borderline event. And then...if there is some real cold air coming in behind.... With Ga. luck it is still cold rain and Joe gets a foot, lol. T I frolicked barefooted in my half inch this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'm not giving up on this system just yet. Get this Sunday and the models are showing nothing and I'll write it off. Most majory SE snows come with just a couple days notice. If that. I see the potential for the NW trend of the GFS and the fact that it almost always overdoes the cold to come into play. Assuming the cold isn't as strong, the low would be able to move further north. And if the NW trend kicks in it would move even further north, potentially even taking the SE out of this all together. This is just my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Did rdu end up above average? Charlotte ended up right smack dab on average(I did much better than the city though). Yea we ended up above average. I no it sounds crazy to end up above average and still end up frustrated but it just seemed like we missed out on some really big storms. Now this winter if we get our yearly average I will be happy. I guess it just goes to show my expectations were to high last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I frolicked barefooted in my half inch this morning. You are so inherently hateable So... you have had 3 events now...to include snow like mini flakes? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 The 0Z gfs ensemble mean trend is drier vs. the 18z gfs mean. So, overall, the 0Z gfs suite of runs is lousy. Regardless, it is still way too early to give up given that the potential event is still ~6 days out and it wouldn't take that much of a westward shift in the track of the 12/7 shortwave to get parts of the SE in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 You are so inherently hateable So... you have had 3 events now...to include snow like mini flakes? T It's so cold here now that the air is literally freezing upon contact with the temperature. ( That'll blow Bricks mind. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 00z Canadian looks a lot "wetter" across SE Texas and SW Louisiana at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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